Big Storms Coming

Independent 10 June 2016:

EU referendum: Poll reveals a massive 10-point swing towards Brexit

Exclusive: polling carried out for ‘The Independent’ shows that 55 per cent of UK voters intend to vote for Britain to leave the EU in the 23 June referendum

Two days later: Sunday Express 12 June 2016:

End of EU rule FINALLY in sight: Leave camp take 19-POINT lead as Britons flock to Brexit

A NEW poll has given those wishing to leave the EU a remarkable 19-POINT lead over Remain.

The Opinium Poll, commissioned by the Brexit-backing Bruges Group think tank, is further evidence that the Leave camp is gaining support and delivers the biggest margin of victory for Brexit so far, after giving voters the option of a choice of free trade agreements with the EU.

It found 52 per cent chose to leave the EU, with only 33 per cent choosing to keep the status quo.

Despite there being less than two weeks before the crucial referendum, on June 23, a further 15 per cent said they still didn’t know.

Public opinion seems to be highly volatile right now. I can’t think of a reason why there’s been this sudden surge. I can well imagine that in another week it will all have changed again. Or not. Peter Hitchens:

I think we are about to have the most serious constitutional crisis since the Abdication of King Edward VIII. I suppose we had better try to enjoy it.

If – as I think we will – we vote to leave the EU on June 23, a democratically elected Parliament, which wants to stay, will confront a force as great as itself – a national vote, equally democratic, which wants to quit. Are we about to find out what actually happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object?

We’ll certainly have a constitutional crisis if Brexit wins – and Cameron refuses to deliver on it, or the EU steps in and tells Britons to vote again.

But I think we’ll have a political crisis whatever happens. The Conservative party has been tearing itself apart over the past few months, and there are going to be casualties. Maybe a general election.

And the EU referendum was anyway always going to just be one more crisis in the larger, ongoing saga of the slowly unfolding EU political crisis. A Brexit win would encourage other member states to hold referendums too.

And there’s a gradually mounting global crisis as well. Tensions are mounting everywhere.

There are big storms coming, one after the other.

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About Frank Davis

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19 Responses to Big Storms Coming

  1. jaxthefirst says:

    I don’t believe a single one of these polls these days, simply because they all hover so conveniently around the 50% mark for the “out” vote. Over the last couple of weeks, the Big Ref has been quite a topic of conversation in my circles and I’ve so far only come up against three people who have said with certainty that they are going to vote “in,” but at least a dozen who have said that they are definitely going to vote “out.” Small numbers, I grant you, but working on the same basis as these polls do, i.e. taking a small (relatively speaking) sample, the percentage for the “out” vote seems to be overwhelming. So, when I read that the “out” vote is “only” polling around 50% of the vote, my cynic’s hat goes on and I start thinking that if the polls are “only” indicating that around 50% of people are intending to vote “out” – and people believe those figures (which they probably will, because few people are as cynical as I am) – then it isn’t going to be quite so surprising if the final result (conveniently) happens to be, say, 48% or 49% instead, is it? If, on the other hand, the polls were all saying that the “out” vote is running at around, say, 65 or 70% (which is much closer to my little sample), and then the result comes in at (oops!) 48 or 49%, then it all seems much fisher, n’est ce pas? Because, yes, I really do think that, when the chips are down as much as they are now for the EU and their hangers-on, deliberately skewing the result definitely is not off the agenda – not by a long chalk.

  2. cherie79 says:

    I am wary of the polls too, almost everyone I speak to are voting out regardless of age, a couple are undecided because of all the scare stories but no definite yes votes and the only enthusiasm is on the leave side. Perhaps a better example is the taxi driver who told me he has been asking passengers for the past few weeks and only found one yes vote and that from a man who had business interests in Europe. The opinion polls are very strange in view of all this and I can certainly see your point about keeping the 48 – 50% figures, I never thought of that.

  3. Tony says:

    These polling results are getting increasingly confusing. Jaxthefirst may well be right although I hope not.

    An organisation called Britain Elects maintains a large spreadsheet of polls. Oddly, neither of the two recent ones showing a big lead for Leave are listed:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/htmlview#gid=548761846

    Also, on the 19% lead poll:

    “Opinium Research – ‏@OpiniumResearch
    The Bruges poll, while fieldwork conducted by us, it’s not our official #EUref poll (has no political/social attitude weights) Not endorsed.”

  4. harleyrider1978 says:

    50 killed in a Smokefree Gun free zone!
    Yep the bar had no smoking indoors even though it could have been under Fla law.

  5. Paul Austin says:

    Among my collection of DVDs is the docu-drama, “Into the Storm” where the UK stood up to and ultimately defeated the Nazi jugernaut. One poignant scene was when in summer 1940, with France defeated, Lord Halifax suggested mediation by Italy to capitulate to Germanys’ demand. By May ’45 IL Duce, Count Ciano, and that ‘paper-hanging’ s.o.b where smoking a dog turd in hell.
    Appeasers, cow-towing to the demands of Brussels, won’t be tolerated by British citizens.
    To quote Winston Churchill, “Kay-be-oh” (Keep Buggering On).

  6. waltc says:

    US radio all day has been reporting a poll with 44% Remain, 43% Leave and 13% undecided. (Who TF could be undecided by now?) It also reports that the poind is taking a pounding and attributes that to Fear of Brexit. I often think polls are slanted to scare people to the polls for the side the pollsters hope will win, or make the predicted winners feel smug enough to go shopping instead. I’m not always sure how the psychology is supposed to work. (“My side is losing hugely so I might as well not bother casting a futile vote?”Or “it’s so close my vote will really count?” Or “my side is winning hugely so I can safely stay home? ” Or “my side is losing hugely but I’ll prove the polls wrong?”) in any case, I often smell rats.

    For a parallel of legislatures nullifying citizens’ votes, in NYC we voted term limits (2 only) for both the mayor and city council members not once but (they indeed made us do a do-over) twice. But the council subsequently voted to give themselves and Bloomberg a third term, though (get this) it was a one-time deal, after which it would revert to the voters’wishes (unless the council decided otherwise,of course.

  7. Frank Davis says:

    Last week I was sitting outside a pub somewhere when a conversation about the referendum started at an adjoining table, with individual people calling out their preferences. I estimated that it was about 3 to 1 in favour of Brexit, with the one or two Remainers being quite defensive.

    And last night I caught the news that English football hooligans in France for Euro2016 were chanting “We’re leaving” (in between fighting with Russian hooligans).

    However, the one person I do know well – my brother – is very firmly in favour of remaining – because he fears (dreads might be a better word) that there will be war in Europe if the EU breaks up. I would imagine that there are quite a few people who have not forgotten the war who think this way.

    Last week I attended a meeting where my local (pro-Leave) MP spoke, and took questions on the EU referendum. Judging from the questions, I’d guess that the audience were 50:50 Remain-Leave. And almost all were quite emotional. One even had to be escorted out. There’s a lot of passion out there.

    I’d guess that out in the shires where I live these days, the prevailing sentiment will be to Leave. But in the cities, it’ll probably be the other way round.

    And it’s probably the most important vote in anyone’s lifetime. So some people will be agonising over it, and maybe changing their minds on a daily basis.

    • Harleyrider1978 says:

      A war would break out because of the EU being so tyrannical and break away nations would create their own allies against the German led EU.

      • Frank Davis says:

        WW1 started when a Bosnian Serb nationalist assassinated the man who was to be the next emperor of the Austro-Hungarian empire. Whenever you have a large empire, there will be parts of it which would like to recover their autonomy. That will be as true today as it was a century ago. After all, the entire American world, north and south, started out as being parts of the Portuguese, Spanish, British, and French empires, and they all fought wars of national liberation. If the EU empire holds together, there will be wars of national liberation fought within it too.

  8. Rose says:

    The UN has failed to protect Syrians from war and hunger. Now it’s telling them to stop smoking
    13 June 2016

    “Your home may be in flames, your family enslaved, your torturers itching to pull out your fingernails – but above all you’ve got to ignore the ciggy packet in your pocket

    Bizarre, weird, unprecedented. It’s rarely you can call the UN all three. But I did get the April Fool’s Day feeling when I read about the World Health Organisation’s latest warning to Syrians: they must stop smoking. Not just cigarettes but even the nargileh, the shisha pipe, upon which generations of Arabs have puffed away in war and peace.

    But now – and it is June, not 1 April – the poor and desperate Syrian people have been told by the UN health agency that they really must take better care of their lungs.

    Has the UN no sense of shame? I don’t blame Elizabeth Hoff, WHO’s representative for Syria, for this preposterous report. There was a time, and will be again in a future peace, for such serious warnings to be issued.

    But somewhere within the UN’s clanking pistons and steam valves, her desire to save the Syrian masses from lung cancer – forget the barrel bombers, Russian missiles, car bombs, torturers and throat-cutters to which they fall victim in their tens of thousands – got spewed out of the machinery on the East River at the most inappropriate moment in history,”
    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/un-failing-syrians-war-hunger-conflict-assad-isis-stop-smoking-robert-fisk-a7079306.html

  9. Tony says:

    Another couple of good polls today, one phone and a second online. Both showing a 7 point lead for Leave. http://order-order.com/2016/06/13/__trashed-8/

    http://whatukthinks.org/eu/ seems to be a good site for polling information.

  10. smokingscot says:

    Pretty well from the time Cameron put a date on it, the Pound’s been on a gradual decline.

    From the time the polls showed the leave lot are gaining traction it’s been falling off a cliff.

    That takes some doing against the Euro, seeing as they have a policy of deliberately deflating their currency:

    http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=GBP&to=EUR&amount=1

    Maybe not such a big-a-deal against the US Dollar, which ain’t doing a whole heck of a lot since Yellen copped out of a rate hike in April:

    http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=GBP&to=USD&amount=1

    .

  11. harleyrider1978 says:

    Talk about BULLSHIT

    Special Report: Why Obama and other gun control advocates own stock in firearms makers

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gun-stocks-obama-special-report-idUSKCN0VE1TG

    Anti-cancer scientists ‘invested in tobacco industry’

    m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3…

    The New Zealand Herald

    May 30, 2016 – The tobacco investment has come as a shock to many researchers, … their pensions are invested in tobacco company shares – especially those …

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      The Vetting – Holder 1995: We Must ‘Brainwash’ People on Guns like we did on cigarettes

      Breitbart.com has uncovered video from 1995 of then-U.S. Attorney Eric Holder announcing a public campaign to “really brainwash people into thinking about guns in a vastly different way.”
      Holder was addressing the Woman’s National Democratic Club. In his remarks, broadcast by CSPAN 2, he explained that he intended to use anti-smoking campaigns as his model to “change the hearts and minds of people in Washington, DC” about guns.
      http://www.breitbart.com/Breit

      “What we need to do is change the way in which people think about guns, especially young people, and make it something that’s not cool, that it’s not acceptable, it’s not hip to carry a gun anymore, in the way in which we changed our attitudes about cigarettes.”

      Holder added that he had asked advertising agencies in the nation’s capital to assist by making anti-gun ads rather than commercials “that make me buy things that I don’t really need.” He had also approached local newspapers and television stations, he said, asking them to devote prime space and time, respectively, to his anti-gun campaign.

      Local political leaders and celebrities, Holder said, including Mayor Marion Barry and Jesse Jackson, had been asked to help. In addition, he reported, he had asked the local school board to make the anti-gun message a part of “every day, every school, and every level.”

      Despite strict gun control efforts, Washington, DC was and remains one of the nation’s most dangerous cities for gun violence, though crime has abated somewhat since the 1990s.

      Holder went on to become Deputy Attorney General in the Clinton administration, and currently serves as Attorney General in the Obama Administration.

      The video of Holder’s remarks was uncovered by Breitbart.com contributor Charles C. Johnson.

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