There seem to be, very broadly, three accounts of the Las Vegas shooting emerging. In the first one, favoured by the mainstream media, it was all the work of a lone gunman, Stephen Paddock. In the second one, favoured by Alex Jones and a number of other people, it was carried out by several gunmen. And in a third one, favoured by Steve Pieczenik, the entire event was a spectacular piece of theatre, in which no shots were fired, and nobody was killed, and was an elaborate production with a cast of hundreds, and perhaps even thousands of ‘crisis actors’.
It might be said of these three accounts, in the order given, that each one is more improbable than the preceding ones. For the improbability increases with the number of people required. The lone gunman hypothesis requires just one individual. The multiple gunman hypothesis requires several individuals. And the elaborate hoax hypothesis requires hundreds and perhaps even thousands of people acting in concert.
One reason why Lone Gunmen theories tend to prevail on these occasions is that they are the simplest explanations, and so the most probable. Conspiracy theories of any kind are inherently improbable, and they become more improbable the more players they require.
In addition, a lone gunman story can be very quickly put together. It takes longer to put together a story with multiple gunmen. And it takes longer still to put together an account requiring hundreds or thousands of actors. So lone gunmen stories will always appear first, with multiple conspirator accounts coming later.
This was the case with the JFK assassination. In this case, the lone gunman, who was apprehended within hours, was Lee Harvey Oswald. His photo even appeared in Britain’s Daily Telegraph the very next morning. It took some 10 years or more for multiple gunmen to make their appearance, shooting from behind the picket fence on the grassy knoll. And it took much longer still for the most elaborate conspiracy theories – which included the Mafia, the CIA, and Lyndon Johnson – to emerge.
But in the case of Las Vegas, all three variants have appeared more or less simultaneously, within days of each other. An increasingly cynical public is now less and less inclined to believe the official, MSM-dispensed account of current events. And with vastly increased speeds of communication, alternative accounts can gain traction much more rapidly than ever before.
Oddly enough, the lone gunman → multiple conspirator → elaborate hoax triad of explanations can also be found elsewhere – for example, with asteroids.
The “lone gunman” explanation of the Chelyabinsk fireball of 15 February 2013 is that it was a lone, wandering rock, that just accidentally happened to arrive on the same day as asteroid 2012 DA14 also passed very close to the Earth.
The “multiple conspirator” account of the same events is that the Chelyabinsk bolide was a companion body of DA14, and the two bodies were in “conspiracy” with each other. I am myself an advocate of this view, and have spent years piecing together a computer simulation model in which the Chelyabinsk bolide was a rock lying 25 million km behind DA14, in the same orbit, and passed very close to the Earth on 15 Feb 2009, before arriving at the Earth on the very same day as DA14.
But there is also an “elaborate hoax” account of the Chelyabinsk rock, largely confined to Russia, which is that the Chelybinsk rock was actually a new American weapon being tested. And since, according to my calculations, it passed very close to the Earth in 2009, it’s not entirely impossible that it could have been launched from the Earth on that date. But it is of course highly improbable that any such a thing happened.
The “lone gunman” account of the Chelybinask fireball was already being advanced by NASA within hours of it exploding over Chelyabinsk. It was said to be “coming from the opposite direction”, before it was even known what direction it came from. And all subsequent constructions of its orbit show it coming from the asteroid belt, where all the asteroids live.
Lone gunman accounts of more or less any event are always the simplest, and the most plausible, and the first to appear. And they are also the accounts that usually get lodged in public consciousness, as recorded history.
And in the case of the JFK assassination, I personally regarded the lone gunman account of it as entirely plausible. And when I first heard of other supposed gunmen seen behind the picket fence on the grassy knoll next to Dealey Plaza, I dismissed it as improbable, not so much because it was a conspiracy theory, but because I thought that a shooter in that position would have had to be swinging his rifle rightwards as he took aim – he would have had to be a bit of a trick shot artist. It was only when I heard of the storm drain, which lay a few yards in front of the motorcade, rather than 100 yards behind it, that I thought that this was a position from which a shooter was much more likely to hit the target, and so it was it was most probably from this position that JFK was fatally shot. So, on the balance of probabilities, I’m
not inclined to think that JFK was shot from the storm drain. It’s the simplest explanation.
What’s the simplest explanation for Las Vegas? Currently it’s another lone gunman, of course. What else is to be expected? How long the lone gunman account can stand up to what looks like mounting witness and acoustic evidence of multiple conspirators remains to be seen. And already some people believe that it was all an elaborate hoax.
Tomorrow, at about 5:40 GMT, asteroid 2012 TC4 will make its closest approach to the Earth. It will be watched using telescopes just like DA14 four years ago. If some fireball explodes somewhere on the surface of the Earth within a few hours of that time, it will be dismissed as another lone wanderer – another lone gunman – that just happened to arrive at the same time.
Using a small rock cloud offset from 2012 TC4, and going in the same direction, I managed to get lots of impacts over the Pacific ocean. The rock cloud in the video below would come out of the eastern sky in Auckland, New Zealand at about 07:00 GMT, 7 pm NZT.
There probably won’t be any companions at all.