Is Brussels Getting Desperate?

I watched Theresa May speaking in Parliament yesterday on one of the many online video feeds available, and somehow gained the impression (perhaps false) that she knew what she was doing. She just didn’t look to me like someone who was taking an awful beating.

What is she trying to do? I think her plan might well be to lead the UK towards a chaotic no-deal departure from the EU at the end of March in order to extract last-minute concessions from a Brussels that is more worried about this happening than London.

STRASBOURG, France (AP) — European Union Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier says the bloc is stepping up preparations for a chaotic no-deal departure of Britain from the bloc after the rejection of the draft withdrawal deal in London left the EU “fearing more than ever that there is a risk” of a cliff-edge departure.

And I think Brussels is worried because the EU exports more goods to Britain than Britain exports to the EU, and so a no-deal departure would hit the EU harder than it would hit Britain.

But whatever happens with Brexit, events within the EU are happening almost as fast. For it seems that, after a lull over Christmas, the Gilets Jaunes protests in France are gathering new momentum:

Support for the Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests) waned somewhat over the Christmas period but has found newfound momentum as a poll shows nearly 70 percent of French people now back it.

The results, released by polling firm Elabe, show a rebound in support for the movement, from 60 percent to 67 percent, following another nation-wide protest over the weekend, compared to 13 percent moderately opposed to the movement and 12 percent overtly hostile to it.

If it’s really true that 70% of the French back the Gilets Jaunes, then it seems perfectly possible that they may well succeed in toppling Macron’s pro-EU government. And that would be yet another catastrophe for Brussels.

The EU is beginning to show strong signs of disintegration, with the rise of nationalist populism nearly everywhere in Europe. And maybe Theresa May knows this.

The biggest joke of all is that Theresa May is negotiating the terms of “Brexit” from the EU with a political corpse and not a viable polity.

She may well end up being able to dictate whatever terms she likes to an increasingly desperate Brussels.

But that’s just my guess.

About Frank Davis

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10 Responses to Is Brussels Getting Desperate?

  1. Mark says:

    That must be the mother of all combative dissonances: desperate and delusional at the same time!

  2. Fredrik Eich says:

    I don’t see the advantage of Mays deal. Why pay billions to buy into a market that you run a net trading loss with? The only reason I can see is that UK financial services are a big money spinner for a tiny minority of people (and the country as a whole) with a vested interest in this slice of exports and it is these people that benefit from a trading poor deal. There is no need to put customs posts on a border, so the hard border in N Ireland scenario is just never going to happen, therefore I believe the backstop is just a political instrument to keep the UK signed up to a trading deal that is not good for the UK as a whole but does benefit people who are in a position to influence the exit arrangements. Mays deal is good for pan EU business but not so much the UK IMO.

  3. Elizabeth says:

    I would normally “like” this post for I rather agree. I think the whole thing is a setup somehow. Very peculiar indeed.

    But I have no “like” button anymore!

    This is off topic, but does anyone know why I have no “like” buttons on the WordPress blogs I read nowadays? This has been going on for several months with no solution that I can find…

  4. Frank Davis says:

    Steve Turley on Brexit

    • AndyDan says:

      This man has a very good grasp of our current situation. I wish I was as confident as he is that we are actually going to leave the EU on March 29th.

  5. Michael says:

    here here….. at last someone has seen the reverse psychology. If she is indeed thinking like this, it looks like her bluff may pay off. There is of course the situation arising as we near the big day that others in Europe are waiting to see what type of deal Britain gets before they follow suit.

  6. Doonhamer says:

    May be she is a female Chauncey Gardiner.
    In a world where Juncker is a President of a continent anything is believable.

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