My EU Referendum Cynicism

Express:

Government assumed that British people would vote to remain in EU

DOWNING Street is panicking over the EU referendum because the government’s assumptions that voters would overwhelmingly back the remain side have been proven completely wrong, it has been revealed.

Tory MP Steve Baker, the joint chairman of Conservatives for Britain, told a Brexit conference that a senior minister told him this week that they had planned for having a 20 to 30 point lead in favour of staying in the EU at this stage.

Instead the government and pro-EU campaigners are behind in one poll by nine points and in the Daily Express’ online poll are facing 92 per cent in favour of a Brexit.

Mr Baker told the Daily Express: “I was having a drink with a senior minister last night and he told me that the expectation [in Downing Street] was that at this stage they [David Cameron’s pro-EU campaign] would be 20 to 30 points ahead.

I must say that I feel pretty damn cynical about this EU referendum. I’m not a bit surprised if more and more Britons want to leave the EU, given the ghastly mess it’s turned into, with armies of rapists on the loose. But I don’t think what Britons might think is of any interest to the governing British political class, who are almost all on board for the EU “project”. And they’ll get their way, whatever anyone else thinks. And if the referendum looks like it won’t go the way they want, they’ll either:

  1. Not have a referendum, despite having promised one.
  2. Defer any referendum for as long as possible.
  3. Fix the result of the referendum.
  4. Ignore the result if the ‘wrong’ answer is given.
  5. Make people vote again until they give the ‘right’ answer (the EU’s own approach).
  6. Delay and procrastinate about acting to leave the EU.
  7. Scare the living daylights out of people to ensure they vote to stay in.
  8. Start a war.

Anyway, my prediction is that in 5 years time, Britain will still be inside the EU, even if 95% of Britons want to leave it, because what ordinary Britons might want doesn’t matter a toss to the European political class and its British members.

After all, it’s not as if we’re living in a parliamentary democracy, is it?

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About Frank Davis

smoker
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42 Responses to My EU Referendum Cynicism

  1. harleyrider1978 says:

    Personally I don’t think the EU will even exist in 5 years. The world wide recession/depression should finite it within 3 years if not sooner.

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      Oxygen users safety warning here with Butane lighters and child safety covers on the strikers
      https://harleyridersblog.wordpress.com/
      Well Frank I made me a blog on wordpress just to see what was involved…….

      • harleyrider1978 says:

        Its pretty sad I had to approve my own comment………..

      • Good luck with your blog – enjoy! Please get a follow button there – you’ll find it in “Appearance” and “Widgets” I think – and also some share buttons!

        • harleyrider1978 says:

          I don’t know if I can keep a blog run going. Im not Frank or Mike or well even scholarly.

          I just wanted to see what was involved,its a lot and Frank hats off to you it is work.

        • It gets easier as you go along. And the share buttons are good – I just shared your latest “Endgame” post. You often comment on other people’s posts and websites and I read those too. But if you put your thoughts in one place – I see that as a VERY good thing!

  2. jaxthefirst says:

    I really hope you’re right, Harl, but I rather suspect that it’ll still be around – even if it’s clinging on just by its fingernails. This lot aren’t going to go without putting up one hell of a struggle. Doing the honourable thing and just saying: “OK, you’re all absolutely right. We’ve made an absolute mess of things. We’ll just hang up our hats and go quietly” just isn’t their style.

    Like you, Frank, I keep wondering what trickery our politicians are going to pull out of the hat to ensure that we stay in. My money’s on 7, 5 or 3 as the most likely scenarios, in that order. Not that the others are out of the question, of course. Maybe we should start running a book on it – might as well make a bit of cash out of the whole sorry mess! Anyone game for odds of 10:1 on No 1?? :)

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      Jax I just don’t see the EURO existing. Without the euro there is no EU.

    • Rose says:

      Jax, my bet is on –

      8.Start a war/ declare a major emergency

      and as a result

      2.Defer any referendum for as long as possible.

      • nisakiman says:

        I’d go along with you, I think, Rose. It might even be enough to ramp up the ‘terrorism’ rhetoric to delay any referendum indefinitely, or at least until they can propagandise the great unwashed into believing that leaving the EU would have a similar effect to being around tobacco smoke; that is to say, it would have lethal consequences.

  3. harleyrider1978 says:

    I think we will see the EUturns coming as everyone drops the euro in place of national currencies again so they can devalue them in a world gone economically insane.

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      How long can Germany keep paying for the other nations losses literally. France is financially strapped,UK is running 2trillion pounds of debt. I mean everybodys gone broke and the southern euro countries are dragging down everyone else with them. The IMF and world bank both have said they don have the money to do any more bailouts for anyone. Hows the EU central so called bank suppose to fix it…………I think Germany ended up having to use the dueche mark to back the EURO in a court case not long ago.

      Merkels politically dead meat and Brussels from what Ive seen isn’t loved by anyone except the Europhiles/socialists

  4. waltc says:

    A few days late but: thanks for promoting my book Frank, and prog for posting its website. For those who asked, it’s already got a catalog page at Amazon UK — and in every other country where Amazon has tentacles, which is actually everywhere. There’s a free excerpt at manhattanroulette.com and if you feel like it, you can “like” its fb page
    https://www.facebook.com/ManhattanRouletteNovel/
    I will now shut up about it (except to add that within its pages, there’s a lot of smoking and bitching about bans. )

    • Ross M says:

      I’m glad too for the – action and reaction – a few posts back, enjoyed immensely what I read, and admired the presentation. Thanks to you, and all who shared, for that!

      I’m an avid nightly reader, but my budget limits me to library borrowing…

      Literary, capable, modern & post-modern, speculative, noir, sci-fi, crime, contemporary.
      Translations, all sorts. There’s a certain sense of quality… and of prospective enjoyment.
      Not limited to that. And sometimes I pick up duds. This doesn’t seem like one…

      So, impressed in advance, I’ve made an online suggestion for purchase at my local library;- I’d encourage all to do the same, or similar – and to get an online presence with your library if not already on!

      Very handy to search and reserve, check due dates, even establish a reading history.
      And libraries in large cities have many branches, so may well make bulk purchases.
      And, you can maybe recommend new purchases… help share those ideas out there!

      Auckland Libraries seem to purchase quite a few new books, so, Walt;- I hope they will from your publishers too;- the form will either put me first in the queue to borrow (perhaps after ‘library staff assessment’, a privileged read) – or contact me to let me know if they didn’t purchase it… I should think they might; – I’ll argue the toss if not!

      I’ve noticed quite a few obviously self-published books leaking into the New Books section, the binding and lack of specs gives them away, often with many glaring typos.

      Which I’m pretty sure yours won’t have… :=})

      Best wishes, bonne chance, bon courage!

      • Ross M says:

        Well I had a reply, after filling (copy/paste) details into the form…

        8:39 PM (2 hours ago)

        Thank you for your suggestion.
        If not ordered, a library staff member will contact you.

        Item title: MANHATTAN ROULETTE
        Author: Walt Cody
        Publisher: Cheshire House Books
        Publication date: February 15, 2016
        ISBN: 978-09675073-78
        Do you wish to request this item?: Yes
        Pickup location: Central City
        Level: Adult
        Format: Book (Fiction)
        Other format:
        Additional information: Please see http://www.manhattanroulette.com/index.html – and browse the various tabs for excerpts, author Q&A, etc. NB that the “The Specs” page contains an ISBN number for a trade paperback as well as a hard-cover;- the ISBN I gave above is for the latter. The former would obviously be more cost effective… the distributors are listed there too, but the ‘Contact’ page links to the publisher. I came across this via a blog and enjoyed the excerpts, as well as the authors blog contributions. As good as many, and better than quite a few, I think, in the Library collection in this genre so far. Thanks for considering it!
        First name: Ross
        Last name: M […]
        Library card number:
        Email address:
        Phone number:

    • Barry Homan says:

      Okay, I’ll add something. Not to detract from Walt’s achievement, I am wishing him and his book lots of success. I guess this is the best time to mention a story of my own, also in the mystery/crime genre. It’s only 8 pages, and it’s a quick read.

      It revolves around a famous gal from popular literature. The story just hit me as an inspiration about a year ago. I invite Walt and all of you to have a look, some have rated it very highly! Go to Facebook and search under:

      Fayne and Dreihorst

      It concerns two private-eyes. Simply join the group, the story is on the top entry. That’s all, there will be no updates or current news. All comments are welcome. Walt could even give his own critical assessment.

      Thanks for your interest. And yes, there’s smoking in it.

    • Frank Davis says:

      The excerpt certainly reads very well. I’m not a great reader of fiction – apart from reading the entire Patrick O’Brian Master and Commander series about 10 years ago – , but I may need to make an exception here. I’m hoping it’s a bit like Mickey Spillane or Raymond Chandler. Or maybe Joseph Wambaugh…

  5. Smoking Lamp says:

    Sounds like the tactics they envision using to stay in the EU mirror those used to dictate smoking bans. I guess that shouldn’t be a surprise since it’s the same totalitarians being both measures.

  6. prog says:

    QT was broadcast from Wales last night. Nigel Farage went down very well, attracting applause almost every time he commented. Either the BBC didn’t vet the audience enough or, more likely, the usual hackneyed comments from the lefties (including an unfunny ‘right on’ comedian) are starting to irritate the public. Contrary to what many of the pro EU faction claim, the referendum is basically about immigration. Farage is right by saying we need a points system. Indeed, there wouldn’t have been a referendum at all if it wasn’t for UKIP.

  7. petesquiz says:

    I think you’re absolutely right, but what I reckon will happen is that they’ll use the scare tactics to try and persuade us to stay in.

    The referendum will go ahead because whatever happens Cameron will resign as Prime Minister which was his plan all along.

    If we vote to stay in he’ll say to his backbenchers, “I told you so!” and walk off into the sunset (and a lucrative job elsewhere – as Tony Blair did!).

    If we vote to leave he’ll say, “I can’t possibly lead a government leaving the EU” and walk off into the sunset and a lucrative job elsewhere! The new leader can then use 4, 5 or 6 saying that they never wanted a referendum/ would have asked a different question/ generally prevaricate!

    As you rightly surmise, we won’t be leaving the EU any time soon whatever the British public think!

  8. Roobeedoo2 says:

    OT but apparently it’s our neanderthal DNA that makes us crave nicotine:

    http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2016-02/vu-ndh020216.php

    • Tony says:

      I believe tobacco is native solely to the Americas (and possibly Australia too) and no Neanderthal remains have ever been found on either continent. The official story is that tobacco only arrived in Europe/ Asia /Africa at the end of the 15th century. Neanderthals had been extinct for 30,000 years or so by that time.

      Of course pressing the anti-smoking buttons is what gave the researchers publicity and will ensure future funding for them. It also suits the eugenic, public health, agenda because it supports their contention that smokers are sub-human, Neanderthal even, and so can be eliminated from the new master race by selective breeding.

      • harleyrider1978 says:

        Your totally right its nothing but a eugenics paper.

      • Don’t you think we’ve always smoked? Neanderthal or not. Tobacco isn’t the only thing humans smoke – each continent has it’s own plant material that has been smoked. How did we learn to do it? Well, I think we found some things chucked on our cave/leanto home fires just felt good when we inhaled deeply. Smoking is about pleasure. In Africa, the Colonial rulers tried to stamp out Dagga, a maruanja that grows everywhere and was the usual smoke for the indigenous peoples for thousands of years – maybe hundreds of thousands of years, seeing that’s where we all come from! Neanderthal genes? Hah. My foot!

      • Rose says:

        I believe tobacco is native solely to the Americas (and possibly Australia too)

        Tony, not only in Australia but in Africa too.

        Nicotiana africana Merxm.: a recently discovered species
        1982

        “The recent discovery of Nicotiana africana Merxm. extended the known natural distribution of the genus to another continent and generated considerable interest in this geographically isolated species.”

        The distribution of heterochromatin and the karyotype show similarities with species of the Australian section of the genus, Suaveolentes, to which N. africana is related, and also to some American species.
        http://jhered.oxfordjournals.org/content/73/2/115.abstract

        The Only African Wild Tobacco, Nicotiana africana: Alkaloid Content and the Effect of Herbivory
        2014

        “This study examined herbivore-induced defenses in the nornicotine-rich African tobacco N. africana, the only Nicotiana species indigenous to Africa.”
        http: //journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0102661

        “Nicotiana africana is a species of plant in the Solanaceae family. It is endemic to Namibia. Its natural habitats are subtropical or tropical dry shrubland and rocky areas.”

        wikipedia

        Why this matters is that this might be the remains of an old agricultural crop and a possible rational explanation of a mystery that’s been baffling scientists and historians for decades.

        Rameses II and the tobacco beetle

        Introduction
        “The recent publication of an extensive review of Egyptian trade and industry (Nicholson & Shaw 2000) revives a biogeographic conundrum, which should have been laid to rest over a decade ago.
        In her chapter on mummification, Rosalie David (2000) refers to the presence of Nicotiana sp. and Anthemideae [sic] in the abdominal cavity of Rameses II, as plant substances utilized in the preservation process by the ancient Egyptians.

        Both were discovered during the re-examination of his mummy in Paris in 1976, the former as comminuted fragments of leaf and the latter as massive amounts of pollen ([is greater than] 500,000 grains/cc) (Layer-Lescot 1985; Leroi-Gourhan 1985).”

        “The tobacco might have been quietly forgotten — David (1992) does not mention it in her paper reviewing plant and plant products used in mummification — but for additional evidence obtained from both radioimmunoassay and gas chromatography by Balabanova and others on samples from mummies in the Munich Museum (Balabanova et al. 1992).

        These showed the presence of nicotine, and its metabolized derivative cotinine, in hair, soft tissue and bone, and this was initially interpreted as evidence for the use of tobacco during the lives of the individuals sampled, not necessarily by direct use in smoking, for which there is no pictorial or epigraphic evidence, but perhaps by its use in fumigation (Balabanova et al. 1993).

        (These authors also note that Alfieri (1931) had found `coleoptera of tabac’ in the tomb of Tutankhamun, and whilst he makes nothing of this, they go on to suggest, `In the first clays after burial, the insects devoured the tobacco leaves then died.’!) Steffan (1982) had also found the `tobacco beetle’, Lasioderma serricorne L. (Coleoptera, Anobiidae) in the mummy of Rameses II, a point not lost on Balabanova et al. (1993).”

        “Radioimmunoassay showed that nicotine was generally distributed through the body, and it is probable that this reflects the application of tobacco water as an insecticide during conservation in the 19th century.”
        http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/homes/rgroves/panagiotakopulupub4.pdf

        Nicotine and Cocaine Found in Egyptian Mummies

        “Far from being solved, the mystery that began in Egypt was spreading. Balabanova was suggesting that an unknown type of tobacco had grown in Europe, Africa and Asia thousands of years ago. But every schoolchild knows that tobacco was discovered in the New World. She was asking for a substantial slice of botany and history to be completely rewritten.
        Would anyone back her up?”
        http: //www.druglibrary.org/schaffer/Misc/mummies.htm

        Sometimes the simplest explanations are the best.

  9. Budvar says:

    I think events will overtake circumstances anyway. When the €70 trillion (that’s Trillion with a T) derivatives time bomb blows up leaving Deutche bank with it’s arse in the breeze, it’ll take Europe along with it…

  10. The Blocked Dwarf says:

    OT http://www.shropshirestar.com/news/2016/02/08/poll-has-the-smoking-ban-in-public-places-been-a-good-thing/

    The poll Frank linked tot he other day has now swung around to 67% think ‘NO-the smoking ban wasn’t a good idea’,

    :) that’s just brightened my lunchtime.

  11. prog says:

    OT. Just dug up this little gem (also posted at DP’s in reply to MJM)

    Antiseptic Properties of Tobacco.

    Like many other narcotic poisons, nicotine has certain properties which give it definite value in medicine when employed in the proper way and by competent agents. Thus poultices of fresh tobacco leaves have long been employed to ‘give relief in cases of gout, neuralgia, and rheumatic pains. A concentrated solution of the fresh leaves is said to be good for dandruff, ringworm, etc.

    Tobacco is also employed as a remedy for skin diseases of cattle, and is commonly used to destroy parasites in vineyards and orchards. Recent investigations, showing its high value as an antiseptic agent. The researches of Tassinari and Molisch have now demonstrated the actual anti-septic value of tobacco with regard both to vertebrates and to inferior creatures.Tobacco smoke serves to retard or arrest the development of certain pathological bacteria. Amoeba ciliated infusoria, etc., soon die in the tiny glass cage in which they are placed for study under the microscope, if a single puff of tobacco ,smoke be injected therein. It seems to act upon them, as an anaesthetic ,exactly “as do the vapours of ether and choloroform. This bactericidal and antiseptic action has not yet been fully elucidated, but the Italian physiologist, Cavarallo, has proved, that smoking not only increases the flow of saliva (which probably explains the uneasiness of smokers after eating until they are able to indulge in pipe or cigar) but also sterilises it .He also declares that tobacco is never the cause of oral inflammation and the epithelial tumours of mouth and tongue, though it may be the determining agent which makes such causes, which are many and complex in character, active.

    When these statements of Cavarallo were published they roused much controversy, being bitterly at| tacked by the enemies of tobacco, though they were supported by a series of clinical experiments. But conclusions, however, have just been brilliantly confirmed by the work of Professor Wencke, of the Imperial Institute of Berlin, who made many experiments during the recent cholera epidemic at Hamburg. Professor Wencke was struck by the fact that the workers in the cigar factories of that city were not attacked by the scourge, even when living in surroundings similar or identical with those of its victims. On making investigation he found that the water employed in one of these factories contained considerable numbers of sceptic vibrions, yet one of these were found alive on the finished cigars. This led him to definite experiments. Some of the tobacco leaves were moistened with water containing the bacilli of cholera in the number of 1,500.000,000 to the cubic centimeter. At the.end of 24 hours these were all found to be dead. A second experiment was made with saliva, containing choleragerms, placed on a glass plate, and exposed for five minutes to tobacco smoke, which completely sterilised it. Finally, it was found that a fumigation of from 25 to 30 seconds with tobacco smoke sufficed to disinfect the dejecta of patients seriously affected by attacks of cholera. It is believed that other harm fulmicrobes will be shown by future experiments to be similarly destroyed.

    http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/de

    • Some French Bloke says:

      Then it would at last become scientifically legitimate for the ANTZ to use their favorite soundbite (“smoking kills”) wherever they see fit, provided tobacco products packages only bear pictures of dead Amoeba ciliated infusoria, not diseased human organs.

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