Trump Will Win

I’m not a betting man, but back in 2016 I placed a bet that Donald Trump would win the US presidential election. I won, and my only regret was that I didn’t place the bet a bit earlier, when I could have got odds of 100 to 1.

Why did I think he’d win? Because he was a political outsider up against a political insider, Hillary Clinton, who seemed to think that it was her turn to become president like her husband Bill Clinton had been. I thought she was heading for a fall. I didn’t think she was a good candidate. Bill was a charismatic man, a bit of a charmer, and she wasn’t. And about her only achievement had been to get Bill to ban smoking in the White House: she was a killjoy.

Four years on, I think that Trump is going to be re-elected. But the reasons are very different. He’s no longer really a political outsider: how can you be a political outsider if you’re President of the United States? But now, hard as it is to imagine, he’s up against an even weaker candidate than in 2016, in the person of Joe Biden, whom a lot of people think won’t last long as president, even if he gets elected. Vote for him, and you’ll see vice-presidential candidate Kamala Harris become president. And she’s even weaker than Hillary was.

And at the same time, the Trump presidency hasn’t been a disaster. He’s been a perfectly good president. And he’s proven to be a man of remarkable character (in my opinion) for his steadfastness in the face of unrelenting attacks from the US mainstream media: he just soldiers on through. My opinion of him has risen over the past four years. I used to think he was just a showman.

So this time around, unlike last time, I think that he’s pretty much bound to win. Americans would be crazy to vote for Joe and Kamala. They’ll only vote that way if they so hate Trump that they’ll vote for anyone but him. And that’s what a Biden-Harris vote would be: it would be a vote against Trump, rather than for them, and for whatever they stand for (does anyone know?).

And it seems to me that the Trump-haters can see all this, and have begun to realise that he’s very likely to win. Hillary Clinton has said recently that if he loses, Biden shouldn’t concede. Why would she say that if she thought Trump was going to lose? She thinks he’s going to win.

In addition, I took note a week or two back that several Democrat politicians were switching sides.

Six Democrat mayors in swing state Minnesota endorse Donald Trump

Would they do that if they thought Biden would win? No: they think Trump is going to win.

Add also Noam Chomsky:

Trump will destroy us if he wins.

By “us” he means the Left. Looks like he’s another one who thinks Trump is going to win.

It seems like the Democrats are already resigned to losing. And now they’re threatening:

No Biden, No Peace

and trying to rig the election with mail-in voting.

They’re desperate. They’re utterly desperate.

So I think that, short of some extreme shock event, it’s going to be a landslide for Trump in November.

But I won’t be putting money on it this time: I suspect the odds won’t be anywhere near as good as they were in 2016.

It’s not just my guess:

About Frank Davis

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16 Responses to Trump Will Win

  1. Roobeedoo2 says:

    I’ve been listening to Tim Pool’s podcasts. He’s a Leftie journalist who’s been following the riots closely, and he’s gone all in for Trump…

  2. RdM says:

    Miles Mathis reckoned

    PAPER UPDATE, added 1/11/16, Noam Chomsky is and always has been a Spook. I have appended a long email I received from a reader—a reader who was a graduate student in linguistics at MIT. He confirms my reading of Chomsky, adding some tasty bits.

    Click to access chom.pdf

    Although I can’t – don’t – believe everything he writes, some pieces are interesting.

    I haven’t yet watched the above video.

  3. Mark Jarratt says:

    I too am not much of a gambler (except I smoke, a grossly exaggerated threat like CV19), but wagered Trump would win over the other odious entitled candidate. Almost all my family, friends or colleagues disagreed, with 100% certainty. I have no confidence in the intellectual acuity or analytical ability of most politicians in any event, starkly shown by the worst public policy failure in history, the hysterical overreaction to CV19. No illness justifies suspending democracy, and the precautionary principle has failed. Current circumstances are a predictable consequence of the mysophobic risk averse neurotic authoritarianism of elites, scared of the world, and with misplaced unsupportable faith in government as saviour.

  4. nessimmersion says:

    Polls and public surveys for political opinion in the US now suffer from an insurmountable handicap.
    The penalties for public support of Trump can amount to losing your job. Spouse losing job, children targeted in school, your company losing contracts, social services targeting you,/kids, govt tax auditors targeting you.
    If you have a poster or sign, your house may be attacked, burnt ot garden vandalised, car keyed or worse etc etc.
    In view of those potential penalties for having a non woke political opinion, how many people will keep their head down until the privacy of the voting booth?

    • Rose says:

      A lot, that’s why our pollsters get it wrong, it’s called the Shy Tory effect, people used to put posters in their windows in the past and be open in their affiliations,but not for a long while now.
      Unless you want a stranger screaming in your face or a brick through your window you keep your opinions to yourself.

  5. Dmitry says:

    Back in 2016 I was the only member of our club who predicted Trump’s victory. But this year I’ll risk making a very different bet. I’ll say that nobody will win. It will be total chaos, with 2 people claiming victory, and it may be someone else who’ll temporary will try to rule the land.

  6. waltc says:

    Al Franken won his first term senatorial seat when, a few days after the results showed he lost, a huge box of untallied ballots was miraculously found somewhere and which then put him over the top by something like 600 votes. The Democrats and the media are already preparing us for a “seeming” Trump victory on election night Nov 3 but several (even key states like Ohio) have said they’ll count mail in votes for an additional 4 to 10 (!) days. Imagine how many votes can be miraculously found somewhere in ten days.Then in the wake of that imagine the lawsuits, and demands for recounts, and questioning of the validity of unpostmarked ballots and meanwhile the intensified violence in the streets.

  7. Clicky says:

  8. Rose says:


    Thwaites: ‘Doomsday Glacier’ vulnerability seen in new maps BBC
    6 hours ago

    “Scientists may just have identified Thwaites Glacier’s Achilles heel.
    This Antarctic colossus is melting at a rapid rate, dumping billions of tonnes of ice in the ocean every year and pushing up global sea-levels.

    Now, a UK-US team has surveyed the deep seafloor channels in front of the glacier that almost certainly provide the access for warm water to infiltrate and attack Thwaites’ underside.
    It’s information that will be used to try to predict the ice stream’s future.

    “These channels had not been mapped before in this kind of detail, and what we’ve discovered is that they’re actually much bigger than anyone thought – up to 600m deep. Think of six football pitches back to back,” said Dr Kelly Hogan from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS).

    “And because they are so deep, and so wide – this allows a lot more water to get at, and melt, Thwaites’ floating front as well as its ice that rests on the seabed,” she told BBC News.”

    “almost certainly provide the access for warm water to infiltrate and attack Thwaites’ underside”

    Thwaites Glacier: Why Did The BBC Fail To Mention The Volcanoes Underneath?

    “Scientists have known for years that subglacial volcanoes and other geothermal “hotspots” are contributing to the melting of the Thwaites Glacier. Why did the BBC fail to mention these facts in its recent report?”

    Scientists discover 91 volcanoes below Antarctic ice sheet

    “This is in addition to 47 already known about and eruption would melt more ice in region affected by climate change
    The project, by Edinburgh University researchers, has revealed almost 100 volcanoes – with the highest as tall as the Eiger, which stands at almost 4,000 metres in Switzerland.
    Geologists say this huge region is likely to dwarf that of east Africa’s volcanic ridge, currently rated the densest concentration of volcanoes in the world.
    Volcanic eruptions may not reach the surface but could melt the ice from beneath and drastically destabilise it.”

  9. Dr Evil says:

    I too bet on trump winning and made just under £500. He will win again. Before this damn virus employment in the US was rocketing upwards. It will again. if he says he will do stuff, stuff happens.

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