An Upcoming Berlin Wall Event?

Daily Mail:

Putin sends troops to Russia’s border with North Korea after China also sends soldiers to its boundary over fears Trump will attack Kim Jong-un, sparking a tidal wave of refugees

The Russian President has sent troops and equipment to his North Korea border

Footage shows trains carrying tanks to 11-mile frontier in Russia’s south east

Comes after China sent 150,000 troops to its own frontier with North Korea

There are fears of a mass exodus of North Korean refugees if war breaks out

Add also that Trump has been sending carrier fleets and missiles to South Korea, and by my reckoning North Korea now has a considerable army on every border, and a fleet off every coast. And none of them were there a few weeks ago.

Kim Jong Un must be feeling a bit hemmed in.

Perhaps that’s the whole point of the exercise? To me it looks like the USA and China and Russia are acting in concert together against North Korea.

And how do you stop refugees with tanks? Tanks are, in my book, offensive weapons which can move at considerable speed in the right terrain. They’re poised to roll into North Korea.

So I’m wondering whether Mr Art-of-the-Deal has pulled off his most extraordinary deal ever, and constructed a grand alliance to finally fix the festering sore of North Korea. Huge pressure is now being applied to North Korea on all sides. Maybe all trade has been suspended to the outside world. The starving, poverty-stricken people of North Korea are getting even more starving and poverty-stricken than ever. Fat Kim is waving nuclear weapons (which may not exist) at everyone, but he’s being told that if he tries anything like that, there’ll be an immediate attack.

So Kim will be facing mounting internal pressure from his starving people, while being blocked from using what military power is available to him. The most likely outcome is a coup to overthrow him, followed by a simultaneous bloodless occupation of North Korea as US, Chinese, and Russian tanks roll into it.

Are we about to witness an event equivalent to the Fall of the Berlin Wall? It would remove a thorn in everyone’s side. I imagine that China and Russia and the USA are all just about equally sick of the North Korean regime. A normalisation of the failed state of North Korea, that turns it into a state like any other, would be good for the USA, good for China, and good for Russia. It would also be very good for North Korea, and for South Korea as well. There’d only be one loser: Fat Kim.

It perhaps answers something that’s been puzzling me about Xi Jinping: why didn’t he turn round and climb back onto his plane after Donald Trump launched 60 cruise missiles into Syria the same day? Why was he looking so serene before the news cameras? Why was he wearing a Trump tie?

The answer, maybe, was that Xi had flown to meet Trump in order to finalise the details of their upcoming joint corporate take-over of North Korea. And if everything goes perfectly according to plan, Fat Kim will be toppled in the next few weeks, and we’ll be seeing Berlin Wall scenes at the always-fraught North Korean and South Korean border, as well Pyongyang and Seoul, and Red Cross distributing food to starving North Koreans.

With luck, it’ll all go bloodlessly. Nobody is expecting to fight. They’re expecting a bloodless victory of the overwhelming forces now besieging North Korea. It may just be a question of how big a bribe Fat Kim needs to be given, before flies off to a safe place in, say, Paraguay.

Anyway, that’s my guess. It’s the only way I can make it all add up.

But what do I know?

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About Frank Davis

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14 Responses to An Upcoming Berlin Wall Event?

  1. nisakiman says:

    We’ve heard it said many times (I’ve even said it myself) that Trump is a bit of a loose cannon, but he’s a mere tyro compared to Kim Jong Un.

    Kim is not only a megalomaniac; he’s completely bonkers and lacking in any compassion whatsoever. If he has got nuclear capability, he’s quite likely to use it if he feels he’s been backed into a corner.

    We’ve seen that any perceived internal threat to him has been dealt with ruthlessly, with no thought given to the niceties of proof. Just a suspicion is enough to consign one to an unnecessarily brutal end.

    The North Koreans have been immersed in nationalistic propaganda for so long that they probably all believe it, including Kim. I very much doubt that his pride will allow him to give up without a fight. I hope you’re right in your assessment, Frank, but personally I see the situation as potentially a disaster waiting to happen.

    The only redeeming factor is that both the Russians and the Chinese are taking an active interest, which might just convince Kim that resistance is futile, and a deal needs to be struck. I imagine that deal would involve Kim retaining power in a closed state on the condition of being de-fanged and agreeing to a policy of non-aggression. Any attempt to remove him from power will likely be met with a ‘death or glory’ response.

    • smokingscot says:

      The fat git was born and raised in the belief that he’d one day take over from Daddy. Came rather more rapidly than either expected, so little Kim had one heck of a job stamping his authority, which he did (to an extent) by slaughtering a whole bunch of very senior Party Officials.

      He’s tried a terribly superficial attempt at something like a free market with street markets being tolerated in some rural areas. Then there’s the Rason Special Economic Zone, which was established in 1992, but that his Pop set up and that’s had so many changes of legislation that they were still fine tuning it in 2011.

      en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rason_Special_Economic_Zone

      Their latest wheeze is a ferry cum casino, presumably for wealthy Russians, who fancy a trip from Vladivostok to Kosong (pretty cold, both places).

      nknews.org/2017/03/north-korea-seeking-foreign-investment-in-new-casino-cruise-lines-website/

      Doubtless you’ll know about Kim’s personal fixation. A ski resort that it seems is only kept operational because they use children to clear the ski runs.

      telegraph.co.uk/travel/ski/news/north-korea-ski-resort-kept-open-by-child-labour/

      But the fat git’s sussed that the only way he can continue in power is to throw everything he’s got into the military and of late that’s had a very bad knock-on effect with investment in other parts of the economy playing second fiddle. So no water, sewerage or electricity in the rural areas. Even in Pyongyang it’s hellish erratic, so much so that hospitals and even airports have blackouts. They have backup generators, but only for lightweight stuff, so no heating or air conditioning or even x-rays.

      I see this chap being of the same mindset as the Reverend Jim Jones (he of Guyana fame). “I go, you go (because without me you’re lost)”.

      Yet even amongst his flock, there were many who did not want to drink the kool aid – and they were forced to sup, much to the dismay of Jim.

      There are oh so many in N Korea who despise their rulers and those who are agents of the State (many of whom expect a very big cut from those street markets I spoke of). In fact the local officials and the incessant loudspeakers and so on just grate. As does being forced to witness executions and lining up for official parades (and not being able to leave for several hours, resulting in many being forced to pee in their pants).

      No I didn’t add that for amusement. This here rather gentle-on-the-eyes defector goes into life in N Korea in great detail:

      http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4421034/North-Korean-defector.html

      the article was penned two days ago, but the lady in question has been going strong in her repugnance of the regime for several years.

      My own opinion is the strategic targets in N Korea are well known. Ports, navy, electricity, water, dams, nuclear facilities, military airbases, radio and television stations as well as anything telephone might take half a morning. Roads, bridges, oil tanks, railways, airports, commercial ports might take until 13.00 hours.

      The fat one and military command are key to this; they have to go PDQ – and that’s not at public displays, like they had last week. They don’t want innocent casualties if at all possible.

      If they’re going to go, it’ll be when they’ve got 100% solid intel that they can get tubby and the heads of the armed forces in one place. And that means they need someone on the ground with that sort of information, with a means of communicating it to S Korea or the Yanks.

      What to look for are huge shipments of humanitarian supplies because the average N Korean is real easy to sway, a 600 calorie meal three times a day.

      All they need is a pretext. Will the fat git provide it?

  2. Lisboeta says:

    I’m not sure there is any ‘good’ outcome. A coup to overthrow Kim is not really on the cards. The population is only too aware of what happens to people — and their family members — that Kim suspects of disloyalty. Deference is ingrained: his father and grandfather were equally brutal. The other two options are:
    (1) A permanent stand-off, with NK hemmed in on all sides. (Costly for the hemmers-in, and Kim and his army will still get fed because there’s always someone willing to breach embargoes.)
    (2) A jointly-planned invasion by China, Russia and USA. (Which wouldn’t be good for the NK people and, using your Berlin analogy, could see NK carved up into 3 mutually-antagonistic zones.)
    It’s more likely that the status quo will be maintained, albeit with some serious arm-twisting to make Kim understand that he’d better rein in his threats and posturing, or else….

  3. Excellent analysis Frank!

    I might have to agree partially with Lisboeta though: a coup is unlikely given the total brainwashing/god-complex thing in N.K. And given that as well, I doubt a bloodless invasion would work.

    More likely in my view would be a flurry of cruise missiles at a very definitely identified location for Kim, supplemented by a U.S./Russia sanctioned Chinese invasion as NK troops realized their leadership was gone (with a Chinese guarantee that they’ll set up a puppet/friendly NK government similar to what we’ve had in South Korea). Nisakiman’s alternative would be preferable in terms of avoiding the amount of bloodshed in “collateral damage” and “unintended consequences,” but whether Kim is sane enough to go for it is another question.

  4. garyk30 says:

    Kim will be assinated by the Chinese.

  5. garyk30 says:

    OT:
    Happy Earth Day
    Tho, the Earth could not be aware of mankind’s existence.

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