Mickey Mouse Models

Via Climate Depot:

Climate Scientist Dr. Mototaka Nakamura: ‘Our models are Mickey-Mouse Mockeries of the Real World’

….Today’s ‘global warming science’ is akin to an upside down pyramid which is built on the work of a few climate modelers. These AGW pioneers claim to have demonstrated human-derived CO2 emissions as the cause of recently rising temperatures and have then simply projected that warming forward. Every climate researcher thereafter has taken the results of these original models as a given, and we’re even at the stage now where merely testing their validity is regarded as heresy.

Here in Nakamura, we have a highly qualified and experienced climate modeler with impeccable credentials rejecting the unscientific bases of the climate crisis claims. But he’s up against it — activists are winning at the moment, and they’re fronted by scared, crying children…

Here’s a guy who was actually working on climate models for 25 years. He’s not just another retired physics professor. Although it does appear that he no longer works in the field (which is maybe why he feels free to speak out).

I have an interest, because for the past 18+ months I’ve been working on my own ice age ‘climate’ model – actually a model of conductive heat flow through rock and ice. If Nakamura thinks that the climate scientists’ supercomputer simulation models are “Mickey-Mouse Mockeries”, I wonder what he’d think of my little model, running on a PC? A “Much-worse-than-Mickey-Mouse Mockery”?

Not that I care. I just like to think for myself, and not leave my thinking to self-styled ‘experts’. And I can’t see how anyone can think about something like the Earth’s climate or the Earth’s orbit or anything else in the absence of a model of those things. As soon as I try and think about something. I want to build a working model of it.

For example, I’ve always been grimly fascinated by the JFK assassination ever since it happened, and so when I wrote about the Storm Drain a few years back I was seriously considering building a 3D computer simulation model of the motion of JFK’s motorcade moving through Dealey Plaza. Because I know how to construct a simple model along these lines. And I could have used it to check out the ‘Magic Bullet’ theory. And I could even have used it to create another cartoon Zapruder film to compare with the original. There’s a great deal that can be learned from these sort of models. And there’s even more to be learned when you build the model yourself.

And I’ve learned a lot from my ice age ‘climate’ model. It’s given me an idea of how slowly or quickly things warm up or cool down. And the model does surprising things that force me to think, and wonder “Why the hell is that happening?” And I’ve gotten Milankovitch cycles working on my little model – something I didn’t think I’d ever manage. I can even very crudely simulate ‘greenhouse’ gas warming of the atmosphere. It’s never going to be an accurate predictive model. It’s always going to be a toy. But before I learned to drive real cars I’d spent many years playing with toy cars, and I think that gave me a good idea how to drive them.

Anyway, when Nakamura says that the climate scientists’ simulation models don’t model ocean currents, and don’t model water vapour in the atmosphere at all well, and don’t model clouds well either, I can well believe him. Because in my little model I don’t model oceans or water vapour at all, and clouds hardly at all either. I don’t model oceans because, while I know how to model conduction, I don’t know how to model convection or advection. There are all sorts of things I don’t know how to model, like forests or grasslands.

So if the climate scientists’ models really are Mickey-Mouse mockeries of the real world, why do so many people place their trust in them? The answer, I suspect, is because they’re the only models around, and they all produce similar wrong results because the climate scientists all think the same way, and if they don’t they’re fired (which is what would have happened to Nakamura if he was still working at MIT on climate models). It’s exactly the same with how the Ptolemaic geocentric model of the solar system was the only model around until Copernicus proposed a heliocentric model of it. The Ptolemaic climate scientists’ model is going to hold sway until somebody comes up with a better one.

Meanwhile, the climate scientists have started a panic, just like the doctors started a panic about firstly smoking and then secondhand smoke. Who’s going to start the next panic? And what will it be about?

About Frank Davis

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3 Responses to Mickey Mouse Models

  1. Rhys says:

    The Russians had a pretty good (not perfect) climate model, which I think is why they only got interested in climate change last week (it’s political). Meanwhile, here in Canada, the government destroyed 100 years’ worth of climate data, because people didn’t know how to measure it in the past, and the current models do. Kinda speechless there, since we haven’t even got a model yet that can successfully predict weather from the past, things we know that happened. Also political. And very scary. https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/goldstein-feds-scrapped-100-years-of-data-on-climate-change

  2. garyk30 says:

    Glad you are not a ‘REAL’ expert, they have a very bad record.

  3. jaxthefirst says:

    “ … why do so many people place their trust in them?”

    Perhaps more pertinently, who do so many people in positions of power place their trust in them? When those in positions of influence are so easily taken in, it’s a real problem. They are, after all, the ones who make the laws which we are all obliged, without being consulted (or even considered), to adhere to, and the ones who can decide, seemingly on a whim, to slap taxes, duties and charges on anything they like with impunity. Ah – think I’ve answered my own question there…..

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