Death of the Experts

Delingpole:

Britain’s drastic lockdown policy may be based on a flawed and unreliable model devised by a scientist with a track record of failure.

Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, London, is the scientist behind the doomsday report that terrified Prime Minister Boris Johnson into imposing sudden and radical lockdown measures across the United Kingdom.

The report apocalyptically predicted that coronavirus could kill as many as 500,000 people in Britain if nothing was done to stop the spread of the disease.

Ferguson has since substantially revised down his death toll, saying it could be “substantially less than 20,000”. Colleagues at Imperial, however, have at times predicted a death toll even smaller than that — as few as 5,700 fatalities if the lockdown continues.

Rival scientists are increasingly critical of Ferguson’s original doomsday predictions, noting that his previous modelled forecasts have been found severely wanting.

Among his critics is Professor Michael Thrusfield of Edinburgh University, co-author of two reports highly critical of Ferguson’s mathematical modelling during the 2001 Foot and Mouth crisis.

Ferguson’s predictive modelling — which helped persuade Tony Blair’s government to carry out a pre-emptive cull which led to the deaths of more than six million cattle, sheep and pigs and which cost the UK economy an estimated £10 billion — was subsequently described as “not fit for purpose.”

It’s not just Ferguson. It’s all of them. All their models are flawed and unreliable models. None of them know what they’re talking about.

Think about it. Nobody has any experience of what’s happening right now with coronavirus.. So there can be no ‘experts’. There are no experts who really know what they’re talking about. There are just a bunch of people who’ve been claiming to be experts in one thing or another, but one thing is becoming clear is that none of them really have a clue what they’re talking about.

It’s true about coronavirus. And it’s true about climate change. And it’s true about tobacco. And it’s true about the EU and politics and economics and everything else. None of them have a clue what they’re talking about. They’re all full  of hot air. And they’ve always just been full of hot air

I like James Delingpole, but he’s full of hot air too.  He talks about climate change like he understands the science, but I don’t think he understands the science at all. I’ve never seen him do any. Because there is no Climate Science. There are just lots of people who claim to know all about it, and they’re full of hot air as well.

The people to distrust are those who say; “Listen to me. I know all about it.” They’re the people who become “experts”, and who get funded – but only because they’re claiming to be experts. And now we’re finding out that none of them are experts about anything. They just made a good living pretending to be experts.

All the models are flawed, All the models are unreliable. And they’re always going to be flawed and unreliable. That’s the nature of a model: a model isn’t a perfect representation of reality. A model is always a simplified representation of something. There’ll be elements missing from it, which are thought to be unimportant.

I don’t believe anything that’s being said about coronavirus right now. I don’t believe any of the predictions that are being made. Why should I believe the predictions of people who have no previous experience of anything like this? They’re just guessing when they say that X number of people will die, or that the pandemic will last another Y months.

Ian Ferguson had a good run. He managed to fool a lot of people into thinking he was an expert. He wasn’t. But neither is anyone else. There are no experts out there that are expert about anything. And there never have been. And there never will be.

Sure, some people know more about some things than most other people. But they only know a little more. Not enough to call themselves experts.

If the coronavirus episode results in one thing, I hope it’s the mass extinction of self-styled experts.

About Frank Davis

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15 Responses to Death of the Experts

  1. wobbler2012 says:

    David Icke nails it when it comes to computer modeling: Shite in, shite out.

  2. Igrowmyown says:

    Amen to that Frank.

  3. sok says:

    huge wake up imminent. I will just continue with the beautiful spring in England, thank you Frank, peter Bournemouth )

  4. sok says:

    you will be shut down by the people if you say it for what it is;- worldwide eco/ interpersonal shutdown in order to cover the overleveraged banking system, blame it on a virus.) Fear, Fear. I would wise a crack here but you hopefully know what I mean, after all, today is April fools.

  5. Mark Jarratt says:

    The “experts” and decisions based on their advice, are causing untold damage across society, aggravating fear and panic based in worst case scenario speculation. The totalitarian “risk treatments” are illegal and ineffective, with no defined end or measure of success. Illness or the (apparently significantly overstated) risk of illness is never justification to suspend democracy.

  6. Nessimmersion says:

    No – as featured on Hector Drummonds excellent website it’s
    GIGO
    Garbage In
    Gospel Out

  7. Ryan S says:

    But muh PhD! Yes! You must never question the “experts”. The science is settled! Although science is never settled but this is somehow different! To think otherwise is to be a modern day blasphemer. I’m starting to smell more BS on a daily basis. Even the tests aren’t 100% reliable. They don’t even know what they’re looking at. The virus hasn’t been isolated, purified etc etc. it’s all speculation and based on speculation, the world is under house arrest. The only plus side has been the open lanes on the freeway. My work commute normally takes an hour in the morning. Due to very few cops ( NY state troopers) around and other drivers, I’ve cut it to 45 minutes!

  8. sok says:

    wonder if ferg god will take the wrap when all our world finally stops- like the wheel of fortune, I give him till Friday,who is with me?, I am sue Fank will allow me this. I will be back in twenty four hours here. think,.

  9. peter soakel says:

    sure….frank,, wtf are sue and fank)

  10. petesquiz says:

    I wish I could agree with you that this will be the death of experts, but I don’t see it. The main problem is that, in our technological society, hardly anyone in government or media are scientifically literate. So, when someone comes up to them and spouts what seems like science to them, they go, “Wow! That’s amazing – I didn’t understand a word of it, but it sounded so good you’ve got the job controlling our policy on…..(insert crisis name here)”.

    It is amazing in this era that virtually none of the most powerful people and influencers understand what science actually is. They don’t understand that the ‘First Rule of Science Club’ is to be skeptical.

    Our leaders don’t have the knowledge to ask their ‘experts’ penetrating questions like – “Just what assumptions have you made in this model and how close to reality are they?”

    Until we get more scientifically literate leaders, we will be in the hands of these charlatans that the media call experts.

    • Ryan S says:

      But being skeptical of science, especially with the left but anyone who takes it as gospel, is blasphemy. Unless you have a PhD (as if spending gobs if money in school is the be all end all of education) the your observations don’t count!

  11. peter soakel says:

    the resultant damage of shutting everything down is,- as every minute passes, horrific. Makes suicide notionally, an ever more viable option for many. Total idiocy – beyond sane. wrong.
    we need to rid ourselves of the clowns who are pushing this ASAP. We all will expire sooner or later. I would prefer to not grovel at the reaper, We have a death fetish that is being pumped by the fictional parents-‘gov’- be under no illusion, they do not give monkeys arse about you. all moneys been extended to the end, cant pay back, muppet show of deadly bug turns up and we all follow like sheep. if you think I got tin foil hat think two weeks ago, I suggest you are under house arrest. do not visit friends, do not travel, 2 legit journeys per day…1000years more or less in the uk blood sweat and tears rights- poof!, gone over fear…… WAKE UP, sorry about the type. just meher. peter soakell, bournemouth england

  12. Lepercolonist says:

    Prosecutors and defense attorneys pay ‘experts’ for their testimony that completely contradict each other. Which ‘expert’ do you believe ?

  13. smokingscot says:

    Loads of videos popping up showing hospitals to be deserted. And the video does show that, however all is not what it seems and this nurse writes why.

    https://m.imgur.com/a/YtNhXkQ

    Further down the thread is a long, personal account of what it’s like to be infected.

  14. Dodgy Geezer says:

    “I don’t believe anything that’s being said about coronavirus right now. I don’t believe any of the predictions that are being made. Why should I believe the predictions of people who have no previous experience of anything like this?”

    I also am suspicious of any predictions. But I tend tto believe data once it has been accurately measured and gathered. So the Weekly Total Mortality rates DO indicate that there is a mild epidemic on at the moment.

    It is instructive to note that no one has ever produced any reliable evidence of world-wide climate change…

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