Well, this time tomorrow it’ll be all over. And the outcome may not become clear until deep into the night. I’m not sure if I’ll stay up late.
I still have no idea what the outcome will be. A week or so back it looked like Brexit were on a roll, but then Jo Cox was murdered and the steam went out of it all. Nigel Farage was bemoaning the fact on Monday:
Nigel Farage On Brexit: “We Had Momentum Until This Terrible Tragedy”
Other reports had everyone breathing a collective sigh of relief. Britain was going to remain in the EU. There was almost celebration in the air.
“It is stunning how quickly we have spun to the assumption that Remain is a done deal.”
But today there came yet another twist.
Stocks and sterling are sliding once again as a second poll hits showing “leave” leading massively 49% Leave vs 42% Remain…
And over the past day or two a number of people have been asking whether the Jo Cox murder was a false flag attack to bounce the British people into voting to remain.
For myself, my mind has been made up since long before the campaign started. But if I had been been sitting on the fence, I’m very far from sure that the stream of scares and threats coming from the Remain camp would have induced me to vote to remain. In fact, I can imagine that it would have had the opposite effect. They could have run a charm offensive featuring Italian cars, French blondes, Spanish footballers, German lagers, plus dancers and jugglers and street musicians. But no. Instead it’s all been very, very menacing. But then, that’s standard practice in the EU these days.
I’m just wondering what will happen if Brexit wins. Because I suspect that our europhile parliament and political class will simply refuse to do anything about it. Or will drag their feet to ensure that Britain never quite gets round to actually leaving.
Whatever happens, I’m beginning to believe that the EU is going to disintegrate anyway, and everyone will be exiting it, whether they want to or not. I spent some time today writing an essay setting out my reasoning. I’ll probably publish it sometime in the next few days.
And also, whatever happens, British politics will be bad-tempered for a long time to come. There are divisions that have opened up over the past few months which aren’t going to close any time soon. And if the vote is very close, nobody is going to take it as decisive.