Brexit: Whatever Next?

I have no idea what’s going on, but it’s all very exciting:

MPs will try to block a no-deal Brexit today as Mr Johnson vows to seek a snap general election following last night’s crushing Commons defeat.

The PM faces a new crisis as Tory rebels and opposition parties seize control of Parliament in a bid to stop the UK crashing out of the EU on October 31.

Mr Johnson has vowed to table a motion for an election and it could be put to a vote today – but he faces defeat after Labour confirmed that its members will vote it down.

The Tories have been torn apart as 21 rebels lost the whip for voting against the Government, including Rory Stewart, who was dumped from the party by text as he accepted the GQ politician of the year award.

As far as I can see, the situation is that we have a Remainer-dominated Parliament doing its level best to stop Britain leaving the EU, and what they’re going to vote against today is a No Deal Brexit. But since they’ve already voted three times against Therasa May’s Bad Deal Brexit (the only deal on offer), that will mean that there can be no Brexit. Which is exactly what the Remainers want.

If this happens, Boris Johnson wants a General Election in order to give himself the mandate to deliver Brexit. But the Labour Party of Jeremy Corbyn don’t want an election, because they think they’ll lose. As does former PM Tony Blair:

Former Prime Minister Tony Blair has said Labour should reject a potential snap election, in case voters rally behind Boris Johnson and the Tories over fear of a Corbyn-led Labour government.

Under a Jeremy Corbyn leadership, Mr Blair said that Labour would “struggle” in a General Election, adding: “The opposition vote is going to split and under our system, that delivers a comfortable Tory majority.”

So, if I read the tea leaves right, the Remainer-dominated House of Commons will vote today to prevent a No Deal Brexit (and any Brexit at all), and will very likely also vote against a snap General Election whenever that’s put before them.

And then next week Parliament is prorogued or suspended for 5 weeks, coming back in mid-October.

In addition, since it appears that the 21 Conservative MPs who voted against the Government yesterday – a number of whom are illustrious figures in the Conservative party – have had the whip removed, and will be de-selected as Conservative candidates in any future election, the Conservative party is now deeply split.

Nigel Farage:

“We may find ourselves in a few weeks, with no Brexit and with no chance in a general election to do anything about it, I fear that we are rapidly headed towards a very, very dark place.

“It’s been going on, gradually since 2016.”

He explained: “You see democracy works only if you have the principle of losers consent.”

It’s really just the same as in the USA, when the Democrats and Hillary Clinton didn’t consent that they’d lost the presidential election to Donald Trump in 2016, and have regarded him as illegitimate ever since: the Remainers in the UK have never accepted that they lost the EU referendum vote in 2016.

So what happens next? I have no idea.

But one possibility, that I’ve not seen discussed, is that if Boris Johnson is still Prime Minister on 31 October, he will simply declare that Britain has left the EU on that date, because that’s the date that had been agreed with the EU several months ago.

Of course, the EU could grant an extension beyond 31 October. But the British government is not looking for an extension. Boris Johnson has being consistently saying the Britain will leave on 31 October, deal or no deal.

Whatever happens, I think that the next General Election, whenever it comes, will see a Brexit party landslide, and a Conservative party landslide as well (if Boris Johnson is still the leader of the Conservative party). Because I suspect that the British people have been getting angrier and angrier at being told by the Remainers in Parliament that their vote doesn’t count, and they can’t have the Brexit they voted for. It’s become the People versus the Remainer Parliament, or perhaps more accurately the anti-EU people versus the pro-EU British political class.

But that’s just my guess. And I continue to believe that Britain won’t be leaving the EU on 31 October.

About Frank Davis

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17 Responses to Brexit: Whatever Next?

  1. It could be that Tories will table a no confidence vote. Would be fun to watch his opponents vote their confidence in him to avoid a general election…and further reduce time to talk more gibberish about deals..

  2. DP says:

    Dear Mr Davis

    There was no mention of a deal on the ballot paper in the referendum.

    Article 50 states that if no agreement is reached within two years of invoking Article 50, the withdrawing country simply leaves without agreement.

    As far as I am concerned, we left the eu at 11pm on 29 March 2019.

    The ‘crashing out with no deal’ hysteria is just the remaindeers’ Project Fear 5.0 or whatever they are up to now.

    If the United Kingdom has not left the eu on 31 October, I will deem our beloved government™ to have declared war on the majority of the British people, and act accordingly.

    DP

  3. waltc says:

    A Brit ex pat on tv last night said that the original vote explicitly stated to the voters that the choice was theirs, NOT parliament’s and that paliament would be bound to implement the voters’ choice. Can someone sue on those grounds?

  4. Frank Davis says:

    https://order-order.com/2019/09/04/anti-no-deal-legislation-passes/

    Following remain MPs’ 29-vote victory at the 2nd reading this afternoon, MPs have now passed anti-No Deal legislation; forcing the PM not only to ask for an extension but accept any terms the EU proposed. Now only the Lords can save democracy…

    • ianl says:

      > ” … forcing the PM not only to ask for an extension but accept any terms the EU proposed”

      So what happens if Johnson just sits on his hands and *refuses* by default to ask Brussels for an extension ? Serious question …

      The situation is black comedy writ large, worthy of John Cleese at his peak – British satire at its’ rapier best. The PM has to convince his own party to vote no confidence in him to try for an election but the Opposition, who loathe him, vote confidence in him to avoid an election.

      As Angela quietly says: WUNDERBAR !!

      • Frank Davis says:

        I had a similar question, which is: Assuming the Lords can’t stop today’s legislation, and it is to be passed to the Queen for her assent in order to make it into law, what if Boris Johnson’s government sits on its hands and doesn’t ask for her assent?

        • ianl says:

          From the little I’ve read of UK websites and especially the MSM, it seems that either refusing to go back to Brussels or refusing to pass the bill to the Queen for assent (same result, either way) is what the Remainers now most fear. No election, no new deal tabled, Parliament prorogued, October 31 in 7 weeks.

          Hmmm … it is rather interesting.

  5. Rose says:

    Now Labour and the Lib Dems have done to the Leavers what they did to the smokers.

    “Tories voting to ban smoking in all pubs and clubs in England were:
    David Amess (Southend West) James Arbuthnot (Hampshire North East) Tony Baldry (Banbury)
    John Bercow (Buckingham) etc”.
    http://www.mullingscot.com/who-voted-for-the-smoking-ban-in-england.html

    Awful feeling that it’s not your country any more.

  6. Frank Davis says:

    According to the Guardian:

    Are we having a general election or not?
    Johnson reacted to Tuesday night’s defeat by promising to call a vote on having an election on 15 October via the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, allowing governments to break the standard five-year period between polls. But under the act, this requires two-thirds or more of MPs to support the measure. Labour and opposition parties mainly abstained. The motion won by 298 votes to 44, nowhere near the 430-plus threshold.

    So I suppose the answer is that no, we’re not going to have a General Election

  7. James says:

    I hope that if there is a general election that Boris runs an absolutely ruthless campaign of parliament vs the people.

  8. waltc says:

    I see where the Remainers have taken to the streets much like the Resisters here. What happens when the people’s vote is stymied? Do Brexiters take to the streets? Or are they too busy working, or just too defeated? How, if at all, will they express their rage? Or do they just throw up their hands?

    • Frank Davis says:

      How, if at all, will they express their rage?

      We’ll do it at the next General Election. That’s what they’re for.

    • Rose says:

      Walt,
      Remain Facebook pages ‘professionalised’ by £100,000 campaign

      3 September 2019

      “Protests against Boris Johnson’s prorogation of parliament are being boosted by a national network of pro-EU Facebook pages, Sky News can reveal.

      The pages have a combined total of 400,000 followers and are local and community “for Europe” Facebook pages.

      These include Norfolk for Europe or Swansea for Europe, which have between 4,000 and 6,000 followers, or Cornwall for Europe, which has more than 15,000.

      Originally run by local activists, these pages – which number 116 in total – are now being coordinated by a well-resourced group which provides the network with funding, training and advanced technical support.

      Until now, the only visible sign of this operation has been Facebook ads run with the disclaimers such as “paid for by #ProjectHope”,”

      On 29 August, the day after Mr Johnson announced his request to prorogue Parliament, a large crowd gathered outside the local office of Conservative MP Alex Chalk.

      This apparently spontaneous demonstration was organised by Cheltenham for Europe.

      “What it’s meant crucially is that over the last week or so we’ve been able to get 300 people at our MPs door within 24 hours,” said Ms Robson.

      “That’s real world impact, which is really important at the moment.”

      In addition to supplying funding for advertising, Scientists for EU also provides the network with technical support.”
      https://news.sky.com/story/secret-facebook-network-helps-boost-anti-brexit-protests-11800848

      How Labour used its election troops to fake popular support
      2005

      “Model letters were drafted for them to ‘write’ to local papers, as if they had been spontaneously roused to complain about Michael Howard’s tactics – while party staff were drafted in to represent ‘local people’ whom Tony Blair could meet on campaign visits. ‘Spontaneous’ demonstrations against rival politicians were also organised, with activists instructed to use handwritten homemade-looking placards”

      “In the programme, she complains that the war room was ‘one of the most macho places that I’ve ever worked’, describing how Blair’s former press chief Alastair Campbell strode across the room to give Cabinet minister Alan Milburn a high five while he was on the phone.

      She was dispatched to a press conference addressed by Milburn to help ‘fill out’ the audience after embarrassingly few journalists turned up – and was filmed shaking hands with Tony Blair as an ‘ordinary’ person at a photocall. She also helped compile model letters for supporters to send to local papers, complaining that ‘as someone who has worked for a number of years in the NHS’, they found that Michael Howard’s use of the case of pensioner Margaret Dixon – who had her shoulder operation repeatedly cancelled – had not ‘accurately represented’ the state of the health service. The letters later appeared virtually word for word in local newspapers, under the names of local party activists who did not declare their allegiances.”

      “Among the American strategists drafted into the Labour campaign was Zach Exley, a Democrat and expert in internet campaigning who pioneered the use of emails to supporters appealing for money – copied by Labour, who persuaded the author John O’Farrell to put his name to them – and is closely associated with astroturfing.

      The technique, which began with Bush’s Republican party encouraging pro-war letters to local newspapers, and then by Democrats to push Kerry, is said to have originated with pharmaceutical firms encouraging patients to write letters praising the effects of certain drugs.”
      https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2005/may/22/uk.election2005

      Real people have to wait their chance, I waited 40 years to vote us out.

      • waltc says:

        How long will The People wait? And do elections even count anymore? You voted for Brexit. That, for example. America voted for Trump and from literally day one, the well-organized “spontaneous” crowds were on the streets, and their compadres in congress are still trying to impeach him if only on the theory that his breathing is a high crime and misdemeanor. Sounds like Johnson is being treated to the same crap except he doesn’t have the constitutional luxury of waiting it out for four years.

  9. Pingback: More Chaos | Frank Davis

  10. RdM says:

    New to me this blog
    https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/
    most recently
    https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/another-weird-brexit-turn-tories-vote-to-support-no-deal-bill-in-house-of-lords-mUB9gkhpJEWtrA9sXGNoOw/
    and older re Brexit.
    Notably, (comments) on
    “Queen’s Consent which – if you can believe it – is different from Royal Assent”.
    There’s more there.
    Interesting in part ;=})

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