Untrue Normality

Guardian:

The government is reportedly ready to let pub beer gardens in England reopen from 22 June as part of plans drawn up by a group of ministers, dubbed the “Save Summer Six”, who are looking at ways to restart the hospitality industry earlier than initially planned.

The proposals, first reported in the Financial Times, would allow some of the 27,000 pubs that have outdoor space to serve customers for the first time in three months.

Martin, the chairman of JD Wetherspoon, said: “Few pubs will be able to make a profit using outdoor space only but partial reopening will provide a psychological boost to a beleaguered industry.

“It will signal the intent of the government to make progress towards normality, which will be welcome.”

It won’t be true normality.

True normality ended on 1 July 2007.

About Frank Davis

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20 Responses to Untrue Normality

  1. Mark Jarratt says:

    Glad you are back in fine form Frank. Keep it up. Many thanks also to other blog commenters.
    This is an interesting analysis by the legendary Chris Snowdon. He includes links to your blog posts on his Velvet Glove Iron Fist blog, as you doubtless know.

    Click to access False-Economies.pdf


    Mark in Sydney, Australia.

  2. Timothy Goodacre says:

    Absolutely right Frank. Even if the pub gardens do reopen you will get all the non smokers demanding smoking be banned !

  3. Doug says:

    I guess they figure that COVID risks are “minimal” on outdoor patios. It is too bad that they can’t see that supposed second hand smoke risks are just as “minimal”.
    The same logic needs top be applied to both COVID and Smoking before outdoor patios can return to being normal.

  4. Doug says:

    So, to restart the economy, it is OK to risk sudden deaths from COVID, but NOT OK to risk developing health problems over a lifetime due to SHS? All risks should now be accepted in order to save the economy.

  5. Александра Собина says:

    And we again will quietly accept it. I feel ashamed.

    • EG says:

      Then don’t accept it., Alex. It will go out of style eventually. Just like all superstitions. They always go away.

  6. Rose says:

    Christopher Snowden

    “Large new study from Mexico: “Current smokers were 23% less likely to be diagnosed with COVID-19 compared to non-smokers.”

    Characteristics and risk factors for COVID-19 diagnosis and adverse outcomes in Mexico: an analysis of 89,756 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.04.20122481v2

  7. Rose says:

    “True normality ended on 1 July 2007”
    Yes, and I’m very glad that I got to see and enjoy the Great British Pub when it was.

    • Rose says:

      MORE evidence smokers are at less risk of Covid-19: Study of 90,000 infected patients in Mexico reveals adults addicted to cigarettes are 23% LESS likely to catch the virus
      8 June 2020

      “Smokers are less likely to be diagnosed with Covid-19 compared to those who have never touched a cigarette, another study has claimed.

      An array of research carried out since the pandemic began has shown smokers are at lower risk of getting the coronavirus.

      Now researchers in Mexico have added more weight to the evidence, which experts have called bizarre and said warrants further investigation.

      Scientists analysed data from almost 90,000 patients and found smokers were 23 per cent less likely than non-smokers to get diagnosed with Covid-19.”
      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8398191/MORE-evidence-smokers-risk-Covid-19-23-likely-catch-virus.html

  8. Rose says:

    This is a ghastly

    Louis J. Ignarro, PhD, Nobel Prize-Winning Scientist and UCLA Distinguished Professor Emeritus, explains the significance the results of this study have on nitric oxide as treatment for COVID-19.

    “Basically, this study shows that the coronavirus causes destruction of the capacity of blood vessels in the lungs to produce nitric oxide (NO). The virus destroys the vascular endothelial cells (the name for the cells that line blood vessels), which are the cells that produce NO. When NO is deficient, the result is increased blood clotting or thrombosis. The study reveals that the lungs from patients who died from COVID-19 are characterized by tiny blood clots in the lungs, which led to tissue inflammation, destruction, and pneumonia,” says Ignarro.

    Warren Zapol, MD, emeritus Anesthetist-in-Chief a at Massachusetts General Hospital and the Reginald Jenney Professor of Anaesthesia at Harvard Medical School emphasizes Ignarro’s point, stating that “The endothelial cells of the lung are the primary generators of nitric oxide,” and that “Nitric oxide is a selective pulmonary vasodilator when you breathe it. It only dilates the lung, it doesn’t dilate the body.”

    Dr. Zapol is responsible for inventing the treatment of inhaled nitric oxide for newborn babies that suffer from poor oxygen levels, leaving their skin blue. Each year, inhaled nitric oxide turns thousands of newborns from blue to pink (the healthy color).”
    https://www.ptcommunity.com/wire/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-explains-why-new-study-new-england-journal-medicine-may-point

  9. Clicky says:

  10. KurtGeek says:

    Pubs opening in June now being denied by Downing Street

  11. Rose says:

    Interesting

    Lung development may explain why some non-smokers get COPD and some heavy smokers do not
    June 8 2020

    “Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a debilitating lung condition, often develops as a result of smoking, but researchers have long puzzled over why nearly a third of cases occur in people who never smoked. Now they may finally have an answer—and it may be linked to how lungs develop in certain people.”

    “This work, stemming from the careful analysis of lung images of COPD patients, shows that an abnormal lung development may account for a large proportion of COPD risk among older adults,”

    “Smoking, asthma, or air pollution account for many COPD cases, but up to 30% of cases occur in people who never smoked, and only a minority of heavy smokers develop the disease, suggesting that there are other risk factors at play.”

    “Previous research offered a clue about a possible cause, finding that about half of older adults with COPD appeared to have low lung function early in life. Benjamin Smith, M.D., a pulmonary physician in the Department of Medicine at Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York City, who was involved in the new study, explained the phenomenon.

    When people breathe, they move air through their airways, beginning with the windpipe or trachea, which branches out to smaller airways called bronchi and bronchioles. As people grow, their airways are thought to develop in proportion to their lungs, but in some people, the airways grow smaller or larger than expected—a condition called dysanapsis— for reasons that are not clear.”

    “The MESA Lung study, based in six U.S. cities, included white, African American, Hispanic, and Chinese American people who were age 69 on average. The participants from the CanCOLD study were age 67 on average and came from nine Canadian cities. SPIROMICS, based at 12 U.S. medical centers, included people who were age 63 on average and reported 20 or more pack-years of smoking.

    In the MESA Lung and CanCOLD studies, participants with smaller airways relative to lung size were much more likely to develop COPD compared with those with the larger airways relative to lung size. The association remained after considering standard COPD risk factors, including smoking, pollutants, and asthma.”
    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-lung-non-smokers-copd-heavy-smokers.html

    Study Finds Inhaled Nitric Oxide May Benefit Patients with COPD and Pulmonary Hypertension
    2018

    Three men and three women on long-term oxygen therapy took part in the study. At the start of the study, the researchers recorded the patients’ vital statistics including heart and respiratory rates, blood pressure and oxygen partial pressure. During the study, iNO was “pulsed” when the patient began to inhale, delivering a pre-set dose to the lungs. The researchers found that this delivery method had an advantage over sending a constant concentration of NO since it “…presumably delivers the drug selectively to the healthiest well-ventilated lung segments.” In other words, the drug targeted the areas of the lungs that inhaled air reaches first. At the end of the study, the authors conducted four low-dose high-resolution CT scans, which allowed them to see the results.

    All the patients had significant improvement in the volume of blood vessels. In fact, the authors said in some cases blood vessel volume increased by more than 20 percent when compared to baseline. Additionally, nearly all lung lobes had substantial vasodilation (widening of blood vessels) with no decrease in oxygen saturation. More important, patients said they had a decrease in shortness of breath and could better tolerate exercise 24 hours after the 20-minute treatment with iNO.”
    https://phassociation.org/study-finds-inhaled-nitric-oxide-may-benefit-patients-with-copd-and-pulmonary-hypertension/

  12. Joe L. says:

    What a surprise. Yet another 180° turn from the WHO:

    Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is ‘very rare,’ WHO says

    Preliminary evidence from the earliest outbreaks indicated that the virus could spread from person-to-person contact, even if the carrier didn’t have symptoms. But WHO officials now say that while asymptomatic spread can occur, it is not the main way it’s being transmitted.

    “From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,” Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency’s Geneva headquarters. “It’s very rare.”

    Government responses should focus on detecting and isolating infected people with symptoms, and tracking anyone who might have come into contact with them, Van Kerkhove said.

    First, Neil Ferguson’s Imperial College model was proven to be complete garbage, now the WHO flip-flops and claims that asymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is “very rare.” All of the justifications for these draconian measures seem to have been proven to be false. Then why are most of us around the globe still under some form of lockdown? Why are most businesses still unable to open? Why are healthy people being forced to wear face masks in public in many US states?

  13. Rose says:

    Christopher Snowdon retweeted
    Phil
    @phil_w888
    206/

    “Massachusetts, USA (adult smoking rate was 13.4% in 2019)
    Of 104 employees at one grocery store, 25 were smokers (24%)
    Of the 21 who tested positive, 1 was a smoker (4.8%)
    “…cigarette smokers had a 90% risk reduction…”

    Conclusions: We found a considerable asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection rate among grocery workers. Employees with direct costumer exposure were 5 times more likely to test positive for SARS-CoV-2, while cigarette smokers were 90% less likely to have positive assays.

    Click to access 2020.06.08.20125120v1.full.pdf

    The study makes particularly intereting reading.

  14. Rose says:

    Here’s a blast from the past.

    Court to consider high-stakes tobacco fight
    June 8

    “Two decades after Florida reached a landmark legal settlement with tobacco companies, an appeals court is slated to hear arguments Tuesday in a dispute about more than $100 million in payments.

    R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. wants the 4th District Court of Appeal to overturn a ruling that said the company is responsible for making payments to the state related to four brands of cigarettes: Salem, Winston, Kool and Maverick.

    R.J. Reynolds was part of the 1997 settlement in which cigarette makers agreed to pay hundreds of millions of dollars a year to the state because of smoking-related health costs and, in exchange, received liability protections. An R.J. Reynolds parent company in 2015 sold the four cigarette brands to ITG Brands, LLC, which was not part of the settlement. As a result of the sale, R.J. Reynolds contends it is no longer responsible for making payments linked to the four brands.”
    https://floridapolitics.com/archives/339052-court-to-consider-high-stakes-tobacco-fight

  15. Clicky says:

  16. Jay says:

    In lockdown the rest of the population has had a taste of the lives that many smokers have lived for thirteen years.

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