I have no idea what’s going on, but it’s all very exciting:
MPs will try to block a no-deal Brexit today as Mr Johnson vows to seek a snap general election following last night’s crushing Commons defeat.
The PM faces a new crisis as Tory rebels and opposition parties seize control of Parliament in a bid to stop the UK crashing out of the EU on October 31.
Mr Johnson has vowed to table a motion for an election and it could be put to a vote today – but he faces defeat after Labour confirmed that its members will vote it down.
The Tories have been torn apart as 21 rebels lost the whip for voting against the Government, including Rory Stewart, who was dumped from the party by text as he accepted the GQ politician of the year award.
As far as I can see, the situation is that we have a Remainer-dominated Parliament doing its level best to stop Britain leaving the EU, and what they’re going to vote against today is a No Deal Brexit. But since they’ve already voted three times against Therasa May’s Bad Deal Brexit (the only deal on offer), that will mean that there can be no Brexit. Which is exactly what the Remainers want.
If this happens, Boris Johnson wants a General Election in order to give himself the mandate to deliver Brexit. But the Labour Party of Jeremy Corbyn don’t want an election, because they think they’ll lose. As does former PM Tony Blair:
Former Prime Minister Tony Blair has said Labour should reject a potential snap election, in case voters rally behind Boris Johnson and the Tories over fear of a Corbyn-led Labour government.
Under a Jeremy Corbyn leadership, Mr Blair said that Labour would “struggle” in a General Election, adding: “The opposition vote is going to split and under our system, that delivers a comfortable Tory majority.”
So, if I read the tea leaves right, the Remainer-dominated House of Commons will vote today to prevent a No Deal Brexit (and any Brexit at all), and will very likely also vote against a snap General Election whenever that’s put before them.
And then next week Parliament is prorogued or suspended for 5 weeks, coming back in mid-October.
In addition, since it appears that the 21 Conservative MPs who voted against the Government yesterday – a number of whom are illustrious figures in the Conservative party – have had the whip removed, and will be de-selected as Conservative candidates in any future election, the Conservative party is now deeply split.
“We may find ourselves in a few weeks, with no Brexit and with no chance in a general election to do anything about it, I fear that we are rapidly headed towards a very, very dark place.
“It’s been going on, gradually since 2016.”
He explained: “You see democracy works only if you have the principle of losers consent.”
It’s really just the same as in the USA, when the Democrats and Hillary Clinton didn’t consent that they’d lost the presidential election to Donald Trump in 2016, and have regarded him as illegitimate ever since: the Remainers in the UK have never accepted that they lost the EU referendum vote in 2016.
So what happens next? I have no idea.
But one possibility, that I’ve not seen discussed, is that if Boris Johnson is still Prime Minister on 31 October, he will simply declare that Britain has left the EU on that date, because that’s the date that had been agreed with the EU several months ago.
Of course, the EU could grant an extension beyond 31 October. But the British government is not looking for an extension. Boris Johnson has being consistently saying the Britain will leave on 31 October, deal or no deal.
Whatever happens, I think that the next General Election, whenever it comes, will see a Brexit party landslide, and a Conservative party landslide as well (if Boris Johnson is still the leader of the Conservative party). Because I suspect that the British people have been getting angrier and angrier at being told by the Remainers in Parliament that their vote doesn’t count, and they can’t have the Brexit they voted for. It’s become the People versus the Remainer Parliament, or perhaps more accurately the anti-EU people versus the pro-EU British political class.
But that’s just my guess. And I continue to believe that Britain won’t be leaving the EU on 31 October.