Fooled Again

Fooled again.

Last night I turned off all my computers, and physically disconnected them from both the electricity main and the telephone line. I pulled the plugs out of the wall. I didn’t want to pull dead microprocessor chips out of them, their legs bent and twisted and fried.

Why? Because there were thunderstorms coming up from the south. We were going to get two inches of rain in an hour. There was going to be wall-to-wall thunder and lightning, and torrential rain.

The local forecast was for it all to kick off at 7 p.m. So I was ready by then. I’d even closed all the windows.

I should’ve realised that something was amiss when I checked the local forecast again, and found that the deluge had been deferred to 11 p.m. But by then I’d seen the Telegraph simulation model showing the ugly storms tracking northward like wolves loping across the fields. They came in packs.

It was going to be one of those storms that knocked out the electricity supply in whole regions of England, demolished a few chimneys, and had flooded roads sweeping cars away. A few people would probably be killed.

But I was ready. I even had candles and torches ready for when the lights went out. At one point I even thought I could hear the distant thunder, and see the far-off lightning.

But when I fell asleep at 1:30 am, the storm still hadn’t come. Although I knew the thunder would wake me, if the lightning didn’t, or the water sluicing off the roof and down the windows.

Yet when I woke at 7:30 am, it was sunny, and the roads were dry. There weren’t even the tell-tale damp patches that indicate earlier rainfall.

There had been no storm.

It hadn’t even rained.

I’d just been fooled again by the experts. I’m always being fooled by experts. They’re probably having a good laugh about it right now. Tee hee.

In fact there actually was flooding in Cornwall.

Heavy rain which sent a 4ft torrent of water through a Cornish village has left a “devastating” scene, a fire chief said.

About 50 properties were damaged and several people had to be rescued in Coverack, on the Lizard Peninsula, as storms hit on Tuesday afternoon,

Water swept through the village, leaving roads in and out impassable. A school bus remains stranded.

Just not round here. The wolves didn’t come this far north. They stopped in Cornwall and savaged a village, unloading 4 feet of water on it.

So, OK. If it didn’t rain last night, it may still rain today.

When are the storms going to hit Manchester? There’s some horrendous weather heading our way

It’s like global warming. Or lung cancer. You know it’s coming. Everybody knows it’s coming, and everyone’s waiting with their computers unplugged, their candles and torches ready, and their trousers rolled up to just below their knees.

And then you gradually realise that you’ve just been fooled again. And you feel a bit sheepish about it. And hope that nobody noticed that you were wandering around with your trousers rolled up, and a torch in your hand.

Weather forecasts can only fool people for a day or two. But lung cancer warnings and global warming predictions can keep people fooled for years, even decades. Maybe centuries.

So, you may not have lung cancer yet – but just wait another 20 years, and you will.

So, the temperature outside may be the same as it always was, with trees and grass and stuff growing nice and green – but just wait another century, and it’s going to be a scorching desert.

You do believe me, don’t you? Good. I thought you would. I’m an expert.

About Frank Davis

This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

39 Responses to Fooled Again

  1. beobrigitte says:

    Indeed, there are thunderstorms forecast today. So far it’s dry.
    I won’t be pulling plugs, nor will I turn the electricity off. The only time I had an adverse effect (fried ethernet) was when the only one lightening hit the telephone company box down the road.

    I don’t believe any “experts”, anyway.

  2. I remember one of the GW Brits sorrowing about 15 years ago over how the children then being born in UK would never be able to experience snowfalls.

    • Rose says:

      Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
      Monday 20 March 2000

      “According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

      “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

      Click to access snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-the-independent.pdf

      • “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,”
        Oh yeah…cos Columbia is gonna stop producing any time soon, like?
        Or as they say in Germany ‘Den Schnee auf dem wir alle Talwärts fahr’n, Kennt heute jedes Kind’
        (These days every child knowns the snow,/i> we’re all going downhill on..’.)

  3. dave says:

    Try this site for real time lightning alerts.

  4. I however, Northest Norfolk aka “Darwins Waiting Room”, awoke at 05:50 this morning to something akin to the Götterdämmerung; thunder and lightening (Son Of The 80s that I am ,that phrase always conjures up Toyah in a chariot ). The lights fluttered, the MS-windows 7 shook but I didn’t unplug my router. Neither storm nor famine nor pestilence can keep me offline!

  5. slugbop007 says:

    Winnie the Pooh banned in China.


  6. Emily says:

    I guess we got your rain over here instead, I was caught out in a torrential downpour from 7-7:30 PM.

  7. beobrigitte says:

    According to all (!!) weather forecasts there should be thunder and lightning around here since about 15:00 hrs. The clouds are disappearing and I can almost see blue sky.

    Oh, well, just as I thought earlier, “experts” never get anything right.

  8. Rose says:

    That’s interesting, a poll I took part in the other day is running at 45% for “yes, I smoke and I have no intention of giving up” or words to that effect.

    Smoking crackdown as Government announces plans to SLASH number of smokers to 12 per cent
    Jul 18, 2017

    • waltc says:

      61% , now including me, smoke and don’t intend to stop. But I enjoy tne hubris of the government’s believing that it and its programs can so perfectly control what people do. I also liked the Social Justice Warrior bewailing the inequality of the fact that tne poor smoke more than the rich. Maybe he means that the rich are being unfairly deprived of benefits of tobacco.

      • Vlad says:

        Voted and raised the percentage to 64%.
        Bunch of thieves, that’s what the lowlifes who ‘crackdown’ on smokers are. At least in the past the government had the decency to steal the money without insulting smokers.

        • Smoking Lamp says:

          I just voted and it is now 83% smoke and don’t want to quit. My real question is when will the media start presenting a balanced view on the issue rather than outright tobacco control propaganda? Or perhaps, more realistically, what will it take for us to demand that balance?

    • smokingscot says:

      163 votes so far and 83% ain’t conforming – and won’t.

      • I have stopped voting now (at 201 votes), finger is getting tired (i normally use the same software as the Anti-Smokers to multiple vote on polls but for some reason it wasn’t working right tonight & I was having to do it all old school).
        As to the piece itself; dear god, I knew the standards of journalism have sunken but that piece would have even the UNspeakable Arnott saying ‘hold on a minute’.

      • margo says:

        I’ve just done it – 100% now!

    • RdM says:

      Well it seems weird… the poll wouldn’t load for me last night (though the other pictures did) so I thought I’d try again tonight, some minutes ago… and it said I was the only voter so 100% for I smoke & have no intention of giving up etc.

      I don’t think it can be trusted…

      • I get that ‘100%’ if i load ‘APESTER’ Polls with Firefox. Probably a browser setting. If I load it with Chrome or Kmeleon it works fine.

        • RdM says:

          Ah, thanks for that;- yes, it had been Firefox (on Win XP). Loading with Chrome on a nearby iMac (Sierra) it’s 87% / 216 voters “Yes and I have no desire to stop”.

  9. Smoking Lamp says:

    In other news, The Guardian is continuing its attack on tobacco companies: “Tobacco companies interfere with health regulations, WHO reports”

    • RdM says:

      The price of coffee has approximately doubled since say the mid 90’s.
      Do we see any reduced prevalence of coffee drinkers?

      The last lines in the article…

      The example of coffee — coffee, of all things, an innocuous daily pleasure — makes me wonder: which innovations are we fretting about today that will cause our children to look back in puzzled wonder?

      Yeah. Tobacco Control.
      The “smokefree” generation. Yada yada.

  10. Joe L. says:

    C’mon, Frank–there’s obviously only one reason why this storm system is so unpredictable: anthropogenic climate change.


  11. Rose says:

    Parc Prison: Rise in violence since smoking ban

    A rise in the number of violent and self harm incidents at Parc Prison could be linked to the smoking ban, a review has found.
    The report said the ban at the Bridgend site had been well-managed and some prisoners had since stopped smoking.

    But it said tobacco and other contraband was still getting in and it was concerned about drones being used.
    The prison’s director Janet Wallsgrove said the number of violent incidents increased but were now dropping.
    Although no analysis has been carried out, the review said the ban “might be a factor” in the rise in violence.”

    “The board said no study had been carried out to analyse the impact of the smoking ban on prisoners, but it was concerned it “might be a factor in the increased level of incidents of self-harm and violence”.

    I’m not a bit surprised.

    Tobacco Smoke May Act as Antidepressant Drug

    “What our study demonstrates for the first time is that chronic smoking produces biological changes in the human brain that are antidepressant-like,” said Dr. Gregory A. Ordway, the study’s principal investigator. The lead author and collaborator is Dr. Violetta Klimek. He is a professor and she is an assistant professor in UMC’s Department of Psychiatry and Human Behavior.

    The investigators said the biological changes probably are not caused by the nicotine in tobacco alone, if at all. It appears that a compound produced when tobacco burns causes the changes in the brain; that compound probably includes a nitrate, they said.

    The overall study involved 20 human cadaver brains, including 10 from smokers and 10 from non-smokers. The published study covered a total of 16 brains.

    The scientists examined a lower, posterior portion of the brain that is associated with depression, the locus coeruleus. None of the subjects had been diagnosed with depression in their lifetimes, so that was not a factor, Ordway added.

    The study found that the brains of chronic smokers had neurochemical abnormalities in the locus coeruleus that can be produced by repeatedly treating laboratory animals with antidepressant drugs, he explained.”
    https: //

    “They ground up tobacco leaves and tested representative samples in a test tube to see if they inhibited MAO. From the fraction containing the most potent MAO inhibitor, they isolated a chemical known as 2,3,6-trimethyl-1,4-naphthoquinone.

    To find out whether this was a key MAO-inhibitor in cigarette smoke, Castagnoli’s team examined mice in which dopamine-producing neurons were killed with a compound called MPTP that’s converted to a toxin in the brain, causing symptoms much like Parkinson’s disease. Without the naphthoquinone, dopamine levels in the mice given MPTP dropped 60% below normal.
    Yet when the mice were pretreated with naphthoquinone, dopamine levels fell only 40%. This suggests that naphthoquinone “is a good [MAO] inhibitor–not gangbusters, but a good inhibitor,” Castagnoli says.
    Napthoquinone had previously been found in tobacco smoke, but not linked to dopamine.”

  12. Pingback: Completely Out Of Control | Frank Davis

No need to log in

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.