Ignorance

As I’ve frequently remarked, the smoking debate has many parallels with the climate debate – if nothing else because in both cases “the debate is over.”

Over the past couple of years I’ve slightly lost interest in the climate debate, because I’ve thought that the climate alarmists started losing the debate with the Climategate furore, and their attempt at “hiding the decline.” But this year, when (to my astonishment) I came up with my own idea about climate change, I’ve been taking a bit more interest in it.

And so yesterday I was watching Roger Pielke Jr giving a talk about how the debate had become so conflicted, and so polarised. And very early in the talk he showed a list of some of the things that characterised the debate. I reproduce it below:

And well, of course, it’s just the same with smoking. The antismokers see smoking as a tremendous evil, and the tobacco companies as “merchants of death”, and smokers as addicts and poisoners.

And they also believe that the end – ridding the world of tobacco – justifies the means. And the means is incessant propaganda, smoking bans, and the exclusion from every arena of society of smokers of any sort of tobacco, using any method of consumption, even if it just looks like smoking.

And they never debate with smokers. They employ megaphone diplomacy to shout at them. Smokers have to get the message. And if they don’t get the message, it’ll just have to be shouted even louder.

And they employ millenarian rhetoric, as they increasingly speak of the “endgame” in which tobacco will have been banished from the world, and the last tobacco plant dug up and burned.

And it’s just like that with climate science too. Anyone who can’t see the dangers of CO2-generated global warming is beneath contempt. They need to be re-educated. The dangers of global warming are so great that any means is justified to achieve the end of preventing global warming from happening. And so if the element Carbon has to be banished from the face of the Earth, that’s just what will have to be done.

“The other side is not worth engaging with.” (11:45)

So in this very interesting talk, Roger Pielke Jr is really just talking about the climate debate, and how people talk past each other, or over each other’s heads, and send messages they don’t really mean to send – e.g. The routine assertion by climate alarmists that “97% of climate scientists are agreed about climate change” gets interpreted  by climate sceptics as “Fuck you.”

So I thought he had something interesting to say, even though, as far as I could see, he’s actually something of a climate alarmist rather than sceptic, and doesn’t have a high opinion of Donald Trump (he was pointing out that Democrats are twice as likely to be worried about climate change as Republicans).

He was also saying that the two sides tend to ignore each other, and talk only to their own side.

And this prompted the thought in me that the CO2 alarmists have been been promoting the influence of CO2 in the atmosphere precisely because it was being ignored. They think it matters, and the sceptics think it doesn’t matter much, and can be ignored. The alarmists play up CO2, and the sceptics play it down.

And it prompted the further thought that in my contribution to the debate (which is bound to be completely ignored) I was also drawing attention to something that was being ignored: the influence of the Earth itself on the climate on the surface of the Earth.

For we have all seen the sorts of diagrams of radiative heat exchanges in the atmosphere shown below:

There are lots of these complicated flow charts (quite often disagreeing with each other), but one thing none of them ever include is the contribution of heat from the Earth itself. It’s completely ignored. And the reason it’s ignored is because the contribution of the Earth is tiny. Because if there are, in the flow chart above, 350 Watts/m² of surface radiation upwards from the surface of the Earth, there are only 67 milliWatts/m² of heat being contributed to the surface by the Earth.

It’s peanuts. You can ignore it. And so they do ignore it.

But I don’t think it can be ignored. If the heat flow is so low, it’s because the Earth’s surface rocks are at pretty much the same temperature as the atmosphere. But the centre of the Earth is believed to be at a temperature of about 6000K. It’s very, very hot. And in my model of the Earth, the surface rocks can become very hot too (up to 600K), and the heat flow from the Earth can rise dramatically. So my model looks like this, with the blue sine wave as the conductive heat flow from within the Earth to its surface:

And when this is added in, a completely new picture emerges.

But the climate scientists who ignore each other will of course ignore me. And they’ll have no trouble ignoring me, because they’re very, very good at ignoring each other. I’m a spokesman for the Ignored Earth, and they’re going to carry on ignoring it.

I tend to think of ignorance of something as being not knowing anything about it. But ignorance isn’t quite exactly that. Ignorance means ignoring something, something you know about, but dismiss as unimportant.

Anyway, here’s Pielke’s talk:

P.S. Walt draws attention to the FDA’s cockamamie scheme of reducing nicotine in tobacco, on which comments can be made here.

P.P.S. BuckotheMoose will be joining me and Peter when we visit Nisakiman next week. And there’s a chance that Brigitte might come too.

About Frank Davis

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17 Responses to Ignorance

  1. Rose says:

    Anyone who can’t see the dangers of CO2-generated global warming is beneath contempt. They need to be re-educated. The dangers of global warming are so great that any means is justified to achieve the end of preventing global warming from happening

    Sacrifices to rain god discovered at Maya water temple
    Jan. 29, 2015

    “In the jungles of Belize, archaeologists have discovered the ruins of a Maya water temple. National Geographic reports that the derelict compound contains a 60-meter-deep pool where the ancient people appear to have offered sacrifices to Chaak, the rain god, in an effort to end a massive drought and save their civilization. Apparently Chaak didn’t listen; perhaps he was incensed that the gifts only really began coming in after the drought had taken hold. In any event, the rains never arrived, and the Maya civilization began to collapse in 800 C.E. The sacrificed artifacts remain, though, and researchers are now using diving gear to extract and study them.”
    http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/01/sacrifices-rain-god-discovered-maya-water-temple

    Ancient Maya sacrificed boys not virgin girls: study
    2008

    “Archeologist Guillermo de Anda from the University of Yucatan pieced together the bones of 127 bodies discovered at the bottom of one of Chichen Itza’s sacred caves and found over 80 percent were likely boys between the ages of 3 and 11.”

    He said children were often thrown alive to their watery graves to please the Mayan rain god Chaac.“It was thought that the gods preferred small things and especially the rain god had four helpers that were represented as tiny people,” said de Anda.

    “So the children were offered as a way to directly communicate with Chaac,” he said.”
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-sacrifice/ancient-maya-sacrificed-boys-not-virgin-girls-study-idUSWRI32680820080123

    I wonder what they’ll find left behind from our current episode in history.

  2. garyk30 says:

    The chart , as shown, makes little sense.
    No wonder their claims are faith based.

  3. Rose says:

    Art

    There’s Now An Art Exhibit Devoted To Celebrities Smoking In the Met Gala Bathroom
    Apr 21, 2018

    “At last year’s Met Gala, the real party was in the bathroom. After walking the red carpet, the stars let loose in the restroom, lighting up cigarettes and posting slightly-risqué mirror selfies in their black-tie attire.

    Though Met donors and esteemed guests were insulted by the social-media-publicized bathroom bash, Brooklyn’s THNK1994 museum was artistically inspired by the mini soirée in the stalls. The institution just launched a new gallery exhibit titled: “Celebrities Smoking in the Bathroom at the Met Gala.”

    “An important note: drinks and candy cigarettes will be included in the ticket price. See you in the bathroom.”
    https://www.harpersbazaar.com/culture/art-books-music/a19875218/celebrities-smoking-met-gala-bathroom-art-exhibit-thnk1994/

    It might be worth the 10 dollars entry price just to see a candy cigarette.

  4. Frank Davis says:

    At 21 minutes and 27 seconds, Alex Jones has a great idea.

    Alex Jones: “I’m telling you I want to go into art here on the air. I’m telling you the whole next level of us financing…
    Steve Pieczenik: “I would go with you, Alex. I think it’s a great idea. Why not?”
    Alex Jones: “You gotta wear a little black beret though, and smoke a cigarette, heh heh heh heh heh!”

  5. beobrigitte says:

    As I’ve frequently remarked, the smoking debate has many parallels with the climate debate – if nothing else because in both cases “the debate is over.”
    When “science is settled” and “the debate is over” we have a problem: LIES.

    And they employ millenarian rhetoric, as they increasingly speak of the “endgame” in which tobacco will have been banished from the world, and the last tobacco plant dug up and burned.
    Following which the population will start a hunt for anti-smokers as a valuable plant for rapid vaccine production no longer officially is available and black market prices will rocket.
    I have always maintained that all we need to do is comfortably settle into a seat in the first row to watch closely the spectacle unfolding. I simply love the anti-smoker shortsightedness!

    And they also believe that the end – ridding the world of tobacco – justifies the means. And the means is incessant propaganda, smoking bans, and the exclusion from every arena of society of smokers of any sort of tobacco, using any method of consumption, even if it just looks like smoking.
    And they believe they can fly….

    And they never debate with smokers. They employ megaphone diplomacy to shout at them. Smokers have to get the message. And if they don’t get the message, it’ll just have to be shouted even louder.
    And people will firstly resort to blanking out excessive noise. Then they will go for silencing it.

    P.P.S. BuckotheMoose will be joining me and Peter when we visit Nisakiman next week. And there’s a chance that Brigitte might come too.
    It’s not looking good… I have to squeeze in another Scotland trip and I am lagging behind with my preparations for my long haul trip. I’ll keep you posted in the SD bar.

    • all we need to do is comfortably settle into a seat in the first row to watch closely the spectacle unfolding.

      I have to agree that the “greatest show on earth” (aka Tobacco Control’s downfall) is yet to come, but balk at the implication that all we’ve got to do is to sit idly by, awaiting it to just happen.

  6. Smoking Lamp says:

    The relentless drum beating for smoking bans in Japan (especially Tokyo) is a clear example of the deliberate ignorance employed by antismokers to impose smoking bans. Despite several rejections of the antismoking initiatives the antismoker keep coming back and demanding bans. Of course the rely upon the second hand smoke ruse as their rational. Check out the latest at Japan Times and comment if you see fit: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/04/20/national/tokyo-gov-koike-push-smoking-ban-stricter-governments-watered-proposal/#.WtvOeq2ZNcB

  7. Another suggestion with reference to last month’s posts about finding a name for an association of smokers fighting for their rights (and for every man jack / woman jill’s right to be told at least the exact truth, representing the exact level of approximate knowledge attained by science on any given subject, at any given time): how about “the incensed burners”?

    https://cfrankdavis.wordpress.com/2018/03/05/control-g/
    https://cfrankdavis.wordpress.com/2018/03/06/armies-and-companies-and-unions/

  8. DP says:

    Dear Mr Davis

    Please give my best wishes to Nisakiman when you see him next week.

    Some time ago I read a reference to a ‘battery Earth’ theory of ice ages which sounded remarkably like your theory. Essentially the inner heat of the Earth builds up over a long and then is released during a shorter period of high volcanic activity which drains the battery. Repeat. The ice ages happen because the surface conditions happen to be just right.

    I’ve tried ducking for the theory, but without success, unsurprisingly: ‘battery’ and ‘earth’ have much more common connections, a lot of them involving cars …

    Hope you have a jolly time with Nisakiman.

    DP

    • Frank Davis says:

      This one? But it doesn’t seem to be about ice ages.

      https://futurism.com/earth-like-battery-studies-show-losing-charge-2/

      “You can think of the Earth like a battery that has been charged very slowly over billions of years,” reported John Schramski, an associate professor in UGA’s College of Engineering and the study’s lead author. “The sun’s energy is stored in plants and fossil fuels, but humans are draining energy much faster than it can be replenished.”

      Or this one?

      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1335962/Life-began-when-Earth-acted-as-a-giant-battery.html

      THE Earth formed a giant battery that may have created the spark of life four billion years ago, according to a new theory.

      Life on Earth may have begun 4.4 billion years ago when the planet formed a giant photo-electro-chemical cell, a light-powered battery, producing enough energy – in the form of a voltage – for living things to develop.

      Prof Michael Russell, of the Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre, Glasgow, will outline his theory tomorrow to the Royal Society of Chemistry’s conference in Birmingham.

      Humans rely on 500 millivolts to drive living processes in cells. Prof Russell has investigated how, on the primeval Earth, such voltages could emerge to drive processes in the first primitive living things.

      He suggests that life emerged as a response to the chemical imbalance around underwater hot springs, called hydrothermal vents.

      Related Articles
      The vents form one electrode of the Earth’s battery, where hydrogen is liberated from water in alkaline conditions. The other electrode is the ocean’s surface, where sunlight helps to oxidise materials, such as iron.

      When the liberated hydrogen and oxidised materials meet, as a result of ocean currents and circulation, a current of about 700 millivolts is generated, enough to allow organic molecules to emerge and drive living processes, he said.

      He and his colleagues predicted that alkaline springs would be found on old regions of the Earth’s crust. Two weeks ago, the first such hydrothermal vent system was found in the Atlantic: in it carbonate spires, pinnacles and 18-storey chimneys teem with life.

      Or this one?

      https://perspicacity.xyz/2016/09/20/i-learned-the-earth-is-a-giant-battery-and-it-powers-life/

      Twenty meters beneath the frosty surface of Antarctica lies Lake Vida, a thin pool of salty slush that, against all expectations, teems with life.

      The presence of life under such extreme conditions is an assemblage of amazings. The temperature of the pool is -13°C. The water is 19% salt, over five times the concentration of the ocean.

      And most incredibly, an ice cap has sealed off the lake from the rest of the earth’s ecosystem for almost 3000 years. All light is blocked by 20 meters of dirty snow. Organic matter – otherwise known as “food” – can neither enter nor leave.

      Without food or energy, how do its resident microbes survive?

      • DP says:

        Dear Mr Davis

        None of the above.

        My ducking expeditions didn’t turn up any of these sites.

        I read a summary of the theory some time – months rather than years – before you started developing your model.

        DP

  9. RdM says:

    Your diagram also reminds me of
    https://malagabay.wordpress.com/2015/09/30/eradicating-termites-with-the-stoke-of-a-pen/
    (also see the first link therein -Will There be a War on Ants?)

    And so toward the end, the wikipedia carbon cycle image.

    Anyway, to help you forget all about the termite problem you can refer to the wonderful Wikipedia illustration of the “Carbon Cycle” which references plants, microbes and phytoplankton but no other forms of life i.e. specifically no termites are illustrated.

    https://malagabay.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/carbon_cycle.jpg?w=640&h=539

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