What Happens Next?

What happens next?

As far as I can make out, we’re now in a two-week limbo period of delay until 12 April. Both the government and Parliament are in deepening disarray.

As far as I can see, the state of affairs is that the British people voted to leave the EU, but government and parliament don’t want to. The political class is fully wedded to the EU, and has been for decades. But the British people have become increasingly disenchanted with it. In fact, people everywhere in Europe have been becoming  disenchanted with it.

So the dilemma facing our politicians is: do they do what they want to do, and stay in the EU? Or do they do what the people want, and leave as requested?

If they do the former, they’re liable to find themselves voted out of their parliamentary seats by an angry electorate at the next election (which could be just round the corner).

If they do the latter, they may not want to carry on being MPs anyway, in a changed political environment.

Either way, the political careers of many of them will be over.

I continue to believe that most of them think they know better than the British people what’s good for them, and so will make sure that Brexit doesn’t happen on 12 April.

And then it’ll be People versus Parliament. And I think that the People will be angry that the Parliament has not done what the People wanted.

James Delingpole, reporting from a pro-Brexit rally:

What I can tell you is this: the people who voted for Brexit aren’t going to go away and they haven’t changed their mind. On the contrary, I believe people’s appetite for Brexit is stronger than it has ever been.

One of the things that pleasantly surprised me at today’s Brexit rally outside the Houses of Parliament in London was the number of people I’d met who had originally voted Remain but were now ardent Brexiteers.

Some had originally bought into the Project Fear myths of the Establishment-driven Remain campaign; others had simply gone along with Remain thinking that a rift with the EU would be too disruptive. Now they’d just had enough of the European Union and wanted out.

It’s not too surprising that he should come across such voices at a pro-Brexit rally. But how are most Britons going to react to to the government failing to do what Britons asked it to do? I think that, regardless of whether they’re Remainers of Leavers, all Britons should be disturbed when their vote is ignored. And they will probably not be inclined, if a second referendum is called, to reverse the vote to Leave. They’re much more likely to double down and vote even more strongly to Leave. Because it will have become not so much a matter of whether Britain leaves or remains in the EU, but instead the far more serious matter of whether Parliament does the will of the People or not.

Of course, it could well be that once we get to April 12, a further delay will be announced, and another one after that, and so on indefinitely. After all, that seems to have been Theresa May’s plan all along: Do it all as slowly as possible. Deliver Brexit, but deliver it so slowly that it never actually happens.

But in that event the British people will start to get angrier and angrier and angrier.

So that’s what I expect will happen. Nothing will happen, because the government never planned to do anything about Brexit. And the British people will start slowly getting angry that nothing is being done. And they’re already quite angry after nearly 3 years of nothing being done.

About Frank Davis

smoker
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

19 Responses to What Happens Next?

  1. Rose says:

    And they will probably not be inclined, if a second referendum is called, to reverse the vote to Leave

    That’s if Leave is even on the ballot paper, I have watched a great many MPs asking for a second referendum but they insist the question should be a choice between May’s deal and Remain, both of which lock us in the EU, in the case of May’s deal, forever with no chance of escape unless the EU allows it.

  2. Timothy Goodacre says:

    Need to do an Oliver Cromwell Frank. Turn the whole rotten lot out !

  3. Fredrik Eich says:

    What I find interesting about Brexit is that it is class war and no one seems to mention it.

    When remainers say we “the people” demand a “peoples vote” what they are really saying is
    “we the middle class” want a second referendum.

    When tony blair’s new labour government decided to flood the UK labour market with cheap labour
    it was the disenfranchised working classes that saw their incomes fall and not the disenfranchised
    middle class. Those people who were affected by this flood of cheap labour knew that their votes had no power to change the situation because their westminster vote had no power because of the EU and their EU vote has no power because that vote can not form a government and propose legislation. The only way people could re-enfranchise themselves was to vote leave because this give them back a vote that has real power.

    New labour gave the working classes a further kicking with the smoking ban because over night it turned almost every working class boozer into a restaurant for middle class people to eat food in (if they did not simply close). It also closed working mens clubs.

    I think the remain march was predominantly middle class metropolitans and the leave march was predominantly working class.

    Brexit is , ergo , Class war .

  4. smokingscot says:

    The MSM made a big issue that there were far fewer people at the Brexit gathering than the hundreds of thousands at the pro EU one the week before.

    My take is exactly the same as I said about people who vote UKIP. We do not make an issue of it, we don’t stick pins in our lapels, we just go into the voting booth and place our cross.

    Those of us who were suckered into the Clegg thing about laws we wanted changed – and said the smoking ban, well we know from bitter experience that politicians, by and large, simply do not want to know what we really want.

    People who want a second referendum do so on the basis the questions will be:

    Do you want to remain a part of the EU?

    Do you accept the deal offered by the Prime Minister to leave the EU?

    To most leaver’s neither is acceptable, which is the prime reason so many leaver politicians are dead set against it.

    The EU meeting on 10th April could well settle things if enough countries say enough is enough and force us out without a deal.

    That is unless May quits as PM and calls a GE before then.

  5. Ripper says:

    To avoid leaving without a deal the law had to be changed, which didn’t happen as far as I am aware. Therefore, in the legal sense we left on WTO terms on Friday and those in Westminster are now acting unlawfully. I’m going to start a business, making lamp posts and piano wire.

    • Rose says:

      The 412 MPs Who Voted to Delay Brexit

      “412 MPs voted in favour of Theresa May’s motion calling for an extension of Article 50 at least until 30 June, in direct defiance of hundreds of explicit on-the-record promises from the Prime Minister herself. A shameful day for politics.

      There were still 202 MPs who voted against an extension, including well over half of Tory MPs.

      All 10 DUP MPs also voted against it, as well as Frank Field. Only three Labour MPs voted against the delay: Stephen Hepburn, Kate Hoey and Graham Stringer.”

      The 412 MPs who voted to delay Brexit were:
      https://order-order.com/2019/03/14/412-mps-voted-delay-brexit/

      But the EU wouldn’t let her have the 30th of June, but told her if she could get Parliament to pass the deal by the 12 of April, she could have an extension to the 22nd of May.

      To change the date of Brexit so British Law would match the new date of Brexit in EU law the House had to pass a statutory instrument which they duly did. It has now passed the Lords as well apparently.

      • Frank Davis says:

        Good. My Conservative Brexiteer MP isn’t on that list.

        • Rose says:

          I’ve checked my MP’s latest voting record on Brexit today on They Work For You and I am really quite pleased, despite his views on tobacco.

        • Rose says:

          Now here is an MP I would be glad to hear a lot less from, he seems to be permanently on TV.

          Grieve Loses People’s Vote 182/131
          30 March 2019

          “Grieve’s arrogance was that he thought he could shift from promising his members – in writing – that he would respect the outcome of the referendum, to leading the efforts to thwart Brexit, without cost. Breaking your word to voters, particularly the ones who get out the vote for you, is risky”
          https://order-order.com/2019/03/30/grieve-loses-local-support-breaking-word/

          But don’t expect too much, CCHQ needs all the MPs it can get whether they vote with the Government or not.

          Soubry Defeats Deselection Plot As Association Chairman Resigns
          30 July 2018

          “Anna Soubry has defeated an attempt to deselect her – as the association chairman behind the plot resigned his post. Guido has previously reported how John Doddy, chairman of Broxtowe Conservatives, was on manoeuvres to remove Soubry as the Tory candidate for the next election. Soubry hit back by reporting Doddy to CCHQ and accusing him of plotting to take her job.”
          https://order-order.com/2018/07/30/soubry-defeats-deselection-plot-as-association-chairman-resigns/

        • Frank Davis says:

          CCHQ

          Is that related to GCHQ?

          Perhaps they’re the same thing.

        • Rose says:

          Not quite

          Conservative Campaign Headquarters

          “The Conservative Campaign Headquarters, formerly known as Conservative Central Office is the headquarters of the British Conservative Party, housing its central staff and committee members, including campaign coordinators and managers”

  6. Andi says:

    UK fashion brands battle for China’s growing market –
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47689385
    Remainer: Gasp!…but how is this possible, we don’t have a trade deal with China!!???
    Leaver: That would be the W.T.O. you know….doing its thing.

  7. pete says:

    Do you remember the much loved programmes of Jack Hargreaves on the television in the 60’s and through to the 80’s ? – At the end of Jack’s book: ‘The Old Country’ – he was asking the question of just what the optimum population of Britain should be in the days of our grandchildren – and he eventually got his answer from a University Vice-Chancellor who’d served on a committee that had been asked by some organ of government to find the answer to that same question… with all being happy, healthy, well educated, with purposeful things to do and leisure in proper amount, etc… all known factors considered… and they’d come up with an answer – but it was never published :- 36 million

  8. waltc says:

    US newscasts have it that if there is a second vote it would indeed be the “heads, they win; tails, you lose” that smoking scot and others have postulated. Facebook –at least my newsline–seems to be populated by Remainers/ progressives (the two go together) crowing about the numbers who signed the petition the way their American counterparts can,t let go of Hillary’s popular vote margin.

    And speaking of “can’t let go,” the liberals here can’t let go of “Trump is a Russian spy” and have descended into bizarre contortions of logic and sentence-parsing and ever-wilder conspiracy theories to make their case. And meanwhile, terrified, arrogant sixth graders stage hectoring marches proclaiming the “climate change” end of the world . I begin to believe the west is having a nervous breakdown.

  9. Joe L. says:

    OT: The mainstream media has drawn a lot of attention lately for peddling “fake news.” We’re long overdue for a similar exposure of “fake science.” This is a good start, but it’s just the tip of the iceberg:

    Duke University to pay $112.5 million for faking scientific research data

    Duke University has agreed to pay $112.5 million to the US government for scientific research misconduct, the Department of Justice announced in a press release on Monday. The fine comes as a result of the university falsifying research on federal grants.

    The Department of Justice lays out the background and extent of the fraud. Duke received millions of dollars from the National Institutes of Health and the Environmental Protection Agency every year, but it turns out that the university engaged in over two dozen acts of fraud against the government.

    “The settlement resolves allegations that between 2006 and 2018, Duke knowingly submitted and caused to be submitted claims to the NIH and to the EPA that contained falsified or fabricated data or statements in thirty (30) grants, causing the NIH and EPA to pay out grants funds they otherwise would not have,” the release states.

    The release also points to “certain research related to mice conducted by a Duke research technician in its Airway Physiology Laboratory” as falsified or fabricated.

  10. RdM says:

    Couldn’t resist this, shouldn’t upset traffic too much I hope, not even sure if it will work…

    There are larger versions with a Google image search.

    And other variants, sadly a DT version

    And in comments apparently a Boris J version, I haven’t looked.

    Well, people will be people … I’ll get me hat.

  11. RdM says:

    OT:

    “Nature related words should be reinstated in the Junior Oxford English Dictionary.”

    https://www.change.org/p/oxford-university-press-nature-related-words-should-be-reinstated-in-the-junior-oxford-english-dictionary

    I think most NZ children might still know some or most, a few obscure English plants not maybe.
    Would depend urban or rural, age, education …

    What say you?

    • Rose says:

      I’m horrified, if children come across such words online or in a book and don’t understand them, where else would they look them up but in a dictionary?

      ash, beech, bluebell, buttercup, catkin, cowslip, dandelion, fern, hazel, heather, ivy and nectar are in my garden right now and will be in town gardens too because you can buy most of them at the local garden centre and you can find catkins, cowslips, ferns, hazels, heather, mistletoe and ivy in our local supermarket during the relevant season, conkers in the local park, lots and lots of them, the local kids were trying to knock them off the trees with sticks last autumn.

      Talk about dumbing down.

No need to log in

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.