Expect Bad Tempers For A Long Time

Well, this time tomorrow it’ll be all over. And the outcome may not become clear until deep into the night. I’m not sure if I’ll stay up late.

I still have no idea what the outcome will be. A week or so back it looked like Brexit were on a roll, but then Jo Cox was murdered and the steam went out of it all. Nigel Farage was bemoaning the fact on Monday:

Nigel Farage On Brexit: “We Had Momentum Until This Terrible Tragedy”

Other reports had everyone breathing a collective sigh of relief. Britain was going to remain in the EU. There was almost celebration in the air.

“It is stunning how quickly we have spun to the assumption that Remain is a done deal.”

But today there came yet another twist.

Stocks and sterling are sliding once again as a second poll hits showing “leave” leading massively 49% Leave vs 42% Remain…

And over the past day or two a number of people have been asking whether the Jo Cox murder was a false flag attack to bounce the British people into voting to remain.

For myself, my mind has been made up since long before the campaign started. But if I had been been sitting on the fence, I’m very far from sure that the stream of scares and threats coming from the Remain camp would have induced me to vote to remain. In fact, I can imagine that it would have had the opposite effect. They could have run a charm offensive featuring Italian cars, French blondes, Spanish footballers, German lagers, plus dancers and jugglers and street musicians. But no. Instead it’s all been very, very menacing. But then, that’s standard practice in the EU these days.

I’m just wondering what will happen if Brexit wins. Because I suspect that our europhile parliament and political class will simply refuse to do anything about it. Or will drag their feet to ensure that Britain never quite gets round to actually leaving.

Whatever happens, I’m beginning to believe that the EU is going to disintegrate anyway, and everyone will be exiting it, whether they want to or not. I spent some time today writing an essay setting out my reasoning. I’ll probably publish it sometime in the next few days.

And also, whatever happens, British politics will be bad-tempered for a long time to come. There are divisions that have opened up over the past few months which aren’t going to close any time soon. And if the vote is very close, nobody is going to take it as decisive.

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About Frank Davis

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20 Responses to Expect Bad Tempers For A Long Time

  1. harleyrider1978 says:

    tHE MERE FACT THIS IS SUCH A TURMOIL not just in the UK but all over Europe shows the EU is only a dream hanging on by nothing. Politically the EU is dead.

  2. Tony says:

    Even if we lose:

    The Scottish “independence” referendum, in late 2014, was 45% yes, 55% no. Significant “yes” vote but a fairly clear “no” result. But what happened afterwards was a huge surge in support for the SNP and six months later they won 56 of the 59 seats available for Westminster, up from a mere 6 five years earlier.

  3. Manfred says:

    “EU is only a dream hanging on by nothing”
    It’s the broken nightmare of a dead thing reflexively clinging on with its shattered finger tips and broken nails. It has yet to realise it died. It soon may when people the people of Europe learn they each own E25,357 of the EU ‘dream’: http://www.eudebtclock.org/

  4. garyk30 says:

    If the EU does not disband, what is next?
    It has progressed from coal and steel trading partners for 6 nations to the EEC to the EU with 28 nations with it’s own flag-national anthem-bank- and money.

    Would seem that their next step is a ‘European Federation’ or a ‘Federated States of Europe’ with Brussels lording over the member states, just as Washington(DC) rules the states of the USA.

    There are few limits to the Greed for power.

  5. barnacle bill says:

    I fear the result of the referendum has already been decided/engineered with the telephone lines between der bunker under No. 10 and Harare buzzing these past weeks.
    However, the ill feelings that have been generated by this very nasty campaign, are going to fester on for a long time afterwards. Nowhere can I see a “statesman” capable of lancing this festering sore and uniting the country once again. Too many genies have been let out of their respective bottles. Both on a public, party and personal level.

  6. Steven says:

    According to the latest odds remain are clear favourites.However this will be due to the weight of money.Bookmakers are accountants,they balance the books.However what this referendum has shown is that we need a new political party to speak for the country,not for themselves.Please note Messrs Izard and geldorf the far left is as intolerant as the far right.

  7. Timothy Goodacre says:

    Geldof has no right to speak. He’s an Irish citizen.

  8. Oi you says:

    For some reason, all my farcebook friends are for Remain, while those I know in real life are all for Leave. Interesting.

    :o)

  9. harleyrider1978 says:

    from dave Atherton

  10. Frank Davis says:

    Townhall

    LONDON, United Kingdom – Working class voters in the traditional Labour heartlands of Northern England have flocked to the referendum polling stations today, according to grassroots leave campaigners. Activists believe these traditionalists are likely to back Brexit in areas Remain had expected to win easily.

    A pro-Brexit councillor in the town of Wigan in Greater Manchester told TownHall he was “stunned” by the turnout. He claimed it was “no longer a case of if we will win Wigan but by how much”. The town is solidly Labour supporting has not elected a member of parliament from any other party in over 100 years.

  11. harleyrider1978 says:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nervous-voters-taking-pens-eu-8263787

    Nervous voters are taking their own pens to EU polling stations – here’s why you shouldn’t worry

  12. Smoking Lamp says:

    Off topic, but good news from Czechia: “Czech Smoking Ban Fails to Pass
    After months of discussions, Czech MPs rejected the country’s long-debated ban on smoking in pubs and restaurants” http://www.expats.cz/prague/article/weekly-czech-news/czech-smoking-ban-fails-to-pass/

    • Smoking Lamp says:

      Forgot to mention, this is a bit dated but the on line poll shows a slight majority (51.53%) supporting the MPs who voted to reject the ban,,,

  13. Oi you says:

    Do we expect fraud in Tower Hamlets? All those postal votes…

    :o)

  14. smokingscot says:

    I thought all campaigning had to stop at midnight of the 22nd.

    Today – at about 5.30 pm – I saw a single engine aircraft flying over Princes Street with a banner trailing behind that read “Vote Remain”.

    Of course this is Scotland and the rules are for the proletariat, certainly not for the politicians. Yet someone paid for it – and while I laughed out loud (because it was a very old and noisy aircraft at full power against a a slight headwind – and the banner was very large indeed) it showed – to me at least – the sheer arrogance of the remain camp.

  15. prog says:

    Just posting to make doubly sure I’m not still asleep and dreaming…..

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