There’s some sort of Brexit debate going on in Parliament. I don’t know what the outcome of it will be, but I’m convinced that it won’t result in Brexit. And it won’t result in Brexit because the British political class wants to remain in the EU. They just need to find a way of remaining in the EU in a manner that looks like Brexit.
But I don’t really think that, in the longer term, it really matters what British MPs do or do not vote for, because the entire EU “project” is on the rocks. The EU grew too big, too fast. And it became too centralised, and too remote from ordinary people. And the European political class has developed a set of values and beliefs and aspirations which are very different from those of the people they govern.
This mismatch has been most glaringly apparent in France over the past few days. Emmanuel Macron is a climate alarmist who wishes to reduce France’s dependence on oil and nuclear power, but the French people share neither his alarm nor his wish. He’s now cancelled the fuel price hikes, but the mismatch between president and people remains. He doesn’t think the same way that they do.
And much the same is true all over Europe, including the UK. An arrogant, detached, conceited political class is filled with contempt for the people they govern. They think they know better than they do what’s good for them.
And that’s why there are growing populist movements and parties springing up all over Europe. And I expect that, over the next few years, these populist parties are going to sweep away the old European political order of the past 50 years. And they’ll most likely disband the EU, and return sovereignty to European states, along with their own currencies and laws and assemblies. If the EU remains at all, it will be one which has reversed back to being something like the EEC: a collection of sovereign states. It’ll maybe be called the EA: The European Association.
And so, even if MPs vote this week to remain in the EU (while calling it Brexit), they’ll soon find that the EU has ceased to exist, and they’ll have a self-governing Britain whether they like it or not.
And sometime during this process of reversal, the smoking bans that have been enacted all over Europe will also be reversed. Because smoking bans have never been popular measures: they’ve been the work of arrogant, detached, conceited bureaucrats and zealots, who think they know what’s good for everyone else.
Smoking bans are, in many ways, the hallmark of globalism. They have been enacted globally, by a global elite political class. And the defeat of globalism must therefore also bring with it the demise of globalist smoking bans, and globalist institutions like the UN and the WHO and the like. We don’t need all these arrogant busybodies. We don’t need any of them at all.
What’s interesting about the current situation is that we currently have a populist US president. He’s regarded as an aberration, but I think that he is simply the first of many, who will appear all over the world.
I’m no great fan of Bruce Springsteen (or of any other musician’s political beliefs), but recent remarks by him seemed sober and realistic:
Bruce Springsteen believes that President Donald Trump will win a second term in the White House.
‘I don’t see anyone out there at the moment… the man who can beat Trump, or the woman who can beat Trump,’ the rocker told The Sunday Times Magazine.
Springsteen, who is a long-standing Democrat himself, said the political party doesn’t ‘have an obvious, effective presidential candidate’ who can ‘speak the same language’ as Trump.
I think Springsteen is right. There’s nobody out there who can match Trump. The only real question is: who will replace Trump once he’s gone? Who is the next populist politician who will speak up for the American people?
In the meantime, over the next few years, Trump will probably be supporting and promoting populists all over Europe. And he will be a very powerful ally of theirs.
It could be an interesting few years.