My New Subglacial WordPress Blog

Interesting headline in the Independent:

Only 15% of people believe PM fully ‘got Brexit done’, poll finds as Trump ‘livid over Huawei decision’

Do I think Boris got Brexit done? I suppose I don’t really. And that’s because I don’t really believe that the British political class (of which Boris is a member) ever wanted Brexit. Boris made a great show of leaving, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up remaining

As for the Huawei business, I’m not sure what it’s about, I’ve read that Huawei puts ‘back doors’ in their mobile phones to read stuff in them. But doesn’t everybody put back doors in everything?

After cheering him on wildly during the General Election, James Delingpole seems to have fallen out of love with Boris:

Boris Johnson’s Brexit administration has got off to a terrible start.

To appreciate just how bad things are, here’s a thought experiment: imagine if you had been told that the price of Brexit was the wholesale reordering of the UK economy on eco-socialistic grounds,

It seems Boris is a true believer in Climate Change. Is anyone surprised? The political classes everywhere seem to be as completely sold on climate change as they are on smoking bans.

It’s a religion. And the true believers will believe whatever the experts – climatic or medical – tell them. None of them are capable of thinking for themselves, so they have to believe whatever the experts tell them.

But in respect of climate, I’m capable of thinking for myself. I once spent some 7 years building electronic heat flow simulation models as a postgraduate and research assistant. And over the past two years I’ve been slowly constructing a heat flow simulation model of geological columns, 90% of which entails conductive heat flow of a kind with which I’m very familiar. And I’ve now got a polyhedral Earth model, with 80 geological columns, 24 of them continental columns, 56 ocean columns. The model even includes a Keplerian orbital model with which I can model Milankovitch cycles, varying the Earth’s obliquity and orbital eccentricity and precession. I can also simulate global warming by changing the absorptivity of the air in the Earth’s atmosphere. And I’ve been dropping snow on the surface of my model Earth, and getting nice ice ages in the northern hemisphere:

I love building these sorts of models. I’ve built economic models and evolution models and orbital simulation models and even models of bouncing balls.

Last year I started a new WordPress blog – Subglacial – to which I’ve been intermittently adding pages. The idea was to simply write about what I was doing, mostly for my own benefit. I currently have the comments disabled (but I may change that soon). And last week I uploaded the model’s Java source code to it in the form of several pdf files (it was the only way I could find to do it: ordinary text files had their lines truncated). And that means that anyone who has got NetBeans installed on their computer should be able run my model, if they want to. It’s fairly slow: it can do about 100,000 years of heat flow in its geological columns in about 35 minutes on my £130 PC.

Will anyone be interested? Probably not. After all, I’m not An Expert and I’m not a Climate Scientist either. And hardly anyone seems to be interested in building models. Apart from a few giant Global Circulation Models running on supercomputers, there seem to be no simple little climate models that can run on PCs. But I like the idea of ordinary people having their own little climate models on their own computers, and taking on the experts on their own ground, questioning their assumptions. Like Richard Feynman, I believe that science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.

And, in fact, I think that climate experts actually are ignorant. I think they’ve been ignoring something that I take into account in my model. They seem to more or less completely ignore the small heat flow (only about 50 milliWatts/m²) coming from inside the Earth, on the grounds that it’s simply too small to have any effect on the Earth’s atmosphere. This tiny geothermal heat flow indeed has no direct effect on the atmosphere, but when it gradually melts snow sheets over tens of thousands of years, it drastically changes the Earth’s albedo (reflectibity), which has a dramatic effect on the Earth’s climate. So it has a profound indirect effect on climate. But it seems that the climate scientists can’t see this, and so they don’t understand how ice ages work, and seem to have convinced themselves that carbon dioxide is what controls the climate.

Anyway, I’ll keep intermittently adding to my Subglacial blog. If nothing else, it’s fun. And my model is working well enough to produce regular cycles of global glaciation and deglaciation, all driven by subglacial heat flow. The cycles stop happening if the subglacial geothermal heat flow stops.

And in the process, I’ve become a fan of global warming. I think it’s a Good Thing. Yesterday I cam across a NZ climate scientist who thinks that the Earth would be ripe for a new ice age, but for global warming. And that’s pretty much my view as well (albeit for different reasons than his). If the Borises and Greta Thunbergs get their way, and successfully decarbonise the global economy, it’ll trigger the start to a new ice age, with ice sheets spreading across Europe and Russia and North America. If a bit of global warming can prevent that happening, it’ll be a damn good thing. The Industrial Revolution maybe happened just in time to stop it.

About Frank Davis

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11 Responses to My New Subglacial WordPress Blog

  1. petesquiz says:

    “If the Borises and Greta Thunbergs get their way, and successfully decarbonise the global economy, it’ll trigger the start to a new ice age, with ice sheets spreading across Europe and Russia and North America.”

    If they get their way it will have zero effect on the climate because Carbon Dioxide is not responsible for the warming! It will have a disastrous effect on the lives of ordinary people, though. No-one will be able to afford to own or run a car, no-one will be able to fly overseas and no-one will be able to eat meat…well, no-one apart from the well-off and the privileged, that is. And that sounds, to me, very similar to what the Soviet Union was like!

    Your model is interesting and I’m sure that you’re onto something. The IPCC, however, are only interested in man-made causes for climate change…that is all their remit allows them to look into. So they will never factor anything else in like water vapour, which is the most abundant greenhouse gas in our atmosphere!

    Click to access ipcc-principles.pdf

    • Frank Davis says:

      Well, as you know, I assume that there is a small amount of warming due to CO2 (in the region of 1 degree C per doubling). Most climate sceptics make the same assumption. The alarmists assume much larger warming.

      If you’re right, and CO2 has no warming effect, then in my view there’ll soon be a new ice age. Or is there something else that you think is causing warming?

      • petesquiz says:

        I don’t know what is causing the current warming, but two of the pieces of evidence that I think exonerate CO2 are: –
        The current warming started around 1750 – 1800 as the Little Ice Age came to an end and this warming has continued (with occasional pauses) ever since. CO2 levels have also been rising over that period, but the rate started to increase significantly around 1960. This has been attributed to human influence, but what seems to be ignored by the ‘alarmists’ is that sea water is less able to hold CO2 as temperatures rise. Basically, as the oceans warm they release CO2 back into the atmosphere. In general, the rise in CO2 level comes after the rise in temperature.
        Seccond; I have a degree in Chemistry (not that I use it much these days) and as I understand it CO2 absorbs infra-red radiation in three narrow bands – 2.7μm, 4.3μm and 15μm. Apparently the 15μm is the important one.
        This is how it works – one molecule of CO2 absorbs one photon at 15μm infra-red causing the molecule to start vibrating differently, also meaning that it cannot absorb any more IR radiation. There are two things that can now happen; either the CO2 molecule goes back to its previous state and releases one photon at 15μm, or it hits another molecule in the atmosphere and transfers the extra energy to that molecule (Nitrogen or Oxygen). Only the second scenario results in warming, but for every one molcule of CO2 there are 2500 molecules of Nitrogen and Oxygen (400ppm). So for CO2 to be causing the warming, it must be the ‘hardest working’ molecule in the atmosphere!
        This article – https://nov79.com/gbwm/ntyg.html – explains it all in great detail (it is long and very detailed, but well worth persevering with!

  2. Joe L. says:

    And last week I uploaded the model’s Java source code to it in the form of several pdf files (it was the only way I could find to do it: ordinary text files had their lines truncated).

    The only way you could find? Did you give up on GitHub, Frank? We got your account set up a couple years ago and a repo for your orbital simulation model, but you haven’t updated it since. Once you get the hang of using Git, it’s a much more efficient way of sharing source code (and keeping it up-to-date) than uploading text files to WordPress, let alone having to convert text files to PDF (and vice-versa for the recipient) every time you want to share an updated version. If you’d like to create a repo for your climate model just let me know and we can set some more time aside.

    • Frank Davis says:

      No, I didn’t give up on GitHub. I think that if anyone wants to run or develop the code, GitHub is very definitely the way to go.

      But right at the moment I don’t know anyone who’s interested in either running the code or developing it further. I seem to be very much on my own in constructing models of this sort.

      If somebody turns up who says, “Great. I love your model, and I’d like to use it,” at present they at least have the option to download the files, convert them to text files, and run them on NetBeans. I’ve given them access. It’s not the greatest form of access, but it’s access all the same.

      So my current view is that I’ll leave it this way until somebody shows interest in the code. And at the moment I don’t expect anyone will.

      Putting it another way, what’s the point of sharing code in an efficient way if there’s nobody to share it with?

      • Joe L. says:

        Valid point, Frank. However, there are many other benefits to using version control systems like Git besides sharing code, the one I find most useful is having a commit history. All of your commits are saved and you can quickly revert back to a known working revision in case you wind up breaking something and not discovering it for a while. It eliminates the need to periodically archive your source code. And even if you are regularly making manual archives, what happens if your hard drive goes kaput? At first, using version control can seem like a chore, but once you get in the rhythm and habit of using it, you will never want to work on a project without it.

        • Frank Davis says:

          what happens if your hard drive goes kaput?

          I back up files on memory sticks. When my computer actually went kaput, I lost no code.

          I’d happily use GitHub in a co-operative venture. But on my own, I prefer my old ways of doing things.

  3. Sackerson says:

    I shall follow your new blog, for one.

  4. RdM says:

    Having recently noticed this woman Zoe getting some stick on WUWT in comments, relating to her views on geothermal energy relevance, even labelled a troll, I took a look at her fairly new blog (I think there’s usually something going on when a minority view is pilloried) and I think you might be interested, first to read and maybe even to engage…

    Rather than me mention your blog there, but of course I think you should, could, might contribute.

    I see Willis Eschenbach has followed over from comments at WUWT to debate on her blog.

    https://phzoe.com/

    Perhaps start with the earliest at bottom, then all the obviously geothermal related, and to latest.

    (I thought I’d posted this days ago, but the PC froze, and so did this. Well, enjoy reading it!)

    Best wishes, cheers, &etc.

    ~ Ross

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