Winner and Losers

I’m probably going to be a bit obsessed with the US presidential election for the next month or so. It seems to me that it’s almost as important as the UK Brexit vote, perhaps even more so.

More and more people are suggesting that Hillary may not show up to the debate with Donald Trump on Monday (something I first suggested might happen on August 9). Infowars reports:

Now Infowars has received information from multiple high level sources detailing that if Hillary fails to show up at the first presidential debate, scheduled to be the biggest in history, the democrats will force her to drop out of the race.

The democrats also began holding special meetings to find a possible replacement as media outlets wondered if Clinton would be well enough to continue her campaign.

Infowars has also reported that even the Washington Post has suggested that Hillary might drop out of the debates, claiming that she needs to recuperate from her bout of pneumonia until the end of October. But they didn’t provide a link.

And if she actually does show up, what are the chances of her managing to remain standing for the whole 90 minutes? Near zero, I suspect.

Meanwhile, Rush Limbaugh quotes from a Peggy Noonan piece:

Peggy Noonan has a column today, and I can back this up; I’ve run into the same thing, too. She says it is phenomenal the number of people she knows who are gonna vote for Trump who don’t want anybody to know it, establishment types, political types, people that travel in her universe, from the Hamptons, to Manhattan, to wherever. But even when she’s traveling around just asking people that are not in the establishment, like at county fair type stuff, says she loves talking to strangers, and she asks them.

She says there’s so many people who will tell her that they’re voting for Trump but they don’t want anybody to know because there has been such a negative onslaught against Trump that there’s a, “I don’t want to hear it. I don’t want to hear people complaining. I don’t want people calling me stupid.” She says it’s an incredible number. So there is that effect going on with all of this, too. None of that for Hillary. There isn’t any closet Hillary vote out there.

Quoting Noonan:

“The most arresting sentence of the week came from a sophisticated Manhattan man friendly with all sides.” …  “I asked if he knows what he’ll do in November. ‘I know exactly,’ he said with some spirit. ‘I will be one of the 40 million who will deny, the day after the election, that they voted for him. But I will.'”

So even if opinion polls are currently showing Clinton with a narrow lead, it could be that people aren’t telling pollsters the truth. The same thing happened with Brexit. The Remain propaganda was so intense and so negative that people just kept their mouths shut, and then went and voted Leave.

Personally I think that Trump is going to win in November. And I’ve thought that more or less since I first learned he was running. And one of the main reasons why I thought he was going to win was because he presented himself as a winner from the outset (and everyone else in the race as losers). And people want to back winners rather than losers. Everyone likes seeing their horse win. It was great to see Brexit win back in June. And Hillary Clinton is looking more and more like a loser.

I just wish I’d put a bet on Donald Trump back in July last year. I could probably have got 100:1 odds. He was regarded as a complete joke, but not by me.

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About Frank Davis

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11 Responses to Winner and Losers

  1. cherie79 says:

    I am following it non stop too, it’s fascinating and I agree that there are a lot of quiet Trump supporters out there who recognise that he is the only chance of any change before it’s too late. I think if Hillary failed to show up she would be finished so I doubt it will happen though whether she will last the 90 minutes who knows. I am still amazed that the Democrats anointed her given her terrible record, patent dishonesty and greed, to say nothing ft her obvious health problems, surely they could have found someone better? All her vaunted ‘success’ was riding on Bills coat tails, another dishonest but very clever politician with all the charm she lacks. My son has £100 on Trump to win.

  2. ladyraj says:

    The article from Infowars gave me a good laugh. I suspect Hillary wouldn’t miss a chance to debate Trump and use his short attention span to make him look bad. Have you actually listened to Trump when he gives a speech? It’s hilarious.

    I wonder if a lot of democrats showed up at the republican primaries to vote for Trump to guarantee there wouldn’t be a viable candidate to run against Hillary. The general stance of the Dems is that Trump is a silly man and if he were her competition…she’d win by a landslide.

    The Dems are right…Trump is a silly man. But the mood of the country seems to be that silly is much better than another 4 years of crazy. :-)

    On one hand with Hillary, we get a 2 for 1 deal and perhaps Bill can explain what ‘Top Secret’ and ‘Confidential’ actually mean. On the other hand, Bill was behind expanding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which made sub-prime lending commonplace. Track record…not good!

    Perhaps I need to invest in popcorn…the Trump show will be interesting at least! lol

  3. The debate COULD always change to a sit-down format. Hillary could simply claim that her pneumonia recovery demands it and Trump would have to join her in the request or look like a hard-hearted heel. And the media would have to give in.

    If Trump is truly convinced that Hillary is afraid to face him (I doubt that’s true and I doubt he’s convinced of it.), he could even pre-empt her excuse by appearing to be VERY nice and proposing the sit-down format himself, nicely explaining that “Everyone has some issues sometimes.” and coming off looking like a nice guy.

    Re the “Secret Trump Voters” — yep, I’ll bet there are a lot out there. Clinton supporters go absolutely NUTS when any “normal” or (even more so) when anyone even vaguely “liberal” mentions they MIGHT vote for Trump. Hitlers and Nuclear Bombs and Immigrant Children Wrapped In Chains are paraded out and about along with simple disbelief that the listener has actually just heard a supposedly sane person say such a thing! Saying you might vote for Johnson, the Libertarian, merits almost the same response … based on a “Then you’re actually voting for TRUMP!” rejoinder.

    Just as the easiest response to “Would you like to quit smoking?” or “Why haven’t you quit smoking?” is, of course, “Well, I’d like to and I’ve tried but I can’t cuz I’m addicted!” Lying is simply the easiest way to avoid a pointless argument with the other side pulling “authorities” (either governmental for Clinton or Antismoking for quitting) out of their wazoo and then declaring that the only explanation for your choice/feelings MUST simply be that you are STOOPID.

    btw… spell-checker didn’t like my pre-empt up there. I have once again been betrayed by my 8-year-old self who spent a summer reading Oliver Twist and A Christmas Carol and all sorts of other British and Irish writers from my parents’ home library. The British grammar and spellings have stuck with me for over a half-century at this point. :>

    You can see the frequency difference if you look at:

    https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=preempt%2Cpre-empt&year_start=1800&year_end=2008&corpus=18&smoothing=5&share=&direct_url=t1%3B%2Cpreempt%3B%2Cc0%3B.t1%3B%2Cpre%20-%20empt%3B%2Cc0

    which is in British English, and then click on the language box to change it to American English.

    :)
    Michael, Irish Redcoat In Disguise…

  4. waltc says:

    News report this AM (whether true ir not) said: she wanted a rest break w/ i the debate. His side said no. Result: no break. She wanted the hidden platform of her podium to be raised so she looked as tall as he. She won,. She wanted a special stepstool to help her get onto it. She lost. As for the rest. She’ll definitely show. If she didn’t she’d definitely lose the election. Instead, she’s basically taken the week off from campaigning “to rest and prepare.”

  5. Lepercolonist says:

    In the 1960 presidential debate between Kennedy and Nixon, JFK won amongst T.V. viewers while Nixon won with radio listeners. Sometimes the visual imagery is more important than the substance. Kennedy was more telegenic. Hillary has much more experience as a politician but Trump is more telegenic. Should be interesting.

  6. waltc says:

    Trump is circulating this questionnairre about how he should handle the debate. Asks for your name and email address at the end and then of course asks for $ (that you don’t have to give) after that. If you want to play:

    https://action.trump2016.com/debate-prep-survey/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ELC_elections-2016_debate-prep-survey&utm_content=092316-debate-prep-inh-v1-jfc-t-t-hf-w+-+4&utm_source=e_t-t

  7. Manfred says:

    So, it’s as politically incorrect to smoke as it is to vote Trump? Doesn’t this perfectly confirm the under-reporting bias associated with official stats and the intellectually low wattage MSM polls? Far more people smoke than the epidemiological statistics suggest (ie. at least 30% population) and of course, Trump will “shockingly” romp in. Almost everyone will deny they voted for the new Administration. Invertebrate Progressives may even go so far as to demand another election as we saw in the UK with Brexit. Secretly though, the unter-MAJORITY will be in their back yards celebrating and enjoying a quiet puff, while savoring the obvious upturn for the better.

  8. Frank Davis says:

    ZeroHedge

    Ted Cruz Endorses Donald Trump: “After Many Months Of Prayer I Have Decided I Will Vote For Donald Trump”

  9. Frank Davis says:

    Politico

    I was a Democrat all my life. I came to Washington to serve President John Kennedy and Attorney General Robert Kennedy. When the president was murdered and his brother struck off on his own, I joined his Senate campaign and staff as his legislative assistant and speechwriter, until his presidential campaign ended with his own assassination…

    This year, I will vote to elect Donald Trump as president of the United States.

    So profound a change, and a decent respect for old friendships, requires me to deliver a public accounting for this decision.

    Here it is. John and Robert Kennedy devoted their greatest commitments and energies to the prevention of war and the preservation of peace. To them that was not an abstract formula but the necessary foundation of human life. But today’s Democrats have become the Party of War: a home for arms merchants, mercenaries, academic war planners, lobbyists for every foreign intervention, promoters of color revolutions, failed generals, exploiters of the natural resources of corrupt governments. We have American military bases in 80 countries, and there are now American military personnel on the ground in about 130 countries, a remarkable achievement since there are only 192 recognized countries. Generals and admirals announce our national policies. Theater commanders are our principal ambassadors. Our first answer to trouble or opposition of any kind seems always to be a military movement or action…

  10. Dan says:

    From a betting perspective, I backed Trump about a month ago at 3/1, Clinton was 1/4 I think. Trump’s now 7/4 and Clinton 4/9. Barring disasters in debates, I expect him to win too. The betting is following a very similar pattern to Brexit. The value bet might be if you can work out who the Democrat nominee would be if she pulls out of the race through ill health, ie if that bout of “pneumonia” suddenly morphs into Parkinson’s.
    This is a good article which shows the difference between the two candidates: http://catallaxyfiles.com/2016/09/24/guest-post-robert-carruthers-some-bad-ideas-never-die/
    There may be a woman standing for POTUS, but it’s really between Trump and Soros.

  11. smokingscot says:

    O/T (but it is about winners and losers)

    Mr. Corbyn wins with virtually 62% of the vote by members (up on his 2015 result).

    Mr. Smith of course picked up about 38% from members, but almost 80% from elected colleagues.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/24/labour-leadership-results-jeremy-corbyn-set-for-huge-win-but-fac/

    Yes I know it was a foregone conclusion and there was talk that he may get a little more than 2015. But this does warm me cockles. It’s another case of our legislators being way out of touch from the people whom they claim tor represent.

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