In the US mid-term elections tomorrow, it seems the Republicans are likely to win the Senate:
The liberal Huffington Post is entering the final weekend of the 2014 campaign predicting that Republicans will pick up enough seats to claim control of the Senate. Even discounting some races that have lately trended towards the GOP, HuffPo says that the odds of Republicans taking the majority are 69%. According to the HuffPo pollster, Democrats would have to pull the equivalent of an inside straight to keep Sen. Harry Reid as Majority Leader.
The problem seems to be that Democrat voters are so disappointed with Obama that they can’t be bothered to vote, while Republican voters are so angry that they’re determined to vote.
In the past I’ve always tended to hope for a Democrat victory. But those days are over now. For as far as I can see, Democrat politicians are all antismokers – Hillary Clinton being the first that comes to mind, and Michelle Obama the second. So I’m hoping that the Republicans win tomorrow, and win again in the next presidential election.
Except there seems to be a dearth of inspiring candidates. There doesn’t seem to be anyone quite like Nigel Farage in the USA, even though many of the problems there are the same as in the UK. But maybe no US politician would dare to be seen drinking a beer and smoking a cigarette (although there was that black guy at the last presidential election).
Despite being called a racist and a xenophobe, I think that Nigel Farage is actually just a conservative, and UKIP’s policies are what Cameron’s Conservatives should have, but don’t. And this is why so many Conservative MPs and councillors are defecting to UKIP. And also why UKIP looks set to win the upcoming Rochester and Strood by-election on Nov 20:
UKIP’s lead in the forthcoming Rochester by-election has jumped eight points in a monthly repeat poll and now stand at 48 percent, indicating Tory defector Mark Reckless is set to retain the seat in three weeks time.
Nigel Farage’s Eurosceptic party is now a remarkable 15-points ahead of the Conservatives who formerly held the seat, who are now on 33 percent, down from the 49 they took in 2010 at the general election. Although this is bad news for the Conservatives, who despite having promised to “throw the kitchen sink” at the election to secure victory but who are believed to have privately admitted defeat, it is worse news for the other parties.
Labour’s support has almost halved in the constituency since the general election and they may be humiliated if the by-election reflects this polls figure of 16 percent. Even worse news for coalition partners the Liberal Democrats who polled just one percent, making it almost certain they will lose their deposit, another £500 thrown away for a party already battling with financial troubles.
What will be of interest to UKIP strategists is the diverse background of their newfound voters, many of whom would never have voted for former Tory Reckless while he wore a blue rosette. The poll shows that while nearly half of those who voted Conservative in 2010 will now vote UKIP, a remarkable third of former Labour voters have also decided to support the ‘people’s army’.
48 percent is pretty huge. And since it was 43 percent just a couple of weeks back, it seems likely that it may be up past 50 percent by the time of the vote. And this time it’s not a popular MP being re-elected after changing parties (Douglas Carswell), but UKIP being preferred. We’re seeing a rejection of the entire ‘progressive’ LibLabCon political class.
Voting UKIP is no longer a “wasted vote”. There must be a real possibility of a whole bunch of parliamentary consituencies returning UKIP MPs next May.
H/T Harley for today’s video of Nigel Farage. It’s just occurred to me after watching it that the EU “free movement of peoples” is really just inviting people to walk in and take over. Hitler would have loved it, and complained that the French and British had no right to stop “the free movement of the Wehrmacht”. After all, what’s the difference between free movement of peoples and free movement of armies?