How Global Warming Is Invented

From Jo Nova:

How accurate are our national climate datasets when some adjustments turn entire long stable records from cooling trends to warming ones (or visa versa)? Do the headlines of “hottest ever record” (reported to a tenth of a degree) mean much if thermometer data sometimes needs to be dramatically changed 60 years after being recorded?

One of the most extreme examples is a thermometer station in Amberley, Queensland where a cooling trend in minima of 1C per century has been homogenized and become a warming trend of 2.5C per century. This is a station at an airforce base that has no recorded move since 1941, nor had a change in instrumentation. It is a well-maintained site near a perimeter fence, yet the homogenisation process produces a remarkable transformation of the original records, and rather begs the question of how accurately we know Australian trends at all when the thermometers are seemingly so bad at recording the real temperature of an area…

amberley-adjustments

This really stinks. Thermometers get calibrated when they’re made. And thereafter the raw data is whatever is read off them. And that data should be sacred. Because there’s no other record.

Why are they screwing around with the data? And why is a 70 year cooling trend being converted into a 70 year warming trend? The answer is probably that they want to see a warming trend (because that’s their ideological commitment), and so they’ve screwed around with the raw data to create a warming trend. And then they can show the warming trend to the Australian government and say, “Here’s the temperature trend in Amberley. It’s been steadily warming. And that’s very worrying.”

They may as well throw away all the thermometers and just make up the ‘data’ off the top of their heads.

I think the reason for the ‘homogenization’ is that air temperature is recorded in relatively few locations, and there are large areas where there are no records at all. So what they do then is to say that if it was 20°C 100 miles north of some place, and 26°C  100 miles south of it, then the temperature half way in between was most likely 23°C. Or else there are two or three thermometers a few miles apart, and they all have different readings, and so the average of them is taken, and some are ‘corrected’ upwards, some downwards. Something like that.

But however it’s done, and for whatever reason, the end result is a fabrication. It’s the result of having insufficient or contradictory data, and trying to extract good data from it. Really they should just say, “We don’t have enough data.”

When the whole planet is covered with accurate thermometers at 10 mile intervals, it may be possible – without making any extrapolations or interpolations or adjustments or corrections at all – to at last measure whether the planet is warming or cooling.

In the mean time, we all remain in the dark, and our ‘climate scientists’ are just guessing, and they should be ignored until they’ve got some good data.

About Frank Davis

smoker
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

31 Responses to How Global Warming Is Invented

  1. Having just had a quick look into the subject, I’m none the wiser. What I found interesting was from this blog, “Watching the Deniers”. According to this post from last year, an opinion poll found that in the USA,

    37% believed global warming a hoax while 51% don’t , with Republican voters much more likely to be “deniers”.

    In fact, Republicans are far more likely to believe in “conspiracy theories” than Democrats. That’s perhaps because the sort of people who voted for Obama would believe anything!

    But the article gets several things wrong.

    If you’re primed over decades of conspiratorial thinking and paranoia about a coming NWO, then the idea that climate change is a hoax will come naturally. Indeed, these two ideas are often folded together.

    Certainly, here in the UK, we’ve been primed to believe the opposite. We’ve been brainwashed to trust the ‘authorities’ (government, EU, UN, ‘experts’, the BBC, the NHS, etc.) yet many people see manmade climate change as a fraud.

    This blog is a testament to how many people mistrust the ‘experts’, although I think it’s fair to say that almost all regular contributors are conservative in nature, therefore we only care about ourselves, big business and making lots of money out of raping the planet!

    Here’s a cracker,

    For some time I have argued we should stop viewing climate change sceptic movement as simply a tool of big oil. We should also stop viewing climate sceptics as cynical shills, funded by the polluting industries to prop up their bottom lines for as long as possible by delaying action on climate change.

    Of course, we’re all tools of Big Tobacco as well, aren’t we?!

    I’m sure Frank, Leggy, D.P., etc., haven’t had as much as a free packet of Rizla papers in the mail and would return them if it ever happens.

    The prevalence of conspiracy theories within a society or nation can have a profound effect on its politics. Indeed for the last several decades scholars of conspiracy culture have been signalling the growing acceptance of conspiracy beliefs across the globe and their potential to distort political debate.

    On the contrary, the conspiracy FACTS need to be broadcast far and wide – almost impossible with most of the world’s media in the hands of half a dozen people – hence the idea that we have been “primed” to believe anything other than the lies we have been fed is nonsense.

    Of course, to make climate change “deniers” appear like conspiracy loons, they mix it in with crazy stuff, like,

    27% believed Obama was the Anti-Christ.

    If you look at the actual poll, the figure is 13%, so they must have used homogenisation to double the figure for added effect.

    One of the questions was:

    Do you believe that a secretive power elite with a globalist agenda is conspiring to eventually
    rule the world through an authoritarian world government, or New World Order, or not?
    28% Do
    46% Do not
    25% Not sure

    And the “conspiracy theory” which is perhaps most widely believed,

    Do you believe that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone in killing President Kennedy, or was
    there some larger conspiracy at work?
    25% Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone
    51% There was some larger conspiracy at work
    24% Not sure

    We know that politicians constantly lie. We know that ‘experts’ these days start with the conclusion and make the ‘evidence’ fit.

    Why would anyone believe anything mainstream? Manmade climate change or SHS or the need for globalisation to avoid wars or the Theory of Evolution!

    Do you believe the Bush administration intentionally misled the public about the possibility of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq to promote the Iraq War, or not?
    44% Do
    45% Do not
    12% Not Sure

    It”s supposed to be Republicans who are predisposed to believe in “conspiracy theories” but only 13% of them believe this one, while 72% of democrats do.

    They’re also more likely to believe that the Government allowed 9/11 to happen (but that was Bush Jr again) and that the CIA Spread crack in inner cities and that the moon landings were a hoax (Nixon: Republican) and that Paul McCartney died and was replaced by a look-a-like in 1966.

    I’ve studied many of these (as you might expect). Regarding the last one there, after watching videos of before and after, I came to the conclusion that it’s definitely the same Paul McCartney. Although, “We All Stand Together” (the ‘Frog Chorus’) does make you wonder….

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      The belief of Conspiracies isn’t based upon simple beliefs of some NWO. It based upon the fact that everything warned of during the last 60 years has slowly and incrementally become FACT!

      The tools of the conspirators is slow incremental change until even they cant stop themselves when they see their tools slowly being destroyed and their glorious Utopia they spent Trillions on to become reality start to be destroyed and the people rising up against it. For all they’re preparations,for all their JUNK SCIENCE,for all they’re doom and gloom prophecies the people see thru them. Weve have been criminalized,propagandaized, our children made victims of their teachings and lies.

      The governments they created and they’re depts. of Federal regulatory control have failed in their mission to suppress the freedoms we the people enjoy and protect.

      Thru out history CONTROL is practiced thru much deception,war,propaganda,religion or beliefs created to control the masses. Yet in that same history there are men,women and free thinking individuals who see thru the deceptions, the lies and mass hysteria caused and created to control the ultimate objective the submission of the people themselves to the conquerors demands.

      We will not be subjected to our liberties and out ways of lives being utterly criminalized and jailed for the simple pleasure of being a smoker,a fatty,a drinker or anything else we may be. We are free to be as we want to be and its in the name of freedom and liberty we all FIGHT BACK against those who would make us SUBMIT to their authoritarian power and beliefs.

      These are the teachings of history and mankind……………….

      Without freedom and Liberty nothing else is of a matter!

      • Exactly – it’s so obvious. But the masses are asleep and will be until it’s too late. I believe this time will be different. It’s been getting set up for many decades, as you say; even longer with the Fabians out to destroy families incrementally for over a century. I don’t think ‘they’ will leave any option open to the masses to be able to take back control. They have infested every institution, even the churches. The fake ‘War on Terror’ has given police powers they wouldn’t otherwise have. It’s all being taken care of so that when the time comes for a total collapse and take-over, we’re trapped in the control grid.

  2. P. Ondrin says:

    The problem with experts is that they are an expert in their own field. Often a very narrow field and, if their livelihood depends on it, very long. They never even venture into the next field and certainly don’t look at the whole farm. Most health experts see length of life as everything. The goal would seem to be to leave this life as you started it, being wheeled about, in a nappy, and reliant on someone else for you existence. Quality of life is nothing.
    Conspiracies? Many years ago I was told to always listen to a minority opinion because that opinion has been seriously thought through. It may be wrong, but if someone has devoted their free time to researching and finding evidence I think it should be considered. The problem is with all of it, be it from expert or amateur, is it is difficult or impossible to see the real truth. As the authorities have the resources to create ‘truth’ perhaps everything they do or say should be questioned first?

  3. harleyrider1978 says:

    Deadly Ebola has nothing on tobacco

    Dr. Tom Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, juggled an Ebola outbreak in Africa while traveling in Eastern Kentucky earlier this month to learn about the region’s stark health disparities.

    We appreciate his accepting U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers’ invitation to travel the mountains for three days, participate in events and discussions that drew more than 1,000 people, all while fielding worldwide calls and emails from those working to contain the deadly virus.

    After all that, the least Kentuckians can do is pay attention to what Frieden had to say, especially about what he called “the No. 1 cause of preventable death in this country” — smoking.

    Kentucky suffers the nation’s highest smoking-related death rate, which shaves an average five to six years off life expectancy compared with residents of other states.

    Kentucky’s lung cancer rate exceeds the nation’s by 67 percent, and in Eastern Kentucky it’s even higher. The state’s ranking on heart disease has actually worsened, Frieden reported, going from 30 percent above the U.S. rate in 1999 to 54 percent in 2011.

    How can we fight this scourge? Frieden prescribed:

    ■ Higher tobacco taxes.

    ■ Public smoking bans.

    ■ Aggressive advertising about how smoking and tobacco use harm human health.

    That combination drove down smoking rates in New York when Frieden was the city’s health commissioner, more than halving the number of kids who smoke. Kentucky lags on all three fronts.

    Only about a third of Kentuckians are protected by bans on smoking in enclosed public spaces while two-thirds of Americans live in places that have protections from secondhand smoke.

    Sadly, the local smoke-free movement appears to have hit a wall in Kentucky, and a recent Supreme Court ruling robs local health departments of the authority to enact smoke-free regulations.

    A Bluegrass Poll earlier this year found that 57 percent of registered voters support a statewide smoke-free law.

    But despite public opinion, the tobacco industry prevails with lawmakers. The top spender by far among lobbyists in this year’s General Assembly was Altria Group, parent company of Philip Morris USA and U.S. Smokeless Tobacco.

    Altria’s $156,200 spent on lobbying helped kill smoke-free legislation. Plus, the industry got its desired version of the bill banning electronic cigarette sales to minors, and blocked a new tax on e-cigarettes.

    Only eight states tax cigarettes less than Kentucky’s 60 cents a pack. The national average is $1.54 and the average for Kentucky’s seven border states is 84 cents.

    And, while Kentucky has pumped hundreds of millions of tobacco settlement dollars into agricultural development, the state that suffers the most from smoking has never waged a major media campaign against smoking.

    This year, 8,000 Kentuckians will die from smoking-related causes, according to the CDC head. That’s far more deaths than Ebola has caused in the almost 40 years since its first diagnosis.

    The onus is on the legislature to act; Kentuckians should demand it.

    Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2014/08/24/3393541_deadly-ebola-has-nothing-on-tobacco.html?rh=1#storylink=cpy

    http://www.kentucky.com/2014/08/24/3393541_deadly-ebola-has-nothing-on-tobacco.html?rh=1

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      Cigar News: Tobacco Plant Cures Ebola Patient

      In an article posted on Bloomberg News, it seems an Ebola drug made from a tobacco plant has saved U.S. aid workers.

      The article goes on to say that a small San Diego based company provided an experimental treatment for two Americans who were infected with the deadly Ebola virus in Liberia. The drug appears to be working.

      The small company of 9 employees released the experimental drug ZMapp which until now has only been used on infected animals. A subsidiary of Reynolds manufactures the treatment for Mapp from tobacco plants.

      The patients Kent Brantley and Nancy Writebol are both improving according to relatives and supporters.

      The patients have each received one dose of ZMapp in Liberia before being relocated to Emory University Hospital in Atlanta, however it is unknown how many treatments of this scarce drug will be required.

      Ebola is spread through direct contact with body fluids and has infected over 1600 people in West Africa killing more than half. The disease was first reported in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1976 and its symptoms include bleeding from the eyes, ears and nose.

      Historically the virus has killed 90 percent of those who contract and early treatment has helped bring down current numbers to a fatality rate of 60 percent.

      Currently there is no cure for Ebola despite several companies including Mapp working on candidate that until now have been in the animal testing phase.

      The FDA has yet to approve any drugs, although they can be in 24 hours, on an emergency basis.

      http://thecigarauthority.com/cigar-news-tobacco-plant-cures-ebola-patient/

  4. harleyrider1978 says:

    Kentucky suffers the nation’s highest smoking-related death rate, which shaves an average five to six years off life expectancy compared with residents of other states.

    Dr. Mark Evers, director of UK’s Markey Cancer Center says:

    We’ve enjoyed being No. 1 in a lot of different things, Kentucky does,” said Evers. “Obviously, UK and U of L (University of Louisville) have great sports rivalries and we all want to be No. 1. But the thing we don’t talk a lot about is the fact that Kentucky is No. 1 in the nation for overall cancer mortality. That’s a shame. That’s something we don’t want to be No. 1 in.”

    The ranking goes for all cancer deaths/mortality:

    Per 100,000 population CDC NUMBERS/ smoking rates from tobacco free kids

    Kentucky at 207 Adults in Kentucky who smoke* 29.0% (971,000)

    Miss. 200 Adults in Mississippi who smoke* 26.0% (579,300)

    West Virginia 196 Adults in West Virginia who smoke* 28.6% (420,500)

    Louisianna 196 Adults in Louisiana who smoke* 25.7% (888,300)

    Arkansas 193 Adults in Arkansas who smoke* 27.0% (601,400)

    Alabama 190 Adults in Alabama who smoke* 24.3% (893,100)

    Indiana 187 Adults in Indiana who smoke* 25.6% (1,259,300)

    Maine 186 Adults in Maine who smoke* 22.8% (241,400)

    Missouri 184 Adults in Missouri who smoke* 25.0% (1,149,600)

    Delaware 184 Adults in Delaware who smoke* 21.8% (153,100)

    South Carolina 182 Adults in South Carolina who smoke* 23.1% (831,200)

    As we can see kentucky has the Highest rate but when we look at the map of kentucky cancer it shows us that its the Coal Mining Mountain region that sets Kentuckys state level Higher than all the rest. When we look at the local county levels they are pretty much in line with the rest of the country. Louisville reports roughly 750 cancer cases in 2010 by the chart yet no mention of out of state cases diagnosed there by the local 5 hospitals and cancer treatment done there by far attracting a higher base rate. Possibly inflating the kentucky numbers for louisville itself.

    But even without removing the coal mining regions the rate trends precisely with other states……….

    The Kentucky Chamber of Commerce is trying to make a case of smoking causing the highest rates of cancer deaths in the nation here. Yet we see a trend with the other high states with even lower smoking rates. It is indeed a matter of pumping propaganda to get the legislature to go for a statewide ban. While they tell the truth its a mixed message without telling the full story which shows problem that isnt any different than other states listed.

    …………………………………………..

    Lung and Bronchus. Invasive Cancer Incidence Rates and 95% Confidence Intervals by Age and Race and Ethnicity, United States (Table 3.15.1.1M) *†‡

    Rates are per 100,000 persons. Rates are per 100,000 persons.

    Note the age where LC is found…………..OLD AGE group incidence hits the 500/100,000 at age 75-85

    AGE it seems is the deciding factor……….

    http://apps.nccd.cdc.gov/uscs/cancersbyageandrace.aspx?Gender=Male&Count=false&Population=false&DataType=Incidence&RateType=CrudeType&CancerSite=All Cancer Sites Combined&Year=2010&Site=Lung and Bronchus&SurveyInstanceID=1

  5. harleyrider1978 says:

    Bloomberg buys jihad on muslim smokers

    Muhammadiyah issued the fatwa on Tuesday, comparing smoking to suicide, which is prohibited in Islam. The next day, the organization and antitobacco campaigners jointly targeted cigarette advertising as one of the main culprits behind a spike in underage smokers.

    Over the weekend, however, Muhammadiyah found itself on the defensive, denying that the fatwa was related to a grant it received from a US-based antitobacco organization. The Bloomberg Initiative to Reduce Tobacco Use, funded by New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, lists a November 2009 grant to Muhammadiyah worth $393,234 on its Web site.

    Among the grant’s stated purposes is “the issuance and dissemination of religious advice on the dangers of tobacco use.”

    http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/archive/indonesian-clerics-join-smoking-fatwa-row/

  6. carol2000 says:

    Bloomberg’s funding anti-smoking in Turkey: “But what Mr. Bloomberg really wanted to talk about was the success of his antismoking program in Turkey, an effort that has drawn the passionate support of his newest Turkish pal, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the former prime minister and the country’s just-elected president.” He has $33 billion to throw around. “Mr. Erdogan’s rhetoric can be just as strong. In a speech in late 2007, he gave a boost to antismoking efforts by likening the selling of cigarettes to terrorism. “His speech did more than any antismoking advocate could have done,” said Elif Dagli, a doctor and antismoking activist who has received funding from Mr. Bloomberg.

    This address established Mr. Erdogan as perhaps the hardest-line antismoking head of state around. His associates tell stories of him grabbing cigarette packages from cabinet colleagues, scribbling the date on the pack and then exhorting the stunned smoker to quit from that day on.”

    “In Turkey, Mr. Bloomberg’s antismoking efforts, led by Kelly Henning, a top public health official from Mr. Bloomberg’s days at City Hall, started in November 2007 — just before Mr. Erdogan’s anti-tobacco speech. Doctors, academics and health officials — most of whom had spent decades warning of the dangers of smoking — were identified and funded. Some of the experts had ties to sympathetic officials in the health ministry who, in turn, had Mr. Erdogan’s ear. Soon, papers and proposals were circulating that advocated banning cigarettes in public areas and increasing taxes to stem consumption.”

    “In fact, the financier in him smiles at the fact that the $7 million his foundation has spent against smoking in Turkey has produced such an impressive return.”
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/24/business/international/michael-bloombergs-harder-sell.html

    • nisakiman says:

      Bugger. I’m going to Istanbul next month for a few days. Looks like it’s going to be somewhat different to Greece on the smoking front. The last time I was there was 1970, and it was a very laid-back city.

      What is it with these zealots? Why can’t they live and let live? Why is it that they feel this compulsion to force everyone into complying with their ideological diktats?

      Arseholes.

  7. harleyrider1978 says:

    Frank I was following some of the Nazis on the Ky story above and looky what else they’ve got going on…………..

    Kentucky Student Environmental Coalition – KSEC

    Want to get paid to help coordinate the coolest environmental organization in the state and gain valuable community organizing and non-profit experience to help land you a super-sweet post-graduation job? Well what are you waiting for? APPLY BY AUGUST 24th! http://www.kystudentenvironmentalcoalition.org/internships

    More post grads for the junk science mill……….and we the taxpayer are getting stuck for it yet again and their even going to pay them off to join up!

    When you have to offer CASH to get people into your agenda it doesn’t say much for that agenda does it! It means they cant get people to go for the BS.

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      It gets even better ROFLMAO………………..

      Brock Meade shared Greater Louisville Sierra Club’s event.

      August 21 at 5:14pm.

      Hey folks! Kentucky is turning out to the People’s Climate March this September!! Follow this facebook event page here to pay for your ticket on one transportation option. No one will be turned away for lack of funds!

      Also, let me know if you’d like to do any coordination regarding food donations for the weekend. Housing options are available as well! Or we can fashion our own housing options.

      Solidarity!

      https://www.facebook.com/events/1481075822137662/?notif_t=plan_user_joined

      Greater Louisville Sierra Club’s photo.

      Join

      Kentucky Buses to People’s Climate March
      Saturday, September 20 at 6:00am in EDT
      Columbus Circle, New York City in New York, New York20 people are going..

      LikeLike · Share

      • harleyrider1978 says:

        If folks were turning out you wouldn’t need to advertise free rides and accomidations………….lol Next they will be offering CASH to show up and be a paid demonstrator like Jessie Jacksons RAINBOW PUSH COALITION!

  8. harleyrider1978 says:

    ROFLMAO yet again……………..college grad 19 grand a year. An E-1 makes that much in the military!

    Sierra Club Illinois Job Openings

    Positions: Campaign Organizers

    Salary: Rate of $19,500/yr plus benefits

    Term: August-November 2014
    The Sierra Club, Illinois Chapter is seeking applicants for temporary Campaign Organizer positions who will build support for action on climate change and clean energy, and help elect candidates who want to move beyond fossil fuels to clean power. Organizers will engage citizens in solving climate change, contact voters to educate them about candidates’ positions, and gain first-hand campaign experience working alongside environmental and political professionals. Work includes direct contact with voters, community organizing, recruiting volunteers, and generating publicity for candidates and environmental issues.
    Salary is approximately $1625 per month. Work begins between July 15th and September 1st, and runs through November 7th. Strong candidates will be recent college graduates with demonstrated experience or skills in organizing or political campaigns. Candidates must have received a college degree within the last 12 months.
    HOW TO APPLY
    Apply online at: https://ch.tbe.taleo.net/CH15/ats/careers/requisition.jsp?org=SIERRACLUB&cws=1&rid=439

    Careers – Sierra Club

    Context: The Campaign Organizer works within the campaign of a Sierra Club-endorsed candidate to identify and persuade voters to vote for the candidate, to recruit volunteers for the campaign, and to raise turnout among pro-environment voters.

    ch.tbe.taleo.net

  9. harleyrider1978 says:

    This is how the Democrats are trying to get out the vote in Kentucky and likely in every state.

    Remember the OHIO get out the vote drive for the OHIO petition drive the ACS did. They were busted hiring criminals to be petitioners. Then the petition itself had criminals signed up on it as qualified voters after the checking was done………….Ive seen these folks using illegals and running vans from one precinct to the next voting and voting yet again. Then we hear about some judge granting polls stay open longer in some districts because of WHATEVER excuse they needed to get more guaranteed votes for the democrats. Its just the Criminal with these people. That’s not to say they are all like that but down south and up North they sure are. Ive seen it personally and even turned it in with PICTURES and video tape of such goings ons. Especially back in 1996 during the Clinton reelection vote! They opened a INS office in Nashville tn 3 months before the election because everyone wanted the illegals gone and then 2 weeks after the 96 election was over the INS office closed all of a sudden! lol

    Lmao……………turning out Progressive Voters

    Role and Responsibilities

    All of these positions will help implement KFTC’s voter empowerment strategies aimed at registering, informing, engaging and turning out new and episodic progressive voters.

    KFTC is an equal opportunity employer. Women and people of color are strongly encouraged to apply.

    Talk about Race Baiting…………..basically if your white don’t bother!

    Job Announcement for Electoral Organizers and Data Entry Specialist

    Numerous 11+ week positions, 10 to 40 hours per week, $13.20/hour

    Kentuckians For The Commonwealth is a grassroots social justice organization with more than 8,000 members statewide. The organization seeks to hire dozens of electoral organizers to work in many areas of the state for our fall voter empowerment campaign. In addition, a few positions are available that are exclusively focused on data entry and management. Some positions could be extended by an additional 4 to 6 weeks beyond the election to assist with KFTC’s end-of-year fundraising campaign.

    http://kftc.org/jobs/electoral-organizers-data-entry

  10. harleyrider1978 says:

    Frank these Envirotrons are even trying to get stupid folks to divest from energy companies with their Endowments into green energy alternatives………..That’s like throwing your money into an incinerator. It will bankrupt them all!

    Web Workshop: Financial Arguments for Divestment

    July 2nd
    530pm PT/ 830pm ET

    Presented By: Brett Fleishman, Senior Analyst 350.org and Free Range Economics Blogger
    Timing: 1.5 hours

    Has your divestment campaign hit informational barriers? Is the divestment debate becoming a bit too complex? Would you like a basic refresher on the financial side of the discourse? If you answered yes to any of these questions or you love webinars about financial issues, you don’t want to miss Brett’s talk on Financial Arguments for Divestment. He will cover, key terms, the 200 list, institutional investment key players, capex, engagement vs divestment, risk and return, and other exciting topics.

  11. Some French bloke says:

    The ‘homogenization’ trick (due to a lack of convenient data) recalls the use of age-standardized rates, especially as regards cancer rates, for propaganda purposes, except that this recourse is due to a surfeit of INconvenient data. Sometimes MSM articles using such figures don’t even specify which population pyramid the rates have been adjusted to, or don’t even mention standardization!
    And when increases are too steep to produce standardized decreases, the practice of cherry-picking becomes second nature, and at times ‘extreme cherry-picking’ is even called for.
    One of the big anti-smoking kahunas in France goes by the name of Catherine Hill (I expect her counterparts to be ‘Silvana Peto’ for Italy and ‘Gretchen Doll’ for Germany).
    Her obvious mission is to ‘demonstrate’ that lower smoking rates have led to decreases in lung cancer. Since overall LC death rates in France have been rising for both men and women these last decades (or for the last 100 years, for that matter), the last resort is to delve into the statistics in search of decreases in lower-age groups, it not being uncommon to find declining rates in younger people while overall rates increase.
    She found that for men aged 35 to 44, rates were divided by two in 10 years and for women of the same age group rates quadrupled in 15 years…
    la mortalité chez les hommes a été divisée par deux en 10 ans et la mortalité chez les femmes a été multipliée par quatre en 15 ans” (I googled part of this sentence and got 318 results)

    Not mentioned is the fact that you have to pick different periods for it to be true: 1983-1998 for women (1.27 to 5.61), 1999-2009 for men (13.89 to 7.04).
    Then, classically starting with the conclusion and making the ‘evidence’ fit (Stewart Cowan), she goes on to say that women ‘really started smoking’ from the 1980s, which sounds stridently at odds with everything we knew about female smoking prevalence. This Gallic ‘Attila the hen’ therefore can pronounce: “there is no alternative (TINA) you absolutely must quit smoking”:
    http://www.elle.fr/Societe/Interviews/Catherine-Hill-Il-n-y-a-pas-d-alternative-il-faut-absolument-arreter-de-fumer.-1240345

    Yet, in the UK, while overall male lung cancer death rates per 100,000 went from 47.3 to 111.2 (peak level) between 1950 and 1979, for men aged 40 to 49, LC death rates went from 40.8 to 25 per 100,000. Men born in the 1930’s took up smoking after WWII (arguably the most ‘smokebound’ generation in history) while those born in the 1900’s took it up en masse after WWI. How would Catherine Hill (or Emily Wynder or Lucy Banzhaf, etc) account for that particular decrease?

    More recently, LC death rates for Ukrainian men aged 40 to 49 (with a male smoking prevalence upwards of 50%), fell from 51.3/100,000 in 1989 to 21.2 in 2011. How would Catherine Hill (or Laurie Repace, or Suzy Glantz, etc) account for that?

    • Frank Davis says:

      The ‘homogenization’ trick (due to a lack of convenient data) recalls the use of age-standardized rates.

      Thanks for mentioning that. The thought crossed my mind while writing the above piece. Because in the UK at least I believe the unadjusted raw data shows lung cancer rates steadily rising, while the age-standardized rates show a peak around 1990. Needless to say, it’s the latter that is shown on CRUK’s website, as a consequence of lots of people giving up smoking.

      As I understand it, age-standardization is used to compare one population (e.g.France) with another population (e.g. Germany) by taking into account differences in the age populations. But if you’re not comparing populations, but just looking at a single population (e.g. Britain), why should you age-standardize it?

      If I’m right, age-standardization is highly comparable to temperature homogenization, which in effect takes into account other ‘populations’ of thermometers elsewhere.

      I’ve never actually tried to perform an age-standardization procedure on any population. I believe it’s fairly simple, once you have the raw data. I remember looking into it a few years ago, but taking it no further.

      • mikef317 says:

        I’m rotten at math. (But why should that stop me from commenting?)

        Re age-standardization for a single population.

        Suppose I compare lung cancer in the U. S., 1950 vs 2014. 1950 was the beginning of the baby boom. Lots of kids, lowering the average age of the population. Kids don’t get lung cancer. Today, the baby boomers are at retirement age – the very age when LC is most likely to strike. The average age of the entire population has to be much older than it was in 1950.

        I’d think that some type of age adjustment would be required.

        But I’m really rotten at math.

      • Some French bloke says:

        if you’re not comparing populations, but just looking at a single population (e.g. Britain), why should you age-standardize it?

        Adjustment is often used when comparing levels of a disease in e.g. the 1960s to the more recent data for the same country, generally allowing to claim a drop in mortality that is not borne out by the cold hard facts (raw numbers).
        Come to think of it, when researching this subject, you’re almost always making some type of comparison or other, diachronically or synchronically, which may justify standardization. Even if you’re comparing rates for men versus those for women on a same year, why should not the two sides of the age pyramid also be ‘adjusted’?
        A more realistic approach would be to give the raw numbers, along with separate information on the various age pyramid structures involved.

        Like all those epidemiological studies (in)complete with studiously ignored confounders, this kind of trick can conjure up a kind of fantasy world. In the case of standardization of rates ‘for all ages’ to the world population (ASR-W), an amusing result is that (real) higher birthrates in e.g. Sub-Saharan Africa translate to (fictitiously) less e.g. prostate cancers in the West… “the thingmabob that does the job is Bibbidi-bobbidi-boo!

        • harleyrider1978 says:

          The way I see it age adjustment simply moves diseases that normally strike the elderly into the lower age rates. Its a very convenient way to make a lot of claims geared toward a certain sun-group of younger folks your trying to scare into submission.

  12. harleyrider1978 says:

    sub-group……………

    • Some French bloke says:

      The trick, as it can legitimately be called when those kinds of figures are used disingenuously (as is often the case in the MSM), of adjusting statistics for e.g. individual US states that have different disease or mortality rates, to the US national age structure, will result in artificial increases of already higher numbers for e.g. Alabama and artificial decreases of already lower numbers for e.g. Minnesota…

  13. harleyrider1978 says:

    http://www.kentucky.com/2014/08/24/3393541_deadly-ebola-has-nothing-on-tobacco.html?rh=1

    Scott White · Top Commenter · Shareholder at Morgan & Pottinger, PSC

    Terrific and accurate editorial. Our Department of. Health remains unbowed in its various counter-attacks against Big Tobacco.

    Reply · Like

    · Follow Post · 10 hours ago

    Jack Hudson · Western Kentucky University

    Mr White as you are I assume Scott White chairman of the board of the Lexington-Fayette County Health Department.

    I would ask why you had my comments pulled down by Kentucky.com when I disagreed with you about your above comment.

    Is this normal procedure for debate with the Lexington Health dept is concerned and your smoking police that make undercover enforcement raids on privately owned businesses that are trying to stay in Business after so many closed after the original ban was forced thru City Council.

    Political/Health debate on the smoking issue is so easily destroyed by a few posts from a normal citizen from Bowling Green Ky you have to forcible remove those comments is beyond anything I have ever encountered.Is you and the CDC directors case so weak that a common citizen can destroy it that easily that you must SILENCE ALL DISSENTERS!

    I do believe we still live in America a free society or was until 2008!

    Just remember Prohibition failed before and it will again. Enjoy your prohibitional law while it lasts I doubt it will survive 2 more years.

    Lexington Health Department top-notch

    By Scott White

    August 8, 2014

    Scott White is chairman of the board of the Lexington-Fayette County Health Department.

    Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2014/08/08/3371991_lexington-health-department-top.html?rh=1#storylink=cpy

  14. harleyrider1978 says:

    This Nazi is proud of his Hitler position too

    The Health Department operates at a level of excellence that fulfills our mission to “Prevent, Promote, Protect” in the following areas:

    ■ Protecting us from infectious diseases. (We are the first responders to an outbreak.)

    ■ Enforcing health laws like the smoking ordinance.

    Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2014/08/08/3371991_lexington-health-department-top.html?rh=1#storylink=cpy

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      These comments will likely be gone before any of you could even get there to the story but if you do go ahead and nail the bastards for me again!

      Jack Hudson · Western Kentucky University

      Thanks Bill I figured out why the comments were pulled. These folks arguments are so weak they cannot even stand up to open debate. Its just that weak.

      Reply · Like

      · 2 seconds ago
      .

      Jack Hudson · Western Kentucky University

      Lexington Health Department top-notch

      By Scott White

      August 8, 2014

      Scott White is chairman of the board of the Lexington-Fayette County Health Department

      Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2014/08/08/3371991_lexington-health-department-top.html?rh=1#storylink=cpy

      Reply · Like

      · 2 seconds ago
      Jack Hudson · Western Kentucky University

      The Health Department operates at a level of excellence that fulfills our mission to “Prevent, Promote, Protect” in the following areas:

      ■ Protecting us from infectious diseases. (We are the first responders to an outbreak.)

      ■ Enforcing health laws like the smoking ordinance

      Reply · Like

      · 2 seconds

      Jack Hudson · Western Kentucky University

      Scott, Hitler also enforced his HEALTH EDICTS and Laws with a bayonet or a GAS CHAMBER!

      Hitler’s Anti-Tobacco Campaign

      One particularly vile individual, Karl Astel — upstanding president of Jena University, poisonous anti-Semite, euthanasia fanatic, SS officer, war criminal and tobacco-free Germany enthusiast — liked to walk up to smokers and tear cigarettes from their unsuspecting mouths. (He committed suicide when the war ended, more through disappointment than fear of hanging.) It comes as little surprise to discover that the phrase “passive smoking” (Passivrauchen) was coined not by contemporary American admen, but by Fritz Lickint, the author of the magisterial 1100-page Tabak und Organismus (“Tobacco and the Organism”), which was produced in collaboration with the German AntiTobacco League.

      Reply · Like

      · 2 seconds ago
      .

      .
      ..

      • harleyrider1978 says:

        Jack Hudson · Western Kentucky University

        These so called leading citizens could sure use a lesson in the real facts. Its no wonder they run anytime I come to debate the subject of smoking anywhere. They all run and wont even show their faces when open debate is allowed. I don’t even work for anybody just a retired Navy Veteran trying to maintain the same freedoms we all enjoy and the simple freedom of choise we should all EMPLOY!

        • harleyrider1978 says:

          The Health Department operates at a level of excellence that fulfills our mission to “Prevent, Promote, Protect” in the following areas:

          ■ Protecting us from infectious diseases. (We are the first responders to an outbreak.)

          ■ Enforcing health laws like the smoking ordinance

          Mr White Id like to ask you if youd also pass a health law like this and perform arrests of Obese people caught eating in a restaurant!

          House Committee: Public Health and Human Services*, Judiciary B

          Principal Author: Mayhall
          Additional Authors: Read, Shows

          Title: AN ACT TO PROHIBIT CERTAIN FOOD ESTABLISHMENTS FROM SERVING FOOD TO ANY PERSON WHO IS OBESE, BASED ON CRITERIA PRESCRIBED BY THE STATE DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH; TO DIRECT THE DEPARTMENT TO PREPARE WRITTEN MATERIALS THAT DESCRIBE AND EXPLAIN THE CRITERIA FOR DETERMINING WHETHER A PERSON IS OBESE AND TO PROVIDE THOSE MATERIALS TO THE FOOD ESTABLISHMENTS; TO DIRECT THE DEPARTMENT TO MONITOR THE FOOD ESTABLISHMENTS FOR COMPLIANCE WITH THE PROVISIONS OF THIS ACT; AND FOR RELATED PURPOSES.

          Fron your Facebook page it appears you could lose some weight yourself perhaps if you took up smoking you could lower the scales a tad more!

No need to log in

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.