Could the EU Fall Apart Completely?

The BBC seems to be waking up a bit:

Could the EU fall apart completely?

…In my years as the BBC’s Europe editor, from 2005 to 2009, there was plenty of debate about the future of the European Union, but I never took seriously the idea that it might one day cease to exist. That no longer seems so fanciful.

The founding father of the European Union, Jean Monnet, used to say: “Europe will be forged in crises, and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those crises.”

The equation these days rather points towards subtraction, and the crisis could drive Mr Monet’s project backwards.

How these traumas are treated over the next few years will define what the EU becomes.

It is just possible it will be on a terminal path to decay and disintegration.

You may cheer, or you may mourn, but you cannot argue that it would be anything other than hugely consequential for the whole continent.

The strains that threaten to tear the EU apart can be summed up by the three nations that stand for different facets of the challenge – Greece, the UK and Ukraine.

Actually, I don’t think the UK is really part of this crisis. What’s going to happen in the UK is that, over the next year or so, Britons will be subjected to the most colossal propaganda campaign in their history, telling them that if they vote to leave the EU, they’ll face a future of total isolation and penury, in which all the trees in England will die, and all the birds fall out of the sky. And so they will vote to stay in the EU, probably by a margin of 60% against 40%. And if a majority of Britons should by some miracle vote against it, they’ll just be asked to vote again, just like the Irish were when they gave the ‘wrong’ answer.

The Greek crisis seems to me to be more symbolic than anything. Grexit will mean losing the European country in which democracy and philosophy and art first flourished, long before anywhere else. It’ll be a political disaster for the EU ‘project’, as the gradually expanding EU superstate at last loses one of its members, thereby opening up the possibility that others might follow.

Actually, it’s a lot worse than that, according to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph:

Does anybody dispute that the ECB – via the Bank of Greece – is actively inciting a bank run in a country where it is also the banking regulator by issuing this report on Wednesday?

It warned of an “uncontrollable crisis” if there is no creditor deal, followed by soaring inflation, “an exponential rise in unemployment”, and a “collapse of all that the Greek economy has achieved over the years of its EU, and especially its euro area, membership”.

The guardian of financial stability is consciously and deliberately accelerating a financial crisis in an EMU member state – with possible risks of pan-EMU and broader global contagion – as a negotiating tactic to force Greece to the table.

How can the EU hold together when it treats member states like this?

The Ukraine crisis seems to me to be the most dangerous crisis, because it’s where the expansionist EU ’empire’ has finally reached it natural limit, in the form of Russia. And it’s here that fighting has unsurprisingly broken out (all of which is blamed, of course, on Russian ‘expansionism’).

For myself, I abruptly swung from being pro-EU to anti-EU when the EU parliament voted for a Europe-wide smoking ban, and thus for the denormalisation and exclusion of a third of its own citizens. Seriously, I don’t think any polity can survive such an imbecilic act.

And I think the deepest crisis in Europe is not to be found in the UK or Greece or Ukraine ‘crises’, but in the growing disconnect between the peoples of Europe and the European political class. In my own case, the disconnect is between me and a UK political class (Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem, they’re all the same) who seem to think that there are no adverse political consequences in casually and thoughtlessly excluding and denormalising and overtaxing the 20% of their own countrymen and women who happen to smoke cigarettes. The war on smokers (and on all other ‘non-ideal’ people) is shattering the cohesion of society. As also is mass immigration, and any number of other things.

What I fear is not the mere disintegration of the EU, but the disintegration of civil society, as everyone is turned against everyone else in a kind of pan-European (and in fact global) civil war. Of course the EU ‘project’ of binding all the peoples of Europe into ‘ever closer union’ will founder (and be rapidly forgotten) in the ensuing turmoil and confusion as people become ever more divided, and neighbour fights with neighbour, and friend with friend.

Unthinkable? Mi amiga perdida en España once explained to me that the Spanish civil war did not divide one part of Spain from another: it instead divided communities and friends and families everywhere in Spain. And that is now my own experience.

About Frank Davis

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8 Responses to Could the EU Fall Apart Completely?

    • Frank Davis says:

      George Will: If Greece so cherishes its sovereignty that it bristles at conditions imposed by creditors, why is it in the E.U., the perverse point of which is to “pool” nations’ sovereignties in order to dilute national consciousness?

      The great terror is that of separate national identities. In fact of any sort of separate identity at all. The constant attempt is made to remove the differences between people, to erase the differences (or ‘inequalities’) between men and women, black and white, rich and poor, healthy and sick, with the belief that once all differences have been eradicated, everyone will always agree about everything, and conflict will become impossible. But since this attempt entails doing violence to everybody in the process of trying to make them all the same, the outcome is just as bad, if not worse.

      It seems to be widely believed in Europe that WW1 and WW2 arose because the French and German and British (and other) peoples all saw themselves as different from one another, and it was this difference that led them into conflict, and the wars wouldn’t have happened if they’d all regarded themselves just as Europeans, and one people sharing a single continent. But this account of the cause of war fails to explain why civil wars erupt between people who are already ‘all the same people’. There have been civil wars fought in Britain, USA, Spain, and any number of other countries. These were wars fought between people who were all the same colour, spoke the same language, worshipped in the same churches, ate the same food, lived in the same houses. Also, if wars break out between people who are ‘different’ from each other, when was the last time that a pitched battle was fought between men and women?

      I don’t think that WW1 and WW2 started because there were separate nations of French, German, and English people. I think they started because at that time these were rival empires (or would-be empires) who were in competition all over the world, and eventually also in the Europe that was their shared springboard. All those empires are now defunct, and with them has vanished the possibility of conflict between them. Instead, as the EU metamorphoses into an expansive new empire, peopled by ‘Europeans’, we face the new possibility of war with the ‘non-Europeans’ beyond the borders of the EU, and civil war within the EU between the new European aristocracy (Barroso et al) and the increasingly downtrodden, over-regulated, ignored common people of Europe (e.g. its 160 million smokers).

  1. Jim says:

    Thats an interesting point, the civil war one. It occurs to me that could sort of happen here in the UK, if we by some miracle voted to leave the EU (like you I suspect the barrage of propaganda to stay in with result in a hefty IN vote). Lets say we voted 52 to 48 to leave. I guarantee that the 48% would include pretty much all the people in positions of power – government, civil service, local government, quangos, media and Third sector. And I suspect they would do everything to stop the democratic choice being enacted. And I can see how it could turn the entire nation into two camps, not geographically separated, but living side by side in the same streets. Not a happy scenario at all.

  2. DICK R says:

    Think of the sheer undiluted pleasure of hanging the Eurotraitors from the lampposts!

  3. harleyrider1978 says:

    This Is Harley went to doc Friday said I should be back up to normal activities in 2-3 weeks.He got real upset when I said I was smoking a half pack a day during my down time so he said he is keeping me on Plavix forever. All my tests were excellent imaging was perfect too. In fact I had hardly any buildup at all. It had to be the Biaxin caused 2 small clots by my heart. They got those dissolved fairly quickly and put in an emergency stint and then Centennial Hospital put in another small one and then released me the next day. I was doing great for about 6 days after release and then out of the blue I had a bad case of panic attacks hit me not wanting to be left alone and all that stuff. Still a bit panicky but like bother said in about 2 months I should be feelng 20 years younger just like the others we know who went thru it. Just the massive amount of blood thinnners makes ya kinda dizzy after taking them the normal routine is 3 weeks 15mg of zarelto 2 times a day and then 20mg at dinner for 9 weeks. Then your still taking 73mg of Plavix with all that each day and Lipitor 80mg. That’s a load. Then you need potassium chloride supplement to cover the zarellto side effects. Mine was about the lowest dose on the potassium.

    Anyway Doc said my chest muscles will take awhile to heal there already better but if ya pull a t shirt on look out OUCH!

    Having normal bowel movements yea! but it seems everyone coming out of the hospital has chest congestion issues and sent home taikng musinex and the like. Then everyone who came to see me seems to all have some stomach/bronchial crud going on and they cant get rid of it. Even my 75 year old mom.

    • beobrigitte says:

      I was doing great for about 6 days after release and then out of the blue I had a bad case of panic attacks hit me not wanting to be left alone and all that stuff.

      Ok, you got the jitters a few days earlier – it should go away in a couple of days! Back in the 70s I always kept a close eye on the heart attacks between the 9th and 12th day after. They gave me no chance to do otherwise.

      Get well soon!

  4. John Watson says:

    “And I suspect they would do everything to stop the democratic choice being enacted. And I can see how it could turn the entire nation into two camps, not geographically separated, but living side by side in the same streets. Not a happy scenario at all”

    Which is the causus belli of every civil war ever fought, Wherever the official status quo is challenged there is civil unrest, where ever there is inequality be it by race, religion or taxation there will be civil unrest.

    The English civil war was a war fought over taxation and abuse of power by the reigning monarch, and today the Parliamentarians are as bad if not worse than King Charles I, >To a degree both the French and American revolutions against their legitimate governments ( yes I know America considers it to be a war of independence, that is of course the privilege of the winning side but by definition was still a rebellion or civil war) were for similar reasons.

    Could there be a civil war in the UK? I don’t know, I hope not, I do know that where there is over taxation, where non governmental institutions like the EU and the UN whose governing bodies are not elected by the people of Sovereign Nations interfere in the daily life of Sovereign Nations, where NGO’s thinly camouflaged as charities have too much influence in government it creates civil unrest and that increases the chances of a civil war.

  5. harleyrider1978 says:

    Thanks Mike I really need a rooting section Ive even had panic attacks and god forbid even crying spells…………From the hospital trauma care they did to me. VA veterans hotline for help line with therapists told me 90% of their calls deal directly from post trauma unit PTSD symptons. I had em hit me 6 days after I was let out. Weird your like a total emotional wreck not wanting to be alone or even go outside the house. Then Dizzy as I hadn’t been getting up and walking around like I shoulda been. So yesterday I started walking around the house doing about 20 laps around the dining and kitchen area which would be about a 1/3 mile walk.

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