Surprise Exit Poll

Election news tonight is dominated by a surprise exit poll predicting an increase in the number of Conservative MPs, and a drop in Labour and Lib Dem MPs.

David Cameron was on track to secure an astonishing electoral triumph according to a shock exit poll which predicted that the Conservatives would win 316 seats – up nine on 2010 – with Labour plummeting to 239 seats, down 18.

If the poll forecasts were borne out in the final Westminster tally, it would leave Cameron within touching distance of an overall Commons majority without the need for the support of the Liberal Democrats.

The poll predicted a near wipeout for Labour in Scotland, with 58 seats out of 59 for the Scottish National party and the Liberal Democrats collapsing to 10.

That would leave Cameron hardly needing to wait to see whether the Lib Dems would support the Tories in a second coalition.

However, the poll is being questioned, largely because it’s out of line with all the ones leading up to the election.

UKIP is doing well in early returns in the north of England, coming second and pushing Conservatives into third place, with Lib Dems losing their deposit.

There’s dispute about how Nigel Farage is doing in Thanet South. A whole bunch of people are saying he hasn’t won, but UKIP MEP Paul Nuttall insists that he has won, and better than expected. That result won’t be given until sometime around 7 am BST.

I’m not planning to stay up late or anything. I’ll catch up with events in the morning.

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About Frank Davis

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36 Responses to Surprise Exit Poll

  1. Nice to have an update! :)

    I was at one of Philly’s smokin’ pubs this evening (Where I met 3 smokin’ Irish-American brothers who were absolutely thrilled to hear that people were fighting the Antis!) and the early eve TV news didn’t have anything exciting going on.

    – MJM

  2. harleyrider1978 says:

    Either way it sounds good. If Cameron doesn’t have labor to deal with who knows,you might see a real conservative come out…………we shall see

  3. harleyrider1978 says:

    @UKELECTIONS2015
    England vote share change since 2010 after 21 of 533

    ‪#‎UKIP‬ +11.5
    ‪#‎Greens‬ +3.7
    ‪#‎Labour‬ +2.3
    ‪#‎Conservative‬ +1.7
    ‪#‎TUSC‬ +0.1
    ‪#‎LibDems‬ -14.8

    https://twitter.com/UKELECTIONS20…/status/596490608144941056

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      Via Dave Atherton

      • harleyrider1978 says:

        Retweeted Gawain Towler (@GawainTowler):

        “Nigel Farage’s party has cemented its power base in the North East by taking second place in most seats” – So says the Chronicle

        • harleyrider1978 says:

          David Atherton

          4 hrs · Twitter ·

          .

          Retweeted Jonathan Arnott MEP (@JonathanArnott):

          Now @bbcnickrobinson admits live on the BBC: “UKIP are the real success story” in the North East of England. Couldn’t agree more! ‪#‎GE2015

  4. waltc says:

    This site offers live up to the minute results

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/may/07/live-uk-election-results-in-full

    As of now (1AM+ New York) UKIP has only one seat, but 11.9% of the vote, with over 2.5 million individual votes which puts them in third place for popular votes. Not sure why that nonetheless (Christ, I hate autocorrect which turned nonetheless into ninth else’s, the illiterate bastard!) nonetheless leaves them with only one seat. Perhaps tomorrow someone will explain.

    • beobrigitte says:

      3,861,392 million votes exactly, which is 12.7% of all votes.

      How the system works? I no longer know; I thought I had it sussed. Never mind.

      I was hoping Farage would win Thanet South – he came second. Nevertheless,
      http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/nigel-farage-quits-as-ukip-leader–but-leaves-door-open-for-return-10235675.html

      I wish he hadn’t quit. People could RELATE to him.

      As for the Lib Dems: 2,389,454 million votes, which is 7.8% of all votes – they still have 8 seats….

      I admit, I would have loved Clegg being seen off! He was the guy who decided that the smoking ban and the death penalty (lumping both together!) were not up for discussion in 2010.
      Didn’t Clegg ‘promise’ to abolish university tuition fees? What happened? They ROSE in the last 5 years…
      Result:
      http://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/mar/27/university-students-sex-work-living-costs-tuition-fee-debts

      Many students are secretly turning to sex work to fund basic living costs while at university, a study has found.

      Research by Swansea University shows one in 20 students has worked in the sex industry while studying for a degree, and men are more likely to do so than women.

      Students are involved in everything from prostitution and escorting to stripping and internet work, the Student Sex Work Project report found.

      I’m sure that many men have no objections; the question is would they like to meet their daughters when visiting a sex club?

      The researchers have called on universities to do more to support those involved, which could be as many as tens of thousands of UK students.

      I do wonder what EXACTLY is meant by universities to do more to support those involved? Arrange cheap bus fare to and fro?

      The Guardian’s ‘solution’:
      “And we have to keep in mind that not all students engaged in the industry are safe or feel safe. It is vital now that universities arm themselves with knowledge to better understand student sex work issues and that university services are able to support students where support is needed.”

      Thanks, for the laugh. I know a MUCH better solution to keep youngsters away from the sex trade: BY NOT SIGNING UP FOR UNIVERSITY COURSES! Let’s face it, degrees are useless nowadays; plumbers earn more and start their work life without debts.

    • Frank Davis says:

      With the first-past-the-post system, in principle 49% of the country could vote for one party, and 51% for the other, with the first party getting no MPs at all.

      On the plus side, it tends to make for a fairly stable political settlement, with it being difficult to unseat sitting representatives.

      • Ed says:

        I think Franklin put it better when he said ” Democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what’s for dinner. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote” :)

  5. harleyrider1978 says:

    Tobacco Advertising Law and TradeMark Infringement. Does *your* product conform to the law? I am looking at you SNAP, Gushers, SpaceJam, etc…. Not for nothing, but these are the regs that ecigs will also have to follow once the deeming rule is finalized in June.

    Manufacturers, Distributors, and Retailers of tobacco products MUST:

    • Not market, distribute, license, or sell any item (other than cigarettes or
    smokeless tobacco or roll-your-own paper) or service that bears the brand
    name (alone or in conjunction with any other word), logo, symbol, motto,
    selling message, recognizable color or pattern of colors, or any other indicia of product identification identical to or similar to, or identifiable with, those used for any brand of cigarettes or smokeless tobacco. 21 C.F.R. 1140.34(a). This provision only applies to manufacturers and certain distributors. [YOU CAN’T MARKET YOUR PRODUCT AFTER A NON-TOBACCO PRODUCT – NO LOOKALIKES, NO SIMILAR LOGO’s, NOR EVEN SIMILAR FONTS AND COLORS]
    • Not offer any gift or item (other than cigarettes or smokeless tobacco) to any person purchasing cigarettes or smokeless tobacco in consideration of the purchase of the cigarettes or smokeless tobacco product or to any person in consideration of furnishing evidence, such as credits, proofs-of-purchase, or coupons, of such a purchase. 21 C.F.R. 1140.34(b). [NO GIVAWAYS]
    • Not sponsor any athletic, musical, artistic, or other social or cultural event, or any entry or team in any event, in the brand name, logo, symbol, motto, selling message, recognizable color or pattern of colors, or any other indicia of product identification, identical or similar to, or identifiable with, those used for any brand of cigarettes or smokeless tobacco. 21 C.F.R. 1140.34(c). [NO MIMIC’d ADVERTISING OF EXISTING NON-TOBACCO LOGO’s]
    • Notify FDA 30 days prior to the dissemination of advertising or labeling for cigarettes or smokeless tobacco in a medium not listed in 21 C.F.R.
    1140.30(a)(1). 21 C.F.R. 1140.30(a)(2). The notice must describe the
    medium and discuss the extent to which the advertising or labeling may be
    seen by persons younger than 18 years of age.

    ** It is also unlawful to advertise cigarettes or smokeless tobacco on any medium of electronic communications subject to the jurisdiction of the Federal Communications Commission.[FCC] **
    (Doesn’t FCC now regulate the internet? Would this be applicable?)

    “FDA is concerned that tobacco companies may use social media sites such as Facebook and MySpace to promote their products because these sites are popular among and easily accessible to the youth population.31 Although some websites require age-verifiable personal information, others do not require age verification or inconsistently verify the age of their users.”

    http://www.fda.gov/…/GuidanceComplianceRegula…/UCM227882.pdf

  6. This is starting to remind me of Jon Stewart’s show on our own UKIP-type four years ago: Ron Paul — the Libertarian Republican.

    The staunchly antismoking NY Times, our supposed “Paper Of Record” here in the States that managed to totally ignore by fifty or so attempts to grace its letters column, has now released its definitive 837 word article on the British Elections:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/09/world/europe/david-cameron-and-conservatives-emerge-victorious-in-british-election.html?emc=edit_na_20150508&nlid=51920914&_r=0

    In the first 810 of those 837 words they manage to talk ALLLLL about EVVVVVERYONE in the election…. except UKIP…. who’s not mentioned even once.

    But wait! In the last, final 27 words, the Times notes what a failure the election was for UKIP:

    “By contrast, the right-wing populist U.K. Independence Party, expected to draw many more votes across the rest of Britain, is likely to win just a few seats.”

    For anyone who managed to read all about Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, and the Scots for the first 97% of the article, literally just 3%, one single sentence, was given to UKIP … just to note how the “right-wing” party failed. Heh, the Time couldn’t even bring itself to say the four-letter-word — calling it “the right wing populist U.K. Indedpendence Party.”

    Absolutely Orwellian reporting: “If we don’t report it, then it’s the same as if it never happened!” right? When a newspaper bleeds its editorial policy THAT heavily over into the news it simply ceases to be a newspaper at all: it becomes a propaganda organ.

    ::sigh::

    – MJM

  7. harleyrider1978 says:

    Ed Miliband has resigned as Labour’s party leader

    Ed Miliband has bowed to the inevitable and resigned as leader of the Labour Party.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/ed-miliband-resigns-labour-leader-quits-10235146.html

  8. harleyrider1978 says:

    Nigel Farage is standing down as UKIP leader after failing to win Thanet South.

    Talking about his promise to quit if he lost, Mr Farage, said: “I’m a man of my word.”

    However, he did not rule out putting his name forward again in the leadership election in September.

    Mr Farage said he would recommend Suzanne Evans, the deputy chairman, be a stand-in leader until the contest is held.

    He also branded as “bankrupt” the current first-past-the-vote system, which gave the SNP 56 seats and UKIP one, despite securing a comparable number of votes

    http://news.sky.com/story/1480147/farage-quits-after-westminster-bid-fails

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      the SNP 56 seats and UKIP one, despite securing a comparable number of votes

      How the hell did that happen…………………..somebody monkeying with he electorial process in the UK or what.

      • kin_free says:

        No one has picked up this specific ‘spin’ from the sky article Harley;
        “… the SNP 56 seats and UKIP one, despite securing a comparable number of votes.”

        It sounds bad enough but this is understatement in the extreme – it is far far worse than that ;

        UKIP; 4.0 million votes = ONE (1) seat
        SNP; 1.5 Million votes = FIFTY SIX (56) seats!!

        How can any of this be described as ‘comparable’ ?

  9. harleyrider1978 says:

    So when its all said and done the far left radicals were defeated and the saviors of freedom defeated or cheated out by a system so corrupt its blind.

    Now Cameron the EU baby has a full mandate to fuck the UK along with Brussels from here on out for 5 years………….

  10. Frank Davis says:

    One puzzle with this election is: how come the pollsters got it so wrong?

    Was it because people only made up their minds at the last moment who to vote for? Or was it because they kept their voting intentions secret?

    Independent:

    The professional association that governs polling organisations is to launch a full inquiry into the inaccuracy of polling during the 2015 general election campaign.

    The British Polling Council said it would look at an apparent “bias” in polls across the board which saw large disparities between the industry’s final snapshots of opinion and the real result on the night.

    The Market Research Society, which concerns itself with survey standards in consumer research, will also be involved in the probe.

    “The final opinion polls before the election were clearly not as accurate as we would like, and the fact that all the pollsters underestimated the Conservative lead over Labour suggests that the methods that were used should be subject to careful, independent investigation,” the Council said in a statement.

    • jay says:

      Tristram Hunt has just been saying that many people told them (Labour) that they would abstain, then went out and voted UKIP (hardly surprising when kiippers were subject to vitriol and abuse).

  11. jay says:

    change.org/p/party-leaders-reform-our-voting-system-to-make-it-fair-and-representative-makeseatsmatchvotes

    Above is a link to a petition calling for reform of a voting system that enables UKIP to poll 3.5 million votes to win one seat….

  12. Rose says:

    I wonder if now the Conservatives have a majority and are no longer hamstrung by the illiberal lib dems, they’ll stop all the social engineering and go back to acting like proper Conservatives.

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  14. garyk30 says:

    UK voting sounds like the US Presidential system and it’s ‘Electoral Votes’ where you could get more of the popular votes and still not get enough ‘Electoral Votes’ to wim the election. :(

  15. harleyrider1978 says:

    The ACLU and the Low Income Housing Institute Are Opposed to the Proposed Smoking Ban in …

    TheStranger.com (blog)

    Add the ACLU of Washington and the Seattle-based Low Income Housing Institute to those on the record opposing a proposed ban on smoking …

    http://www.thestranger.com/blogs/slog/2015/05/08/22185464/the-aclu-and-the-low-income-housing-institute-are-opposed-to-the-proposed-smoking-ban-in-parks

  16. smokingscot says:

    Been a perfectly spiffing day! Of course I’d have been ecstatic had UKIP managed to score big, however they’ve done some things remarkably well.

    – The swing to UKIP and their ability to get people who have not voted in years to turn out on the day (1,500 in 2010, 7,900 in 2015) in Morley and Outwood resulted in the humiliating defeat of Ed Balls to the Tories. I REALLY enjoyed watching that – bye bye corrupt hypocrite!

    – There are many more similar examples, but the one we discussed a few days back (my comment, your place 29/4/15) actually happened! Angus Dalgleish took UKIP from 950 to 5300 and MANAGED TO GET RID OF PAUL BURSTOW!!!!!! Paul’s been in my sights for some time because he wants to give the tax on tobacco companies to ASH etc, so very spiffing indeed!

    – Two from the All Party Parliamentary Group on Smoking and Health have disappeared as well from Westminster. STEPHEN WILLIAMS successfully converted Bristol West 26,600 and 48% of the vote in 2010 to 12,100 and an abysmal 18.8% in 2015. That’s some achievement. And snowballed by the SNP the fat git JOHN ROBERTSON turned 19,230 and 54% of the vote to a pathetic 13,540 and 31%. (No news as yet on Bob Blackman or Kevin Barron – the other two elected members of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Smoking and Health).

    As a Scot I noted with great satisfaction that the Tories did NOT lose one single MP to SNP! They had one on 6 May and they still have one on 8 May. And they almost bagged Berwickshire etc:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies/S14000008

    Of course UKIP have held Clacton. Ain’t much, however it does mean they’ll have equal rights to air time, media etc. at all future elections.

    Douglas Carswell is likely to side with the Tories on most things, especially the “in-out” of the EU. He together with the non-attending Sinn Fein (4 MP’s) as well as the 8 DUP MP’s give the Tories a very workable majority. I count that 19.

    Farage made a valid point; UKIP’s well poised to do very well at the Scottish Assembly elections (where some are voted in a PR system) and any future by-elections.

    (This raises the issue of changing the electorial system to PR. No need whatsoever for the Tories to do a darned thing at the moment, however I suspect it’s advanced the date that it’ll be introduced)

    Personally I feel Nigel should not put his name forward for the post of Party Leader in September. He’s done good and I feel he’ll be better used as a sort of Boris Johnson type figure who can be bussed in when the need arises.

    However the really enjoyable thing about this election is the way so many people fibbed to the pollsters prior to the election. Well done y’all.

    • Rose says:

      I quite agree, Smokervoter, I was beginning to worry about Nigel Farage wearing himself out.
      He has certainly earned a long holiday, look how much has changed since he started saying the things the public were afraid to say.
      Amazing too, when you look back, how political correctness had quietly eroded plain speech without us really noticing.
      It does make you feel much more confident when you know there are 3,861,392 others out there thinking much the same.

      I’m still not sure about PR though, however helpful it would have been right now, you couldn’t run a horse race under the rules of PR, there have to be winners and losers.

      • smokervoter says:

        Here’s some fun with numbers from a “measure twice – cut once” kind of guy.

        Simon said there’d be around 14,068 potential smokervoters in Thanet South.

        The magic switcheroo number necessary to put Nigel over the top turned out to be 1407, damn near exactly 10% of that number.

        Switcheroo is the number of votes the winning Tory (Craig Mackinlay) would have had to lose directly to the second place Farage to have reversed the outcome.

        More fun with numbers. I guessed the total votes cast would be 49,599, the final tally was 49,111.

        I speculated that Mr. Farage would get around 4,950 smoker votes and, at 31% of what he ended up with, I think that’s an entirely plausible number. It’s statistically likely that 9,904 smokers voted and if Farage got a 50% plus one preponderance the number would be — 4,953.

        I ruminated about a 70% vs 65% turnout rate – it turned out to be 70.4%.

        In this case I think preponderance rather than turnout would have been the more effective tool in turning the results around. To bridge the 2,812 vote gap with turnout alone would have required 91% of smokers to show up. For preponderance Nigel would have had to grab 78% of the smokervoters. Why not I say?!?

        To say I’m disappointed in losing Nigel Farage as an articulate spokesman for the Death of the God Awful Nanny State would be an extreme understatement.

        And a belated Happy Birthday to ya’ Rose, you’re the greatest!

  17. Pingback: Three Leaders Resign Inside An Hour | Frank Davis

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