The Looming European Civil War

I have no idea what’s happening with Brexit. I read yesterday that Parliament had voted a) against a No Deal ‘hard’ Brexit, and b) against any delayed Brexit. But I also read that neither vote tied the hands of the British government. I continue to think that we’re not going to get any Brexit: the political class don’t want one.

Following on from yesterday’s post:

Our faith is in the great idea that we inherited, which we believe to have been the one force powerful enough to lift Europe’s peoples above themselves and their warring past.

I have the opposite view. I think that this mysterious ‘idea’ of Europe is going to plunge Europe into war.

It’ll probably be called the European Civil War (which I’ve written about before), because it will have more or less the exact same causes as the American Civil War of 1861 – 65.

For in that war, the newly-formed  (less than 100 years old) United States of America saw a number of its southern states attempting to secede from the Union. In the civil war that followed, the union was forcibly re-imposed on the secessionist states. But for that war, north America would probably now be a collection of different states, with maybe a French-speaking state in the Mid-west, and a Spanish-speaking state in the West.

The European Union is, like the USA back then, a newly-formed Union of states. It’s less than 100 years old. It’s also a union which, like the early USA, was created by agreement rather than by conquest. It was a club which member states were invited to join. But now, just like in America circa 1850, some of the members have become uncomfortable in the union, and wish to leave. And Britain, which was a latecomer to this newly-formed club, has become the first to try to leave. In this respect it’s about as likely to be successful as Texas or Florida were in attempting to secede from the United States of America.

There is only one purpose behind all these unions, and that is that acquisition of political power in the world. The bigger a union can become – and this applies to mineworkers’ and truckers’ unions -, the greater its influence will be. And this is why the EU has been expanding over the past 70 years, and drawing in as many member states as it possibly can. The EU political caste want as much power as they can possibly get hold of. And they will do anything necessary to hang on to that power. Which means that they can no more allow any member state to leave the union than President Abraham Lincoln could tolerate the secession of the southern US states.

And if necessary, they’ll raise an EU army to march into any European state that has the temerity to try to leave the Union, just like Abraham Lincoln did. And building such an army is exactly what the EU is now doing.

French President Emmanuel Macron has warned that Europeans cannot be protected without a “true, European army”, as he marks the centenary of the World War One Armistice.

What is the purpose of this army? What new threat has suddenly emerged that calls for an army to be formed? Are they worried about the Russians? Perhaps it’s true that the old Soviet  Union was at one time an ideological threat, but that was 30 or more years ago. Or are they worried about the Americans, now under the command of a loose cannon like Donald Trump?

I suggest that Brussels is not in the least bit worried about either Russia or America. The purpose of the EU army is not to protect the EU from external enemies, but to protect it from internal enemies – in the form of secessionist movements and secessionist states. And what we will see in coming years, as the tide of nationalist populism mounts throughout Europe, and states on its periphery attempt to secede, is the EU army marching in to prevent any secession – just like the Soviet Union marched into Czechoslovakia during the Prague Spring of 1968.

The European Union is no more likely to disintegrate without a fight than the United States of America was likely to disintegrate without a fight in 1861. If it needs an army, it will create one. And that is what it is now doing.

And perhaps Emmanuel Macron will one day prove to be Europe’s Abraham Lincoln.

But there are some differences between Europe and America which would seem to militate against the successful maintenance of the European Union. The fledgling USA had the advantage that all its member states  were new – almost teenage = states, and English-speaking states, far distant from the rest of the world. The fledgling EU is made up of a number of very old – almost geriatric – states, all speaking different languages, in a corner of a supercontinent on which most of the peoples of the world live. The American people shared a continent and a language and a culture that helped bind them together once their civil war ended. The peoples of Europe share none of these attributes, and their differing languages and cultures must always act to divide them. Furthermore, any European Civil War will almost certainly draw in neighbouring states outside the EU which have a deep interest in European affairs. All of which will make a European Civil War a very nasty war indeed, and one which the EU is unlikely to survive.

The ‘idea’ of Europe is not one that is “powerful enough to lift Europe’s peoples above themselves and their warring past”: it is instead only powerful enough to ensure that millions of Europeans will be slaughtered in its name. For the ‘idea’ of Europe is nothing but the ancient dream of imperial power. And the imperialists in Brussels will never let go of that dream until it is forcibly snatched from their hands.

About Frank Davis

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5 Responses to The Looming European Civil War

  1. smokingscot says:


    Frank you certainly have a sense of humour!

    Macron will be remembered as a political cypher.

    Lincoln had integrity and was a true statesman of his time. This political pipsqueak does not and is an embarrassment to the French people.

    He is on the other hand the main protagonist in insisting on an indefinite backstop.

    No border with Ireland and we’re tied to the EU. Hard border and the Irish political establishment will go ballistic. His convoluted reasoning being we will be obliged to continue to pay to fund the bloated, predatory monolith that’s mutated into a force that’s very dangerous.

    Something Trump, Xi Jinping and Putin are aware of, though only Trump has spoken openly about. Putin now has the hardware to obliterate any penny annie EU army, while China is using their surplus capital to gain influence, notably by extending loans they know cannot be paid back primarily through their belt and road initiative.

    Anyone who can hang around for another 20 years is likely to see the geopolitical centre shift – and the protectionist, navel gazing EU ain’t gonna be at the top table.

  2. AndyDan says:

    Good post. An additional point is that currently, there’s an alliance between the EU establishment and Islam. That won’t last forever, and, when it’s over, the EU army will move in and impose European “values” on the newcomers.

  3. waltc says:

    Good analysis and an aptly parsed analogy (similarities and differences) with the American Civil War–except for Macron/ Lincoln. Not only is he weak, he’ll be gone in an eye-blink. I’ll repeat, though, for maybe the seventh time here what I originally said about 20-whatever years ago when the EU was formed: that it would either end in Oceania or WW3. Or a one-two punch of both –that its approach to becoming a stifling Total State would lead to violent rebellion. I didn’t foresee a European Army (nor, do I gather, has one yet been formed) but still don’t believe that’s the way it would go which would be the way it’s going: people in the streets fighting their own governments. Next step, if needed, , storming Brussels. Finally, fighting the governments that are trying to keep them “enslaved”–in this case Germany is first on the list. Unless, of course, the Germans themselves become rebels. Meanwhile, I still hope Brexit comes true.

    • Frank Davis says:

      My point about Macron (who I find loathsome) is that he is very strongly in favour of the European Union in the same way that Lincoln was very strongly in favour of the American Union. And in that sense they are kindred spirits. So why is Lincoln revered? In fact at the time a lot of people hated Lincoln, much like they now hate Macron. Lincoln was only deified after one of them had shot him dead.

  4. smokingscot says:

    Now they’re becoming very frightening indeed. Macron’s advisors have let it be known that they’d like his wife to die so that Macron can do the grieving widower impression!!

    That is so horrible.

    The guy’s so loathed and his critics do take the piss about his being a granny snatcher that I doubt anything bad that happens to him will ever result in sympathy or forgiveness.

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