Inevitable Resistance

One thing I didn’t mention last night was that the Global War on Smokers has given me a powerful shove to the political right in recent years: I’ve become a lot more of a conservative and traditionalist than I ever was before, and deeply suspicious of anything that seems even faintly ‘progressive’.

And I think that this is a natural reaction. When people are pushed in some direction, they push back. They resist. And the harder they’re pushed, the harder they push back. It’s a resistance that is almost as physical as Newton’s Third Law of Motion:  For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. And in the case of the smoking ban, it is the force of law that is being used against smokers. And the force of law is a very powerful force. And so the opposite reaction is equally powerful.

I was thinking today that if it was some sort of conservative, traditionalist agenda that was being advanced using the force of law, I’d be reacting against that just as strongly. And I even toyed with the the thought that if you really want to make people do something, all you need to do is to force them to do the exact opposite.

After all, I’m more determined than ever to carry on smoking. It’s become a matter of honour.

And given that in the UK the prevalence of smoking seems to have hardly fallen at all, it seems that most other British smokers have done the same. In fact, wherever smoking bans are introduced, it seems that smoking prevalence remains static.

And that’s why Tobacco Control starts demanding display bans, plain packaging, street bans and even home bans. After all, if the public smoking bans failed to have the desired effect, then clearly more bans are needed. Greater force must be exerted.

But the harder that smokers get pushed, the harder they’ll push back.

It won’t be any different from the 1960s, when a wave of arrests of marijuana/hashish smokers and dealers in the UK simply resulted in more people determinedly smoking even more of the stuff (and trying other things too).

And that’s what’s happening with tobacco too. So the effect of this persecution will be (already is) to create a population of determined, resolute smokers. In exactly the same way that the persecution of Catholics or Protestants (or anyone else) makes the Catholics even more determinedly Catholic, and the Protestants more steadfastly Protestant. Christianity, after all, has always been nourished by the blood of its martyrs. The greatest and most iconic of which was Christ himself. And if Christianity is in decline these days, it’s probably simply because Christians aren’t being persecuted enough.

(Much the same probably happens with military units. Hardened veteran soldiers are ones who have endured multiple intensive attacks, which have served to build up their resistance.)

So I foresee a future in which there are lots of proud, resolute, in-your-face smokers (who really will blow smoke in non-smokers’ faces). And since smokers are being persecuted almost everywhere in the world, there will be lots of them all over the world. In fact, there probably already are.

And most likely, as cigarettes become seen as torches or beacons of freedom, or symbols of defiant resistance, rather than ‘cancer sticks’, more and more people will want to take up smoking in order to gain the cachet of being ‘resistance fighters’. And perhaps one day there’ll even be medals awarded to the most heroic smokers.

What does seem clear is that Tobacco Control hasn’t got its psychology right. They think that all that’s needed to achieve their goals is the application of increasing amounts of force. And that’s probably because the only sort of psychology they seem to understand is terror. They think that they can terrorise people into quitting smoking. They don’t seem to realise that the greater the force they apply, the more people will resist them, and the less benign they will appear, despite all their protests that they are concerned only with ‘health’, and with ‘helping’ smokers.

And when the terror tactics don’t work, and they demand even stronger measures, governments are going to become increasingly reticent about implementing such measures. Somewhere down the track along which Tobacco Control first demands that people be evicted from their homes for smoking, and then sent to prison for smoking, and then have their noses cut off for smoking, even a Labour or Conservative British government is likely to call a halt. Or at least I like to think so.

And I have something of the sense that the British government is already dragging its feet about introducing ‘plain packaging’ of tobacco. Because that won’t work either, of course, and will only be followed by a call for even tougher and more intrusive measures. All the same, I expect our spineless government to introduce plain packaging anyway.

Beyond all this, there is the sheer mind-boggling scale of Tobacco Control’s war on smoking and smokers. They have set out to rid the entire world of tobacco and smoking and smokers. It’s an utopian goal. It’s completely unrealistic. In fact, it’s barking mad. And one day people will notice this.

And so Tobacco Control will come to be seen as a band of insane witch-hunters, persecuting hundreds of millions of people. They will one day rival the Nazis (to whom they are closely related, and perhaps even identical) in infamy. And most likely their principal officers will, like the Nazis, be tried and sentenced. Or hunted down in remote Argentinian villages to which they have fled.

In fact, I don’t know why they aren’t seen this way already. It is, after all, the way I see them. And the way that many of my readers see them.

But then, there was a time – not very long ago – when even I thought that Tobacco Control was a benign UN medical organisation. It’s only as I’ve become aware of the enormous damage they’re doing, and their sheer mendacity, that I’ve stopped seeing them as good, and started seeing them as evil.

And if I can manage that transition, other people can too. And they will, when they get to find out more about Tobacco Control. Because if they know anything at all about Tobacco Control, they’ll think that it’s a benign UN medical organisation, only trying to help smokers quit smoking in the gentlest possible way, just like I once did.

 

About Frank Davis

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38 Responses to Inevitable Resistance

  1. waltc says:

    I’d say about half the smokers I’ve known have quit and I’d say as nations we’re now down to the hard core. If you haven’t been scared, bankrupted, isolated or nagged by “loved ones” into quitting by now, you likely won’t ever, and yes I think the skeptical, independent younger gens are smoking tho the results of campus votes on bans (majority For) are discouraging. Too many seem to have been ensnared by PC in a wave of mindlessness.

    The q is will the hard core fight in any meaningful way (if someone can define meaningful)? Even Audrey, who I see as the general in our army can only win a few skirmishes, not a battle, and only delay the inevitable for a time, if that. So far the answer to will smokers as a group fight seems to be no and perhaps to some extent realistically since the decks–including the courts– are so stacked. If a smoker is threatened with job loss or eviction unless he quits and has a family to support, what does he do? Especially if he doesn’t know there are places he can turn to for practical or even moral support? Not that that support will affect the outcome. We’re armed with logic and pea shooters against a juggernaut. And by now there are already countries that fine smokers a year!s pay or jail them

    Finally the Terror is aimed as much if not more at the non smokers, working them up into a frenzy of hatred and fear. It will take a lot of science and PR to undo that and I don’t yet see it coming or know what it’ll take to bring it on

    • Edgar says:

      We win simply by not giving up. They lose.

      • harleyrider1978 says:

        Bingo and making every living day of their existence a living hell all over the internet!

        • harleyrider1978 says:

          Walt all we have to do is outlast em………………….fight the hell out of them all the way.

          Political will for anti-smoking is fast dying Im telling ya its getting close to the end of it all.

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      Walt I read an artivle not to long ago that the fastest growing group of smokers is former smokers starting back up………..Might as well after they hear quitters are the fastest growing new LC cases!

  2. junican says:

    Odd that I should happen upon this post just as I was about to go to bed.
    You display, in a round-about way, the inconsistency of Government. On the one hand, it wants to maximise income from tobacco sales, but, at the same time, it wants to TOTALLY ELIMINATE smoking. The capitalisation illustrates the hysteria.
    There is a WAR going on. It has little to do with smokers or non-smokers. It has everything to do with academics like Glatnz, Chapman and co. AT WAR with tobacco companies. Therefore, TRUTH becomes irrelevant. What is important is what will win THE WAR. Thus, LIES are perfectly acceptable and MORAL.
    The WAR is between Zealots and the Tobacco Industry. Somehow, the Zealots have conned politicians into persecuting smokers without damaging their enemy, the Tobacco Industry.

    The WAR has nothing to do with smokers. It is about who will be in control. It is about DOMINATION.
    Weird, is it not, that our Prime Minister and his equivalents in the other Parties, are absolutely schtum about DOMINATION.

    • Frank Davis says:

      On the one hand, it wants to maximise income from tobacco sales, but, at the same time, it wants to TOTALLY ELIMINATE smoking.

      Perhaps that goes to show how government has a variety of conflicting aims.

      Or how it wants to have its cake and eat it.

  3. waltc says:

    I can’t seem to paste this so you might want to go to wheatandweeds.com and look at the featured poster–top blog as of now.

  4. I was about 40 (ten years ago) when I changed from liberal-ish leftie to become increasingly conservative. How do I explain believing so long in a political system which is contrary to my spiritual and moral outlook and my understanding of social and economic matters (having started my first business aged 18)? I can only think that I bought into what Churchill described – then grew up.

    Show me a young Conservative and I’ll show you someone with no heart. Show me an old Liberal and I’ll show you someone with no brains.

    Acc. to Wikiquotes’ “List of Misquotations”: The phrase originated with Francois Guisot (1787-1874): “Not to be a republican at twenty is proof of want of heart; to be one at thirty is proof of want of head.”

    I assumed (media conditioning?) that socialists cared about other people, while conservatives cared only about themselves. The idea never occurred to me that conservatives understood that socialism and liberalism (as it has become) held people back and increased the size of the state to dangerous levels imperilling our freedom. I was unaware of Lenin’s quote, “The goal of socialism is communism”, a truth we are becoming more aware of with the increasing power of the likes of the UN and EU.

    Other quotes I like:

    The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else.
    ― Frédéric Bastiat

    I must add… my gratitude to you for the attention with which you have listened to me, for, from my numerous observations, our Liberals are never capable of letting anyone else have a conviction of his own without at once meeting their opponent with abuse or even something worse.
    ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, The Idiot

    A tricky one to master: …the most important thing you must remember when dealing with a politically biased professor is to be friendly.
    ― Lee Doren, Please Enroll Responsibly: Avoid Indoctrination at College

    From the same book and equally applicable to just about everyone who works for the BBC:

    This is not hyperbole. It is possible for the average professor to have been taught by leftists, grown up in a left-leaning city, read only left-leaning books, entertained by leftists in pop culture and became a professor without holding a job outside academia. How can we expect these professors to adequately explain what people who oppose them believe?
    ― Lee Doren, Please Enroll Responsibly: Avoid Indoctrination at College

    The reason all the ‘intellectuals’ – Sartre and Marx, Hemingway and Hellman – (. . .) are Leftists is that a defining characteristic of the ‘intellectual’ is the belief, stemming from inane notions of the perfectibility of man, that he can sit in a darkened room and purely by thinking, create a new heaven and a new earth, utopia, the eschaton immanentized. Rubbish, of course, but there you have it.
    ― Markham Shaw Pyle

    Liberalism is the ideology of Western suicide. When once this initial and final sentence is understood, everything about liberalism – the beliefs, emotions and values associated with it, the nature of its enchantment, its practical record, its future – falls into place.
    ― Kyle Bristow, The Conscience of a Right-Winger

    Political correctness is the natural continuum from the party line. What we are seeing once again is a self-appointed group of vigilantes imposing their views on others. It is a heritage of communism, but they don’t seem to see this.
    ― Doris Lessing

    What is the difference between a parasite and a liberal? The spelling!
    ― Ziad K. Abdelnour

    You’ll like this one:

    Heinrich Himmler was a certified animal rights activist and an aggressive promoter of “natural healing.” Rudolf Hess, Hitler’s deputy, championed homeopathy and herbal remedies. Hitler and his advisers dedicated hours of their time to discussions of the need to move the entire nation to vegetarianism as a response to the unhealthiness promoted by capitalism. Dachau hosted the world’s largest alternative and organic medicine research lab and produced its own organic honey. In profound ways, the Nazi antismoking and public health drives foreshadowed today’s crusades against junk food, trans fat, and the like. A Hitler Youth manual proclaimed, “Nutrition is not a private matter!

    — From Jonah Goldberg’s “Liberal Fascism”

    But then, there was a time – not very long ago – when even I thought that Tobacco Control was a benign UN medical organisation. It’s only as I’ve become aware of the enormous damage they’re doing, and their sheer mendacity, that I’ve stopped seeing them as good, and started seeing them as evil.

    — C. Frank Davis

    And this is just one of many evils committed by the UN. How do you wake up the (I expect) vast majority who still think positively about the UN in the same way as you did and I did? Especially with Agenda 21 and ‘sustainability’ gaining momentum and threatening our freedom, our livelihoods and our lives like nothing that has gone before.

    • Frank Davis says:

      Interesting. But I don’t know why you added my unremarkable thought.

    • smokervoter says:

      Stewart, have you ever eavesdropped over at one of the lefty websites and watched them attempt to squirm out from under the utterly damning truth of Jonah Goldberg’s indictment of their Third Reich simlitudes when it comes to statism, public health and the environment?

      Michelle Obama most definitely endorses “Nutrition is not a private matter!” and we all know her strong stand on smoking and her husbands total capitulation to her on that front. Not only did he cave in but he has surrounded himself with a group of the most ardent, bloodthirsty antismokers imaginable.

      Thomas Frieden (CDC), Margaret Hamburg (FDA, the administration’s plain packaging operative), Kathleen Sebilius (HHS, longtime, hardcore antismoking witch) and as part of his original transition team, William Corr (of TobaccoFree Kids fame).

      Now he wants to stick smokers with the cost of free universal pre-school (read: Obama Youth).

      If you’ve ever seen a First5 presentation (a California pre-school program foisted upon California smokers by the abhorrent, leftwing, failed actor/director Rob Reiner) you’ll get a glimpse of what the federal program will turn out like if Obama gets his way. Pure Agenda 21 all the way. It’s just sickening youth brainwashing, pure and simple. All done with a big yellow Have a Nice Day smiley face.

      Liberal Fascism is a reality that must be stopped.

      • I used to post to leftie blogs like Labour List and loser MP Tom Harris, but gave up. The Guardian ‘news’paper censors all my comments to the stage that not one gets through, so I don’t bother with that rag either. I’ve tried to leave comments on the blog of Hope Not Hate – an Establishment front, I think – but they moderate out all my comments. They pick up any slight ‘wrongdoing’ of UKIP, yet ignore the dozens of mainstream councillors accused of paedophilia and all sorts.

        Dirty leftie freedom-hating idiots stewing in their own deceit and self-importance.

  5. Rose says:

    Slightly OT

    Cheering news.

    Illegal cannabis plants have been growing for months next to iconic London landmarks including Big Ben, Tower Bridge and the Shard

    “Campaign group Feed The Birds planted seeds to protest ‘ludicrous’ laws
    Claim crops show marijuana flourishes in Britain so should be legal”

    “Finn said: ‘The war on drugs is a catastrophic failure, and I think that cannabis growing openly on the streets of London emphasises how ludicrous our drugs laws are.

    ‘Putting a human in a prison cell for using a plant is the crime.’
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2661302/Illegal-cannabis-plants-growing-months-iconic-London-landmarks-including-Big-Ben-Tower-Bridge-Shard.html

    The plant hunters: Adventurers who transformed our gardens would put Indiana Jones to shame

    “Let’s take a walk around a traditional British garden. You see those lilies over there – Lilium regale, with their white trumpets flushed with purple on the outside and a fragrance that hangs in the warm summer air? They were introduced to the UK by Ernest “Chinese” Wilson in 1910. He found them growing in the Min Valley in south-west China and as he was collecting them, he was caught in a landslide and broke his leg in two places. The injury left him with a limp for the rest of his life.”

    “Look, there’s the humble flowering currant, Ribes sanguineum, whose rosy-red racemes mark the beginning of spring. This was introduced by David Douglas, as were lupins, California poppies and many of the conifers that are now staples of our arboretums and suburban gardens.

    Douglas paid for his discoveries with his life: he was killed in Hawaii at the age of 35 in a pit dug to trap wild bullocks.

    Rhododendrons? The greatest collector of all was arguably George Forrest, who died of a heart attack in Yunnan in 1932 after a career that included fighting off xenophobic Tibetan “lamas” and succumbing to malaria. In 1924, Forrest also discovered Camellia saluenensis, which formed the basis of the hardy Williams hybrid camellias, which we grow in gardens all over the UK.”

    “Ever since the Romans brought us plums, walnuts, roses and parsley (among other things), the British have been foraging in all corners of the globe for plants that can be put to use back home. The early American explorers brought back potatoes and tomatoes, and by the 1630s, more than 100 North American species of tree were being grown in England.”
    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/the-plant-hunters-adventurers-who-transformed-our-gardens-would-put-indiana-jones-to-shame-7936364.html

    My garden contains all these and more and after all these years some have become naturalised to the English climate, even potatoes will overwinter in the soil. Who knows what strange and useful plant chemicals they may one day be discovered to contain?

    To single out one or two imported plants that may have been found useful by some is a crime against nature and commonsense.

    Cemetery’s yew tree clippings are being used to fight cancer
    2013

    “CLIPPINGS from yew trees which have stood in a cemetery for more than 150 years are being used to make drugs to fight cancer.

    The clippings from the trees, which were planted in 1853 and line the avenue leading to the chapel at the Milton Road Cemetery, Weston-super-Mare, will be used to make anti-cancer drugs Docetaxel and Paclitaxel.

    The clippings are used as the raw material by pharmaceutical companies for the production of the drugs, used primarily to treat breast and ovarian cancers.

    Both drugs can also be made synthetically, but clippings, including the soft shoots of the tree and its needles, are still collected and used across Britain.”
    http: //www.westerndailypress.co.uk/Cemetery-s-yew-tree-clippings-used-fight-cancer/story-20018490-detail/story.html

    Should we ban yew trees?

  6. west2 says:

    The Milgram and Stanford experiments show that people will submit to an authority. Tobacco control now have a ‘Hardcore’, ‘Drones’ and ‘Authority’, The Hardcore will scream in pain as the Drones submit to authority and apply the next logical step. How does it stop? Either by a greater force or another authority intervening to call a halt. So far no greater force or authority has showed up, so how else could this situation resolve itself?

    Thinking about Newtons 3rd law we seem to have this situation: One force applied and, not one, the sum of two forces pushing back. Push back force one from the hardcore (really the good guys) and push back force 2 from the extremists (this doesn’t go far enough brigade). So effectively there are two TCI forces operating. F(moderate)=F(extreme)+F(good guys). Currently the TCI are able to deceptively split their forces to reduce the effect of the good guys. If the moderates were linked directly to the extremists then we would have F(moderate)+F(extreme)=F(Good guys) thus equalising the situation.

    A second approach is to undermine the authority of TCI. I thought the e-cig situation would help to achieve this, however they seem happy to be ‘sleeping with the enemy’, effectively endorsing TCI authority. A more fruitful area seems to be In the PP arena, PP has been tried in Australia and failed although TCI are rapidly trying to turn it into a victory. The more they try, the more they are exposed. What happens in the UK will be interesting.

  7. Rose says:

    What painful ignorance to even ask such a question.

    Open thread: are we a nation of loners?

    “British people are also less likely to know their neighbours or have strong friendships than those anywhere else in the EU, according to the Office for National Statistics.”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/wellbeing/10911416/Open-thread-are-we-a-nation-of-loners.html

    Well, at least 20% of us are now, thanks to TC’s promotion of social denormalisation practices.

  8. harleyrider1978 says:

    Chicago Offers Citizens $100 to Tattle on Cigarette Tax Cheats. For the Children!

    http://reason.com/blog/2014/06/18/chicago-saving-kids-from-cigs-by-bribery

  9. harleyrider1978 says:

    ROFLMAO WEVE TOTALLY DEFEATED THE NAZIS IN KENTUCKY NOW!

    Court overturns Bullitt smoking ban

    Three years into court proceedings, the Kentucky Supreme Court has issued a final ruling that overturns a smoking ban approved by the Bullitt County Board of Health.

    The board exceeded its authority, the court said, so the ban is invalid.

    Opponents and supporters of the smoking ban — which prohibited smoking in all workplaces, including bars and restaurants — argued their cases before the Kentucky Supreme Court in April. The hearing followed mixed rulings from Bullitt Circuit Court and the state Court of Appeals.

    The county board of health approved the ban in 2011. Board members argued that preventing health risks caused by secondhand smoke falls under its jurisdiction, as provided in a state law that allows it to adopt regulations “necessary to protect the health of the people.”

    However, Bullitt Fiscal Court and the eight cities within the county claimed in a lawsuit that Fiscal Court is the only legislative agency that can enact a countywide smoking ban.

    They asked Bullitt Circuit Court to prevent the board of health from implementing the ban. Bullitt Circuit Judge Rodney Burress agreed that the board did not have that authority and stopped the ban from taking effect.

    The state Court of Appeals later overturned Burress’ ruling, saying the board has the right to impose regulations involving public health, including a smoking ban.

    The decision from the Kentucky Supreme Court reverses the Court of Appeal’s ruling and reinstates Bullitt Circuit Court’s judgment, according to court documents.

    http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/local/bullitt/2014/06/19/court-overturns-bullitt-smoking-ban/10885171/

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      It means all the county and citywide bans implemented by health boards are now REPEALED

      • harleyrider1978 says:

        2013-SC-000023-DG.pdf

        KY Supreme court ruling

        • harleyrider1978 says:

          an increase in the aggregate power of administrative agencies over the recent decades, if left unchecked, invites the ascendance of a fourth branch of government—the regulatory state. The trustees of our state and federal constitutions must bear this burden with pragmatic resolve so, that government may effectively function in the 21st century without abdicating sovereignty. The balancing of freedoms is the most delicate task of a democracy for which there is no judicial panacea. A free people vest that onerous duty to those whom they have entrusted through the elective process.”

        • harleyrider1978 says:

          a fourth branch of government—the regulatory state

          I think by now the top of the government has figured out nobody is safe in todays world.

          They are warning us to beware and to end it now………….Thru the ballot box as the UK just did with UKIP and the Australians did last summer.

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      Somebody go nail this jerk as the newspaper has banned me as usual

      Freedom? Freedom to pollute the public air with carcinogens? Why should drug addicts going through withdrawal not be required to get their fix outside where they don’t jeopardize the health of innocent people, especially young children who are more susceptible to the harmful effects of their drug?

      http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/local/bullitt/2014/06/19/court-overturns-bullitt-smoking-ban/10885171/

  10. beobrigitte says:

    And so Tobacco Control will come to be seen as a band of insane witch-hunters, persecuting hundreds of millions of people.
    What do you mean by will come to be seen? As I am typing my response, BBC news has just announced that children find it easy to get hold of e-cigarettes…..
    The band of insane witch-hunters forgot one thing – they were only able to lobby the smoking ban on the grounds of this “ultra-hyper-super-dangerous-passive-smoke”!

    They will one day rival the Nazis (to whom they are closely related, and perhaps even identical) in infamy. And most likely their principal officers will, like the Nazis, be tried and sentenced.
    Now would be a good time!!!

    It’s a resistance that is almost as physical as Newton’s Third Law of Motion: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

    I, too, am more determined than ever to carry on smoking. I am taking this a step further; I am no longer BUYING tobacco in the UK. I also support a new-ish industry (e-cigs) which is also under attack by tobacco control&friends.
    It’s become a matter of honour for me, too!!!

  11. harleyrider1978 says:

    What are some of the challenges you face in your work?

    A serious challenge is the tobacco industry and their lobby in governmental structures. They oppose all of our efforts to implement the FCTC as well as national legislation, plans, etc.

    Another serious challenge is a lack of resources. All donor support finished last year and Georgia still has no multidisciplinary state program on tobacco control or sustainable funding mechanism to implement tobacco control activities. Administering mechanisms are also weak

    http://www.globalbridges.org/Community/Member-Spotlights/Advancing-tobacco-control-in-Georgia

  12. harleyrider1978 says:

    Part  II  ±  The  vision  for   an  endgame  

    Part  I  of  the  report  shows  that  although  most   Member  States  in  the  Region  and  the  EU  are   legally  bound  to  the  WHO  FCTC,14  and  despite   visibly  advancing  in  the  implementation  of   tobacco  control  measures,  many  countries  in  the   Region  still  lack  mechanisms  to  address  or   properly  enforce  the  core  provisions  outlined  in   the  treaty,  even  after  almost  a  decade  of  its   entering  into  force.  Besides  competing  priorities   and  reported  political  inattention,  many  still   consider  confronting  the  tobacco  epidemic  as  a   health  sector͛s  responsibility  and  part  of  the   problem  may  be  lack  of  consideration  given  to  the   issue  by  non-­‐health  sectors.  Furthermore,  as  in   the  rest  of  the  world,  the  tobacco  industry͛Ɛ   strong  presence  in  the  Region  poses  a  threat  to   effectively  implementing  further  tobacco  control   measures.     The  success  of  some  countries  in  the  Region  in   implementing  comprehensive  tobacco  control   policies  is  evident  with  a  sharp  reduction  in   smoking  prevalence.  A  natural  next  step  for  these   countries  and  for  their  followers  is  the  increased   interest  on  what  are  coined  ͞endgame͟  strategies.   This  discussion  has  only  been  reflected  in  the   political  agenda  or  national  tobacco  control   strategies  in  the  last  four  years,  with  the   exception  of  Bhutan  who  banned  the  sale  of   tobacco  products  in  2004  (30).     But  what  does  endgame  mean?  The  expression   comes  from  chess  and  chess-­‐like  games,  where   the  endgame  (or  end  game  or  ending)  is  defined   as  the  stage  of  the  game  when  there  are  few   pieces  left  on  the  board  (31).  By  analogy,  some   governments  have  outlined  a  strategic  plan  to   further  reduce  tobacco  prevalence  to  a  defined   low  level  ʹ  usually  close  to  zero  ʹ  within  a  set   period  using  the  ͞tobacco  endgame͟  approach.   The  strategic  plan  may  grant  or  not  exceptions  to   products  such  as  smokeless  tobacco  electronic   nicotine  delivery  systems  (ENDS).  

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      Strategies  that  can  result  in  an  endgame  consider   tobacco  as  a  systemic  ʹ  as  opposed  to  an   individual  behaviour  ʹ  issue,  go  beyond  the   demand  reduction  measures  by  addressing,  with   priority,  the  supply  side,  and  involve  a   fundamental  de-­‐normalization  not  just  of  tobacco   use,  but  of  the  tobacco  industry,  by  removing   profitability  and  by  making  the  industry  liable   (32,33).  Furthermore,  a  focus  on  disadvantaged   groups  and  policy  action  with  tobacco  control   address  the  wider  social  determinants  of   inequalities  and  health.     While  countries  in  the  Region  are  expressing   interest  in  the  matter,  a  firm  commitment  to  a   tobacco  endgame  was  already  made  by  Finland,   Ireland  and  the  United  Kingdom  (Scotland)  who   have  publicly  announced  a  target  year  to  end   tobacco  use  in  their  populations.  These  countries   are  committed  to  decrease  tobacco  use  to  below   5%  by  the  target  year.     In  2010,  Finland  passed  legislation  to  abolish   smoking  with  the  Tobacco  Act  No.  693/1976  (as   amended  through  2011)  by  preventing,  in   particular,  children  and  adolescents  from  taking   up  smoking  with  a  number  of  measures  restricting   marketing  and  supply  of  tobacco  products   including  a  ban  on  the  sale  of  snuff  (34).  Finnish   civil  society  calls  for  2040  as  a  potential  endgame   deadline  with  a  10%  annual  reduction  perspective   (35)  while  a  recent  Government  declaration  aims   for  2030  (36).     Ireland  has  revisited  its  tobacco  control  strategy  in   2013  and  has  proposed  60  recommendations   towards  a  tobacco-­‐free  Ireland  projecting  that  less   than  5%  of  the  population  will  smoke  by  2025   (37).     An  ongoing  discussion  on  the  endgame  for   tobacco  control  is  moving  the  agenda  in  the   United  Kingdom  (38).  Scotland  has  introduced  a   new  tobacco  control  strategy  in  2013,  focusing  on   creating  an  environment  where  young  people   choose  not  to  smoke,  helping  people  to  quit  and   protecting  people  from  second  hand  smoke,   setting  out  the  actions  leading  to  creating  a   tobacco-­‐free  generation  by  2034,  defined  as  a   smoking  prevalence  among  the  adult  population   of  5%  or  lower  (39).  

      • harleyrider1978 says:

        Many  governments  elsewhere  have  pioneered   new  initiatives.  Australia͛s  recent  ground-­‐breaking   move  to  introduce  plain  packaging  in  all  tobacco   products15  eliminated  the  role  of  packaging  as  an   advertisement  strategy  (41).  The  civil  society  in   New  Zealand  has  launched  in  2009  a  target  and  a   series  of  interventions  to  achieve  close  to  zero   tobacco  smoking  prevalence  by  2020,   ƐƵďƐĞƋƵĞŶƚůLJƉŽƐƚƉŽŶĞĚƚŽϮϬϮϱďLJĂDĈŽƌŝ Affairs  Parliamentary  Select  Committee  report   recommendation  that  was  officially  supported  by   the  Government  (42,  43).  The  Australian  state  of   Tasmania  has  passed  in  its  Upper  House  the   tobacco-­‐free  millennium  generations,  banning   cigarette  use  to  anyone  born  after  2000  (44),   following  Singapore͛s  civil  society  proposal  (45).     Tobacco  control  measures  considered  more   radical  are  already  part  of  a  strategy  or  a   regulation  in  some  countries  while  some  new   ideas  aimed  to  move  from  ͞tobacco  control͟  to   ͞the  end  of  the  tobacco  problem͟  are  flourishing   in  academic  papers.  Some  examples  of  existing   and  proposed  tobacco  endgame  proposals  are   listed  in  Table  12.  

        • harleyrider1978 says:

          Nevertheless,  despite  being  an  evolving  topic,  the   endgame  proposals  do  not  seem  to  be  developing   for  most  WHO  regions,  including  the  European   Region,  where  some  countries  are  taking  the  lead   in  endgame  approaches  while  others  are  still   struggling  to  implement  the  core  demand   reduction  measures.  Furthermore,  it  was  recently   acknowledged  that  countries  may  lack  the   structure  needed  to  engage  in  an  endgame   exercise  (55).     Tobacco  is  a  drug  that  is  promoted  and  consumed   within  the  framework  of  a  legal  product  that  is   still  cultivated  apart  from  being  heavily   manufactured  and  traded  in  the  Region.  It  could   be  argued  that  the  future  of  tobacco  should  be   framed  considering  tobacco  as  a  legal  product  and   commodity  besides  its  well-­‐known  health-­‐related   attribute  as  a  drug.  Addressing  these  three   conditions  poses  a  major  challenge  in  the  mid-­‐   and  long-­‐term  public  health  vision  of  the  Region.     The  next  sections  of  the  report  explore  some   ideas  of  future  scenarios  considering  the  three   conditions:  tobacco  as  a  legal  product,  as  a  drug   and  as  a  commodity.

  13. harleyrider1978 says:

    Table  12.  Examples  of  existing  and  proposed  tobacco  endgame  proposals

    Table  12.  Examples  of  existing  and  proposed  tobacco  endgame  proposals     Proposed   measure   Examples  of  involved  actions   Implemented  initiatives  or   academic  proposals   Ban  the  sales  and   import  of  tobacco   products   Eliminate  all  tobacco  sales  and   imports,  with  the  goal  of  reducing   consumption  to  near-­‐zero   Bhutan  ban  on  sales  and   imports  of  all  tobacco  products,   2004  (46)     New  Zealandǯs  decision,  2011   (47)   Smoke-­‐free   generation:  cohort   of  newborn   Re-­‐write  the  current  sales  restriction   on  under18s  to  include  a  generation   of  young  people  born  after  a  certain   date,  e.g.  1  January  2000   Proposed  by  a  Singapore   advocacy  group  (TTFS  Ȃ   Towards  Tobacco-­‐Free   Singapore),  2011  (45)  and  by   the  Australian  state  of  Tasmania   (44)   License  to  smoke   Require  mandatory  smart  card  to  buy   tobacco  conditioned  to   acknowledgement  of  the  risk  and   agreement  to  limited  consumption   Proposed  by  Chapman,  2012   (48)   Content   regulation   Reduce  dependence  induction  factors   and  product  appeal:  ban  additives   and  flavours,  reduce  nicotine  to  non-­‐ dependence  levels  and  eliminate   ventilated  filters   Ban  on  additives:   draft  EU  directive,  2013(12)   Canada,  2010(49)   Brazil,2012(50)     Proposed  by   Benowitz&Henningfield,  2013   (51)   Reduce   availability:  a   Dzsinking  liddz  on   tobacco  supply   Reduce  progressively  the  number  and   types  of  establishments  that  sell   tobacco,  prohibit  new  licenses  and   transfers  of  licenses   Proposed  by  Wilson  et  al.,  2013   (52)   Limiting  profits:   price-­‐cap   regulation   Introduce  a  system  of  price-­‐cap   regulation  to  address  the  market   failure  inherent  to  the  tobacco   industry   Proposed  by  Branston&Gilmore  

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      Future  scenario:  limiting  the   legality  of  tobacco  
      In  an  ideal  world,  tobacco  would  have  never  been   legalized  (55).  Alternatively,  it  could  have  been   converted  into  an  illegal  good  immediately  after   the  first  reports  on  the  harmful  consequences  of   smoking  were  released  in  the  early  1950s  in   Europe  (56).  However,  although  the  tobacco   industry  was  aware  of  the  damages  of  smoking   (57),  it  took  decades  for  governments  to  consider  

      a  regulatory  framework  to  tackle  the  tobacco   epidemic,  first  as  the  pioneering  initiatives  in   countries  such  as  Finland  and  Norway  and  later  by   negotiating  an  international  treaty,  the  WHO   FCTC.     As  a  legal  product,  the  right  to  advertise,  promote   and  manipulate  smoked  and  non-­‐smoked  tobacco   has  historically  been  granted  to  the  tobacco   industry  throughout  the  20th  century  and  is  still   allowed  in  most  places,  including  in  European  

  14. harleyrider1978 says:

    countries,  where  the  TAPS  ban  is  less  regulated   than  in  all  other  WHO  regions  (22).  In  the  future,   on  a  supposed  strictly  regulated  tobacco  market,   no  TAPS  will  be  used  or  even  remembered  by  the   population,  thus  making  tobacco  products   unappealing,  socially  unacceptable  and  more   difficult  to  use.   Legal  products  are  also  subject  to  taxes  and  price   policies,  and  tobacco  is  no  different  from  any   other  good,  becoming  a  desirable  source  of   government  revenue.  Even  though  the  Region  is   exemplary  in  increasing  taxes  and  prices,  this   report  identifies  a  great  disparity  in  CRPs,  perhaps   as  a  result  of  high-­‐  and  low-­‐tax  jurisdictions.  The   resulting  price  differences  point  to  the  need  to   harmonize  taxes  and  prices  in  the  Region  in  order   to  prevent  consumers  from  purchasing  less   expensive  products  from  low-­‐tax  jurisdictions,   thereby  increasing  consumption  (58).    Ideally,  in   the  future,  all  European  countries  would  have   similar  high  prices  on  tobacco  products  as  one   element  of  the  tobacco  endgame  in  the  Region.     Legal  products  can,  in  principle,  be  used  in  social   gatherings;  a  decade  ago,  this  was  the  case  for   smoking  in  many  countries,  although  some   already  considered  tobacco  smoke  a  nuisance.   Some  studies  have  proven  that  second  hand   smoke  harms  others  bringing  the  scientific   evidence  needed  to  support  total  bans.  With  the   introduction  of  smoke-­‐free  regulations,  the   picture  has  changed  and  fines  for  violating  the   smoking  ban  on  both  the  establishment  and  the   smoker  transformed  smoking  into  an  anti-­‐social   behaviour  for  many  societies.  Most  countries  in   the  Region  provide  some  form  of  protection  from   smoke  exposure  in  schools,  universities  and   health  care  facilities,  but  the  majority  of   countries  do  not  provide  smoke-­‐free  laws  in  all   public  places.  Some  countries  in  Europe  still  have   not  fully  implemented  this  simple,  easily  enforced,   core  measure  of  the  WHO  FCTC,  a  situation  that   hopefully  the  Region  will  not  need  to  confront  in   the  future.     Whether  a  product  such  as  tobacco  should  be   legal  or  illegal  is  a  popular  discussion.  Comparing   policies  to  counter  tobacco  use  with  those  to   control  cannabis16  use  can  provide  governments   with  interesting  insights  as  experiences  in  

  15. harleyrider1978 says:

    decriminalizing  and  discussions  to  legalise   advance  in  Europe.  Apart  from  the  relevant   perspective  of  consumers  as  polydrug  users  (e.g.   cannabis  is  usually  smoked  with  tobacco  and   associated  with  alcohol  drinking)  ͞what-­‐if͟ scenarios  on  how  market  controls  could  be   transposed  from  tobacco  to  cannabis  in  a  post-­‐ legalization  environment  are  ignored  (59).     The  fact  that  tobacco  is  by  far  the  most  important   psychoactive  drug  used  in  Europe  and  that  users   are  becoming  increasingly  marginalized  due  to   stronger  tobacco  control  regulations  might  unite   tobacco  products  with  a  restrictive  liberalization   of  certain  drugs  such  as  marijuana  in  a  similar   legal  framework.  The  fact  that  Bhutan  ʹ  the  only   country  in  the  world  that  made  selling  tobacco   illegal  ʹ  has  apparently  not  been  successful  in   ending  tobacco  use17  points  towards  regulation   rather  than  prohibition  (46).  This  scenario  would   leave  the  Region  with  the  challenge  of  framing   future  tobacco  control  policies  in  Europe  with  an   eye  on  how  the  illicit  drugs  policies  are   progressing  towards  legalization.  Eventually,  both   could  be  subject  to  the  same  system,  sold  in   designated  stores  and  dependent  on  a   comprehensive  education  programme  associated   with  a  strong  regulatory  approach  enforced  by  all   countries  in  the  Region.  In  any  case,  despite  the   fact  that  some  European  countries  are  recognized   for  setting  a  global  example  for  tobacco  control,   most  countries  still  need  to  fully  engage  in  the   process  of  building  population  awareness  and   change  social  norms  by  implementing  the   WHOFCTC;  countries  more  advanced  in  the  treaty   implementation  can  consider  testing  new  waters   towards  a  tobacco  endgame.   Future  scenario:  tobacco  as  a  drug  
    Dependence  caused  by  any  tobacco  product  has   been  diagnosed  as  a  mental  and  behavioural   disorder  due  to  psychoactive  substance  use  (60).   Many  or  most  of  tobacco  products͛  contents  and   emissions  were  barely  known  or  studied  in  the   last  century  and  many  research  gaps  still  exist  to   inform  policies.  The  addictive  nature  of  nicotine   contained  in  tobacco  products  has  only  recently   raised  sufficient  public  health  attention  to  engage  

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