I’m not a betting man, but back in 2016 I placed a bet that Donald Trump would win the US presidential election. I won, and my only regret was that I didn’t place the bet a bit earlier, when I could have got odds of 100 to 1.
Why did I think he’d win? Because he was a political outsider up against a political insider, Hillary Clinton, who seemed to think that it was her turn to become president like her husband Bill Clinton had been. I thought she was heading for a fall. I didn’t think she was a good candidate. Bill was a charismatic man, a bit of a charmer, and she wasn’t. And about her only achievement had been to get Bill to ban smoking in the White House: she was a killjoy.
Four years on, I think that Trump is going to be re-elected. But the reasons are very different. He’s no longer really a political outsider: how can you be a political outsider if you’re President of the United States? But now, hard as it is to imagine, he’s up against an even weaker candidate than in 2016, in the person of Joe Biden, whom a lot of people think won’t last long as president, even if he gets elected. Vote for him, and you’ll see vice-presidential candidate Kamala Harris become president. And she’s even weaker than Hillary was.
And at the same time, the Trump presidency hasn’t been a disaster. He’s been a perfectly good president. And he’s proven to be a man of remarkable character (in my opinion) for his steadfastness in the face of unrelenting attacks from the US mainstream media: he just soldiers on through. My opinion of him has risen over the past four years. I used to think he was just a showman.
So this time around, unlike last time, I think that he’s pretty much bound to win. Americans would be crazy to vote for Joe and Kamala. They’ll only vote that way if they so hate Trump that they’ll vote for anyone but him. And that’s what a Biden-Harris vote would be: it would be a vote against Trump, rather than for them, and for whatever they stand for (does anyone know?).
And it seems to me that the Trump-haters can see all this, and have begun to realise that he’s very likely to win. Hillary Clinton has said recently that if he loses, Biden shouldn’t concede. Why would she say that if she thought Trump was going to lose? She thinks he’s going to win.
In addition, I took note a week or two back that several Democrat politicians were switching sides.
Six Democrat mayors in swing state Minnesota endorse Donald Trump
Would they do that if they thought Biden would win? No: they think Trump is going to win.
Add also Noam Chomsky:
By “us” he means the Left. Looks like he’s another one who thinks Trump is going to win.
It seems like the Democrats are already resigned to losing. And now they’re threatening:
No Biden, No Peace
and trying to rig the election with mail-in voting.
They’re desperate. They’re utterly desperate.
So I think that, short of some extreme shock event, it’s going to be a landslide for Trump in November.
But I won’t be putting money on it this time: I suspect the odds won’t be anywhere near as good as they were in 2016.
It’s not just my guess: