Brexit, EU, and a Sunny February

I’ve been doing my level best to ignore Brexit, but it’s probably going to become impossible to ignore once we get to March. I’m still inclined to think it won’t happen, because the British political class remains wedded to the EU, and so they won’t let it happen.

But I noticed this yesterday:

British Prime Minister Theresa May on Sunday delayed a vote on her Brexit deal in the Parliament, saying it should take place by March 12, a little more than two weeks before the UK is due to leave the European Union.

Since she hasn’t managed to get any deal out of the EU over the past 2½ years, what likelihood is there of her getting one now? Next to none, as far as I can see. So as far as I can see, either Britain crashes out of the EU with no deal on 29 March or Brexit will be delayed. So I expect there’ll be a last minute delay, followed by another last minute delay, and then another. Britain will keep on delaying leaving the EU.

After all, that seems to have been Theresa May’s plan all along: delay Brexit as long as possible. She was, after all, a Remainer. And she probably still is. And that’s why she has delayed it as long as possible. And will keep on delaying it.

Brexit will be a catastrophe for the EU project. The UK will be the first to leave the European Union. Once the UK manages to escape, others will be sure to follow.

And Brexit isn’t the only crisis the EU is facing. In France the presidency of Emmanuel Macron is in deep trouble with the continuing Gilets Jaunes revolt, which is now promising to take “decisive action” on 9 March.

And then there’s a tidal wave of nationalist populism that looks set to engulf the EU parliament in the elections at the end of May.

And then there’s Donald Trump at odds with the EU as well about NATO and Iran and much else, and promising a big boost in trade with the UK:

Trump welcomes new UK-US deal, promising to ‘very, very substantially’ increase trade after Brexit

More and more voices are predicting the disintegration of the EU. Yanis Varoufakis:

‘Brexit is a SYMPTOM!’ Yanis Varoufakis warns European Union ‘DISINTEGRATION’ is coming

George Soros:

GEORGE Soros predicted that Brexit could “unleash a general exodus and the disintegration of the European Union” in a chilling warning to Brussels, despite revealing he was betting against Britain voting to leave.

Nigel Farage has been predicting it for a long time:

The European Union will start disintegrating after Italians pick the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement candidate as mayor of Rome on June 19 and Britons vote to leave the EU four days later, the leader of the UK Independence Party was quoted as saying.

But there’s also signs of disintegration within UK politics as well, as splits have appeared in the Labour party. and in the Conservative party as well.

…

But it’s a very nice sunny day here in Herefordshire. So I think I’ll head off to one of my local pubs, to sit in the garden with a beer and a cigarette, and forget about the EU and Brexit. I was there a few days ago, and I was a bit surprised to see that there were ashtrays on nearly every table. They’re clearly making a big effort to attract smokers.