CO2 matters because it’s not understood

Thinking about this

If you look at the World Health Organisation’s list of health threats, number one is climate change. Pandemics were down in third place, behind ‘non-communicable diseases’ such as diabetes and obesity.

…it seems rather bizarre, and a good reason for Trump to defund the WHO.

Why has CO2 become so important?

“The Earth warms and cools on a range of different time scales, driven by different effects. But the two controlling factors are always the amount of sunlight (solar radiation) reaching the Earth’s surface, and the amount of greenhouse gases in the air.”

One explanation might be that if there are only two principal climate controlling factors, one of them (solar radiation) is known very precisely over hundreds of thousands of years. But CO2 concentrations are not equally well understood. So far more effort is put into studying CO2. It became all-important in climate studies several decades ago, and has since then become politically important as well. CO2 is important because it’s NOT well understood. But if, as at present, CO2 levels are rising, and causing atmospheric warming, it’s not too surprising if climate scientists are worried about warming.

Nevertheless the ice core record shows that we’re currently in one of Earth’s shortlived warm interglacials. And if climate scientists don’t understand CO2, they don’t understand ice ages either. They believe that as CO2 levels fall, ice ages are likely to start, and when they rise ice ages are likely to end. But the normal course of events shown in the ice cores predicts that we’re due for a new ice age any time now, except for the fact that CO2 levels are rising, which leads most climate scientists to believe that we’re not going to see a new ice age for a very long time, and to worry about warming.

My own belief, after two years of building my own model of heat flows (I used to build such models 40 years ago) at the surface of the Earth, is that there’s another factor that determines the glacial cycle, which is the thermal resistance of large areas of snow and ice during ice ages, which results in the gradual warming of subglacial rock by geothermal heat from within the Earth, and the eventual melting of the overlying snow, in a repeat cycle of freezing and melting. This cycle seems to be unknown to climate scientists. As I see it, it’s the ice sheets that control the glacial cycle, not CO2. Small rises in CO2 can only delay the inevitable onset of the next ice age, and we may have already experienced the delay: a new ice age could start any day. But climate scientists discount geothermal heat as insignificant by comparison with solar heat and the effect of CO2.

I think that at the present rate, we’re likely to be in for a terrible shock when ice starts advancing as the next ice age begins.

 

About Frank Davis

smoker
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

18 Responses to CO2 matters because it’s not understood

  1. slugbop007 says:

    Here is an example of ASH/PHE modelling:

    calculated from a representative study of about 2,000 people

    I wonder if they use Neil Ferguson’s modelling techniques?

    slugbop007

  2. Lepercolonist says:

    The WHO is a failed enterprise. Scrap it. Obesity and global warming is more of a threat than the Wuhan virus ?

  3. RdM says:

    Since you’re reading there, you may have also seen
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/22/there-is-no-climate-emergency-2/
    and other posts, of course.

    A search on “geothermal” there finds …

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/?s=geothermal

    Meanwhile, here in NZ we have a slightly less restrictive “lock-down” happening now…

    Looks like I might even be able to go to the local library, as long as I give my details …

    Later, then

  4. Rose says:

    Bradford choir could have been ‘struck down by coronavirus two months before first recorded case in the UK’
    11 May 2020

    “Members of a Yorkshire choir may have been infected with Covid-19 in January – nearly two months before the first confirmed case in the UK.
    That ‘intriguing’ possibility is being examined by epidemiologist Dr John Wright of Bradford Royal Infirmary who began investigating after receiving an email out of the blue.

    The email was from a Bradford resident, Jane Hall, who said she and her friends had been infected with Covid-19 in January.
    Jane is a member of two choirs, Voices of Yorkshire and All Together Now Community Choir, and says that Covid-like symptoms had affected members of both choirs, beginning in early January.
    One of the first singers to get ill was the partner of a man who had been on a business trip to Wuhan, China, on December 17 or 18 and had developed a hacking cough.

    Dr Wright, writing about the choir’s experiences for the BBC, says Jane’s friend from the choir became poorly in mid-January followed by her friend Christine and then Jane herself became ill.
    Jane described having a throat ‘like I had swallowed broken glass’, a high temperature, headaches and being tired.
    She slept for two whole days and had a ‘dry unproductive cough’.
    After a while a new symptom emerged which she described as ‘like breathing through treacle’.
    Jane later noticed an impaired sense of smell.”
    https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/local-news/bradford-choir-could-been-struck-18231919

    Sounds very much like something my friend who lives in the Bradford area described to me as having had at around the same time, and now very plausible.

    “Six degrees of separation is the idea that all people are six, or fewer, social connections away from each other. Also known as the 6 Handshakes rule. As a result, a chain of “a friend of a friend” statements can be made to connect any two people in a maximum of six steps. It was originally set out by Frigyes Karinthy in 1929 and popularized in an eponymous 1990 play written by John Guare. It is sometimes generalized to the average social distance being logarithmic in the size of the population.”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_degrees_of_separation

    But I don’t smoke in the house when her small daughter is here and just got a persistant sore throat which I put down to going out to the greenhouse early in the morning and a weird shortness of breath.

    So the jury is still out.

  5. Clicky says:

  6. slugbop007 says:

    What Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and a good slice of humanity, seriously lack:

    https://www.merriam-webster.com/thesaurus/gumption

    slugbop007

  7. Rose says:

    There is a ban on tobacco in South Africa.

    SA cannot shrug off smoking as a defence against Covid-19
    Scores of studies have found fewer smokers among hospital cases than in the general population
    24 May 2020

    “A growing body of scientific evidence suggests smokers are less at risk of contracting Covid-19 than those who do not regularly ingest nicotine. But the case for cigarettes (and other nicotine products) as a defence against the disease has so far gained little traction in SA.”

    “It should be noted that many of these scientific authors go out of their way to say that they are not proponents of tobacco consumption generally. Nor do they deny that once a smoker has been hospitalised for Covid-19 the outcome is likely to be worse. But if their conclusions are correct and nicotine is indeed a powerful prophylactic against Covid-19, the implications for SA are huge.

    It is one of only three countries in the world to outlaw all trade in nicotine products in an effort to combat the disease (the others are Botswana and India). The thinking behind the ban has, however, been poorly explained. The minister who is reputed to have personally driven the ban, Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, has made only one statement on the issue, in which she implied that the main problem in the context of the pandemic was the possible sharing of mouth fluids in the case of shared and hand-rolled cigarettes.

    Dlamini-Zuma is not likely to be pleased with the news that her actions may have deprived South Africans of an effective means of protecting themselves against the depredations of the coronavirus. The medical establishment is also flustered by the findings, which means every possible alternative explanation has been advanced.

    Critics argue that the studies are not representative and that in any case smokers admitted to hospital are ashamed to admit to the habit (“shy smokers”), which distorts the data.

    What should not be denied by any scientist is that data is emerging that requires explanation. It is not good enough to simply dismiss the raw numbers as “not credible”, as a representative of the SA Medical Research Council did in a radio interview recently. The implications go beyond lifting the ban on nicotine products and raise questions about the actions of the SA government (the lockdown) and its willingness to truly engage with the science of Covid-19. Some might argue that nicotine was banned on a whim and the process represents a personal pet project, something that is the antithesis of a scientific approach.

    The SA government has a far from unblemished record regarding applying science to health issues. Dlamini-Zuma, a former health minister, sat in the Mbeki cabinet (as foreign minister) while it so distressingly failed to implement available anti-HIV/Aids measures in favour of a misplaced faith in vitamins, nutrition and the African potato.”
    https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2020-05-24-sa-cannot-shrug-off-smoking-as-a-defence-against-covid-19/

    “Nor do they deny that once a smoker has been hospitalised for Covid-19 the outcome is likely to be worse.”
    Which is even more convincing as they ban smokers from smoking if they go into hospital and nitric oxide is known to be a short lived molecule.

    • Joe L. says:

      A growing body of scientific evidence suggests smokers are less at risk of contracting Covid-19 than those who do not regularly ingest nicotine. But the case for cigarettes (and other nicotine products) as a defence against the disease has so far gained little traction in SA.

      The case for cigarettes as a defense against COVID-19 has gained little traction anywhere in the world because the media conglomerates are in the pockets of the pharmaceutical companies which will never allow this information to receive widespread publicity. The only semi-mainstream media outlets I’ve seen report on it are Breitbart News and the Daily Mail, both based in the UK. True science continues to be stifled for the sake of profits of those in the medical-industrial complex.

      Nevertheless, thank you very much, Rose for posting this. Data from yet another country supports the hypothesis that smoking has protective effects against COVID-19.

  8. Александра Собина says:

    A friend told me she had Asthma as a child till she lighted up her first fag. As far as I can remember none of my smoking friend had Asthma or other allergic troubles. I doubt it would be possible to find any data about it. Even if it was recorded some where, it was never mentioned.

  9. Rose says:

    And another

    Beyond Air Receives Approval from Health Canada to Study Nitric Oxide Generated and Delivered by the LungFit™ in COVID-19 Patients
    May 26, 2020

    “GARDEN CITY, N.Y., May 26, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Beyond Air, Inc. (NASDAQ: XAIR), a clinical-stage medical device and biopharmaceutical company focused on developing inhaled Nitric Oxide (NO) for the treatment of patients with respiratory conditions, including serious lung infections and pulmonary hypertension, and gaseous NO for the treatment of solid tumors, today announced that Health Canada approved the use of the LungFit™ system for a study in hospitalized patients diagnosed with COVID-19 caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).”

    About Nitric Oxide (NO)
    “Nitric Oxide (NO) is a powerful molecule, naturally synthesized in the human body, proven to play a critical role in a broad array of biological functions. In the airways, NO targets the vascular smooth muscle cells that surround the small resistance arteries in the lungs. Currently, exogenous inhaled NO is used in adult respiratory distress syndrome, post certain cardiac surgeries and persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn to treat hypoxemia. Additionally, NO is believed to play a key role in the innate immune system and in vitro studies suggest that NO possesses anti-microbial activity not only against common bacteria, including both gram-positive and gram-negative, but also against other diverse pathogens, including mycobacteria, viruses, fungi, yeast and parasites, and has the potential to eliminate multi-drug resistant strains.”

    So nice people giving us the facts for a change.

    The Physicochemical Nature of Sidestream Smoke Environmental Tobacco Smoke
    1986

    “Freshly generated tobacco smoke contains nitric oxide, but not nitrogen dioxide. On release into the environment, nitric oxide is gradually oxidized to nitrogen dioxide. The estimated half-life of nitric oxide is 10-20 minutes, depending on the degree of air dilution”
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK219214/

    • Rose says:

      Of course, if countries do manage to ban cigarettes, thats any possibility of self treating with nitric oxide gone and it goes back to doctors prescription only, as it was when it first came into England, but this time in huge tanks at a hospital, and only if they decide you need it.

  10. slugbop007 says:

    The Quebec Ombuds Office is going to investigate care home deaths in the Province of Quebec. I look forward to many more such inquiries around the world and a flood of class action lawsuits in the near future.

    slugbop007

  11. Clicky says:

  12. Rose says:

    It was only a matter of time.

    Phoenix doctor using investigational nitric oxide COVID-19 treatment
    May 26, 2020

    PHOENIX — A Banner Health doctor in Phoenix is using an investigational treatment for coronavirus patients focused on inhaled nitric oxide.

    The treatment is called INOpulse and is said to be the only treatment designed to deliver a targeted dose of nitric oxide.
    “In previous clinical studies, nitric oxide was found to inhibit the replication of severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronaviruses (SARS-COV)—similar to the novel COVID-19—while increasing oxygen saturation and blood flow,” a press release says.

    The FDA approved the Bellerophon Therapeutics request to begin Phase 3 of the INOpulse study in up to 500 patients earlier in May.

    So far, doctors have already treated more than 50 COVID-19 patients with the INOpulse system, and the “therapy appeared to improve oxygenation.”

    The treatments are being led by Thomas Ardiles, M.D., Clinical Assistant Professor at University of Arizona College of Medicine Phoenix & Pulmonary and Critical Care Physician at Banner – University Medical Center Phoenix.”
    https://www.abc15.com/news/region-phoenix-metro/central-phoenix/phx-doctor-using-investigational-nitric-oxide-covid-19-treatment

  13. RdM says:

    “My own belief, after two years of building my own model of heat flows (I used to build such models 40 years ago) at the surface of the Earth, is that there’s another factor that determines the glacial cycle, which is the thermal resistance of large areas of snow and ice during ice ages, which results in the gradual warming of subglacial rock by geothermal heat from within the Earth, and the eventual melting of the overlying snow, in a repeat cycle of freezing and melting. This cycle seems to be unknown to climate scientists. As I see it, it’s the ice sheets that control the glacial cycle, not CO2. Small rises in CO2 can only delay the inevitable onset of the next ice age, and we may have already experienced the delay: a new ice age could start any day. But climate scientists discount geothermal heat as insignificant by comparison with solar heat and the effect of CO2.”

    Having recently noticed this woman Zoe getting some stick on WUWT in comments, relating to her views on geothermal energy relevance, even labelled a troll, I took a look at her fairly new blog (I think there’s usually something going on when a minority view is pilloried!) and I think you might be interested, first to read, mark, inwardly digest, and then maybe even to engage… ;+})

    Rather than me mention your blog there, but of course I think you should, could, might contribute.

    I see Willis Eschenbach has followed over from comments at WUWT to debate on her blog.

    https://phzoe.com/

    Perhaps start with the earliest at bottom, then all the obviously geothermal related, going up.

    Something to be interested in? I think she could use your input.
    Or you might add some new ideas for her to consider. And the rest.
    Go for it!

    Contribute there, your ideas might gain considerable weight and flow out, upwards ;-)

    Meanwhile, be cautious about what ‘medications’ they prescribed for, to, you.
    I hope not statins. Lots of bad press on those. Well, not in the press, but elsewhere.
    Best wishes! Summer must be coming there, as Winter is here!

    Yeah, thinking Vivaldi Four Seasons …

    ~ Ross

No need to log in

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.