Smoking Causes Trumpinoma

Following on from yesterday.

Exhibit A (click on map for enlarged version) 2016 electoral college votes:

us2106electionmap

Exhibit B:

us2010adultsmoking

1: 100% (7/7) of the most heavily smoking states voted Republican (red).

2: 90% (9/10) of the second most heavily smoking states voted Republican.

3: 56% (9/16) of the third most heavily smoking states voted Republican.

4: 28% (4/14) of the fourth most heavily smoking states voted Republican.

5: 33% (1/3) of the least heavily smoking states voted Republican.

A couple of states seem to have gone missing, and I’ve assumed that one or other of the eastern seaboard states has the lowest level of adult smoking prevalence

Whichever way, the correlation is clear: US states with high smoking prevalence voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump.

May we not say that smokers were decisive in electing Donald Trump?

But perhaps some further explanation is needed for why smokers voted for Trump in 2016, but not Romney in 2012.

The answer, I suggest, is that Hillary Clinton was very strongly identified as a virulent antismoker in US smokers’ eyes. She had been instrumental in introducing a smoking ban into the White House during Bill Clinton’s presidency, and (H/T MJM),

…she engineered what turned out to likely be the LARGEST TAX INCREASE IN THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF THE WORLD with the SCHIP tax increase of over 2,000% on loose tobacco and small cigars.

So US smokers were powerfully motivated to vote against Hillary Clinton, out of fear at what new antismoking measures her presidency might bring (e.g. a federal smoking ban?). For smokers Trump might have been an ambiguous figure (he doesn’t smoke or drink, and once made a slightly tongue-in-cheek antismoking ad – yet he also owned a smoke-filled casino in Atlantic City, markets his own brand of wine, and has smoker-sympathetic Mike Pence as VP). Of the two, Hillary Clinton was the far, far, scarier figure.

As for Obama v Romney in 2012, Obama had been (and was widely believed to continue to be) a smoker, and had only given up smoking when wife Michelle demanded he do so. Obama was not even half as scary as Hillary, and smokers felt no need to vote against him.

Needless to say, no pollster will notice the correlation demonstrated above, and all pollsters will continue to ignore smokers as a powerful smoking voting bloc.

About Frank Davis

smoker
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23 Responses to Smoking Causes Trumpinoma

  1. Lecroix says:

    Reblogged this on Contra la ley "antitabaco" and commented:
    Correlación entre estados que han votado a Trump y el porcentaje de personas que fuman tabaco en cada uno de esos estados.

    Recomiendo que echéis un vistazo pues este análisis, indiscutible, nadie en la tv la prensa o la radio, de ningún sitio, os lo va a presentar:

    1: 100% (7/7) of the most heavily smoking states voted Republican (red).

    2: 90% (9/10) of the second most heavily smoking states voted Republican.

    3: 56% (9/16) of the third most heavily smoking states voted Republican.

    4: 28% (4/14) of the fourth most heavily smoking states voted Republican.

    5: 33% (1/3) of the least heavily smoking states voted Republican.

  2. Roobeedoo2 says:

    In 2008:

    ‘Donald Trump called on 11 casinos Thursday to sue over a new smoking ban approved by the Atlantic City Council, arguing that it created a competitive disadvantage, according to a report in the Associated Press.’

    http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2008/04/trump_atlantic_city_casinos_sh.html

  3. Heres what the smoking rates are/were who knows for sure

    The ranking goes for all cancer deaths/mortality:

    Per 100,000 population CDC NUMBERS/ smoking rates from tobacco free kids

    Kentucky at 207 Adults in Kentucky who smoke* 29.0% (971,000)

    Miss. 200 Adults in Mississippi who smoke* 26.0% (579,300)

    West Virginia 196 Adults in West Virginia who smoke* 28.6% (420,500)

    Louisianna 196 Adults in Louisiana who smoke* 25.7% (888,300)

    Arkansas 193 Adults in Arkansas who smoke* 27.0% (601,400)

    Alabama 190 Adults in Alabama who smoke* 24.3% (893,100)

    Indiana 187 Adults in Indiana who smoke* 25.6% (1,259,300)

    Maine 186 Adults in Maine who smoke* 22.8% (241,400)

    Missouri 184 Adults in Missouri who smoke* 25.0% (1,149,600)

    Delaware 184 Adults in Delaware who smoke* 21.8% (153,100)

    South Carolina 182 Adults in South Carolina who smoke* 23.1% (831,200)

    Lung and Bronchus. Invasive Cancer Incidence Rates and 95% Confidence Intervals by Age and Race and Ethnicity, United States (Table 3.15.1.1M) *†‡

    Rates are per 100,000 persons. Rates are per 100,000 persons.

    Note the age where LC is found…………..OLD AGE group incidence hits the 500/100,000 at age 75-85

    AGE it seems is the deciding factor……….

    http://apps.nccd.cdc.gov/uscs/… Cancer Sites Combined&Year=2010&Site=Lung and Bronchus&SurveyInstanceID=1

    • the numbers compared to populations shows theres more than enuf smoker voters to have brought all those states to a trump win.

      • smokervoter says:

        the numbers compared to populations shows theres more than enuf smokervoters to have brought all those states to a trump win.

        There I fixed that for you. One word, a noun and no hyphen. I’ll get that word into the dictionary if it’s the last thing I do.

        The word suddenly popped into my head somewhere around 2001. Before that my lonely, little pro-smoking website was called something like geocities/blassie/lousy.html back before the turn of the century. My first posting informed California smokers that contrary to a common misconception, they could legally purchase 10 cartons of Mexican cigarettes per visit and not just one.

  4. I one time took all the states and figured how many were smokers in each state above is a few of them.

  5. No we cant believe cdc or ACS figures for the percentile smoking…………even they know their figures cant be quantified in any realistic manner.

  6. garyk30 says:

    Things are not quite that simple, tho I wish they were.

    Utah has a 12% smoking rate and 47% voted Trump

    Calif..15% and 33%

    Wash D.C.,Illinois, and Wyoming all have about a 20% smoking rate and respectively voted 6%…..39%….and 70% for Trump.
    D.C. and Wyoming have about the same population and smoking rates; but, DC is a predominantly black city that relies on federal money while Wyoming is a mostly white, rural and does not rely on federal money to survive.

    Smokers as a percentage of voters is rather lower than as a percentage of the population.

    • 50 million plus is low! the number of smokes today is the same as 1965 or more now.
      CDC ACS will promote lower rates and claim it,why because they have to show their BS LAWS ARE WORKING. Until they need another grant then they claim a surge.

    • smokervoter says:

      I’ve got a spreadsheet file (created on Microsoft Works 4.0, a real gem of a program) that I use as a self reference. It’s about 6 years old.

      Based on a 55% normal turnout and 46 million (cigarette) smokers, I figured there were 25.3 million likely smokervoters during a given presidential election. From there I have many different preponderance cogitations (h/t Junican for that word usage).

      If smokers voted for Republicans at a preponderance of 80%-20% like the holy Melanin Bloc that the Democrats so cherish and nurture, the vote would go something like 20.2 Fer and 5.1 Against in favor of the Republicans. The 15 million net vote is a little more than the entire Latino vote.

      It usually takes about 65 million votes to win the popular vote. Smokers would represent damn near a third of that sum. Of course, the electoral college is a major mitigating factor. Nonetheless like Mr. Smokervoter, the mascot at my lonely, little website says …”If I were running for president I’d watch out how I treat these people.”

  7. For some reason I thought Texas would have a higher smoking prevalence. Was there in June and you could smoke in at least some bars.

    • martin texas is pretty wide open on smoking save the bastions of lefturds in the bigger cities.

    • waltc says:

      My reaction was the same about Texas–don t believe it’s that low, but then I think all the stats are lowball since people lie to phone surveyors, and even to their doctors and on all those medical forms that now, as a matter of course, nosily ask.

      As for the rest of the grand theory (first I’m knocked out that Frank dug out the official smoke stats) tho Gary makes an excellent and clearly true point, I think Frank was saying that in all the states, pissed-off smokers could well have upped the R vote. In many of the states that clocked in as R wins in the electoral vote, sometimes the R margin was as narrow as 20,000 popular votes. Smokers might indeed have put it over the top.

      I’s also add that even since 2012, the noose has tightened on smokers–more taxes, at least on the state level, more and wider (outdoor, in car, housing) bans, enough to turn many only slightly-aggrieved smokers into a real “throw the bums out” mob.

  8. Smoking Lamp says:

    It’s time to unleash the smokervoter and start a movevent to overturn smoking bans.

  9. Harleyrider1978 says:
    • waltc says:

      Love it. And get those snotty smirks on the faces around him. They learn nothing. And speaking of snotty smirks as yet another reason the left lost, here’s the neat take from a seen-the-light liberal

  10. smokingscot says:

    @ Frank

    “Needless to say, no pollster will notice the correlation demonstrated above, and all pollsters will continue to ignore smokers as a powerful smoking bloc.”

    Didya really mean that, or “powerful voting bloc”?

  11. Pingback: The Hidden Power of Smokers | Frank Davis

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