I’m beginning to wonder whether David Cameron is really a closet Brexiter. First of all he goes to Brussels and very publicly fails to get a “new deal” for Britain. Then he conducts a campaign of fear and threats that was more or less guaranteed to get a lot of people’s backs up.
And then, as soon as Brexit has won, he firstly immediately accepts the result, and announces his resignation not now, but in 4 or 5 months time. And what that means, it seems to me, is that he has bought the Conservative party 4 or 5 months to not only elect a new leader, but also start to begin to figure out how to actually best get out of the EU – because nobody really knows how to do it.
So that means that nothing is going to happen for months. And I think that’s a good thing. There’s no need to rush. Also, it’ll mean that nothing will happen to overturn the result (if it can be overturned) for months. It introduces a pause, a breathing space.
The EU, on the other hand, wants the whole process over and done with as quickly as possible, so they can re-normalise European politics and return to business as usual. If there’s going to be a divorce, they don’t want the soon-to-be ex-wife still living in the family home, and arguing about who owns the car and the kids and the cat. And while it’s all hanging over them, there are going to be more and more EU member states calling for their own referendums. The EU might get snowed under, and become completely paralysed.
But paralysis is what there’s going to be. And there’s going to be political chaos for months.
The pause also happens to coincide with the upcoming US Presidential election. Donald Trump is going to be telling Americans that “the Brits have taken their country back, and Americans need to do the same.” In fact, that’s exactly what he has already said while visiting Scotland during the referendum (amazing timing for the visit).
So there’s going to be political paralysis and chaos in Britain, and political paralysis and chaos in Europe, and an accompanying political firestorm in the USA (where there is one already).
Is it all completely accidental? Did David Cameron ever have to promise a referendum? Didn’t he realise that he might lose it? Was he secretly trying to lose it? He couldn’t have done a much better job of losing it.
We’ll probably never know. But it’s thrown a monkey wrench into politics not just in the UK, but also the entire EU, and even the USA, and maybe the entire world.
It might almost be better for the EU to say right now, “Forget about Article 50! Have whatever terms you like! But we must agree them immediately. Because we can’t go on like this, even if you can.”
And David Cameron holds all the cards.
And while the uncertainty lasts, stock markets will shudder. Everything will creak and groan. There will be strange portents in the sky, birds seen flying upside down, sea monsters washed up on beaches, UFOs, earthquakes, and volcanoes.
As a matter of interest, U.S. conservative talk radio has been all over the Brexit vote, approving of the British vote.
Here’s Mark Levin on Friday:
And Rush Limbaugh on Friday: