Welcome To Wonderland

Came across climate modeler Prof. Christopher Essex giving a fun talk about the unsolved mathematical and computing problems of climate simulation models:

 

There were rather a lot of unsolved problems.

Two stand-out quotes:

“Some big wheels there sat me down in this room and said we want you to come up with the smoking gun that will prove global warming.”

That’s how all research seems to work these days. You have the answer you want already, and you just need to show how to get that answer in a plausible way. You already know who the murderer is, and you just need to show how he managed to do it.

The other quote:

“In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

The fun thing about this quote is where it originates: the IPCC in 2001.

Essex thought that the climate scare had run out of momentum, and they weren’t going to be able to gin it up again. But he said that there were a lot of people who’d invested their careers in climate science, and they’d fade slowly away.

Asked what would come after that, he said, “Oh, some new madness.”

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About Frank Davis

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27 Responses to Welcome To Wonderland

  1. harleyrider1978 says:

    Asked what would come after that, he said, “Oh, some new madness.”

    There is much to be said in that simple statement………………..But I do believe that madness must also belie times of sanity…………..Nature has a way of correcting things that are out of balance with the natural order.

  2. harleyrider1978 says:

    Audrey was out burning Bloomies ass on his last day!!!! ROFLMAO

    Smoking activists light up in City Hall

    nypost.com

    Diehard smoking activists defiantly lit up their cigarettes in City Hall on Monday as a send-off to their anti-tobacco nemesis, outgoing Mayor Bloomberg. But City Hall cops immediately removed the…

    http://nypost.com/2013/12/30/smoking-activists-light-up-in-city-hall/

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      “You’ve shown nothing but disrespect and contempt and not just the choice to smoke, but on decision-making itself. This is my legal private life, not public health. You don’t own me like state property” fumed Audrey Silk of NYC Citizens Lobbying Against Smoker Harassment.

      “Good people disobey bad laws.”

      Smoker Steve Helfer shouted as he was carted off: “Take care mayor . . . .12 years is enough!”

      • harleyrider1978 says:

        When NYC goes radical its time for everyone to go RADICAL GLOBALLY!

        • harleyrider1978 says:

          Audreys speech at the city hall prior to liting up

          TESTIMONY – BILL SIGNING CEREMONY (E-CIG BAN) – 12/30/13

          I’m Audrey Silk, the founder of NYC Citizens Lobbying Against Smoker Harassment (or C.L.A.S.H.).

          We argued in 2002 that the rationale for the ban – protecting nonsmokers — was a fraud built on junk science. A tool to control smokers, not smoke.

          At the Oct. 2002 hearing, you, Mr. Equality, protested, “This bill is not designed to stop you from smoking.” Followed by, “If you want to smoke, that’s your right, and I will defend that.”

          To this day, on the DOH web site, is a FAQ answer to the question, “This is America. Don’t citizens have a right to smoke, even if it hurts them?” The answer: “Yes, smokers are free to continue to smoke” and primary smoking itself “acceptable.”

          Now we have you adding devices with no smoke to what’s called the SMOKE-FREE Air Act. Though discussed secondarily, there’s ultimately not one written word about “exposure” contained in the bill under “Legislative intent.” All four officially documented reasons are that smoking is indefensible and unacceptable that even the thought of it must be censored and intends to codify that intolerance into an Act we were told was not designed to do that.

          It’s really been no secret that you’d lied earlier but this is surely YOUR “you can keep your health insurance, period” moment.

          With the addition of e-cigs to the Act, we have the most concrete proof that it’s never been about the smoke. It’s about hating someone else’s choice and the imposition of Dear Leader’s religion on everyone else.

          In order to “denormalize” not just smoking but people who smoke – helped by once calling yourself “superior” as a reformed smoker and calling smokers “crazy and stupid” — you’ve had to denormalize civil liberties.

          You have shown nothing but disrespect and contempt for not just the choice to smoke, but for individual decision-making itself! This is legal private life, not public health. You don’t own me like state property.

          Today, in the building my taxes equally fund and as a final image in your reign that couldn’t be more antithetical to the legacy you desperately want depicted, I return the respect. Good people disobey bad laws.

  3. Walt says:

    Audrey v Bloomberg. The windup: (This appeared on Page 2 of the NY Post this morning– before the event). More good quotes from her in a friendly article).
    http://nypost.com/2013/12/30/bloombergs-last-act-ban-e-cigs/

    Two other articles in the same edition give you the temper of the times around here. 59 people have been arrested for possessing magazines with more than 6 bullets and it’s now a felony (up from a misdemeanor) to own certain kinds of guns in NY State. Serious jail time. Oh, and 50% of people feel “carb guilt” (could anyone sane make up that term? let alone feel it? ) “from eating breads, pastas and other starchy foods.”

    Weather report: It’s still snowing.

    On your topic: Martha Perske once had an article published detailing how US scientists were “talked to” by biggies at the EPA when their findings on SHS weren’t damning and were given guidance on how to “correct” them. Seems the “tobacco template” has corrupted all science which has ceased to be science.

    • smokervoter says:

      Three cheers for Audrey Silk. I absolutely, positively love that women. She has such a knack for cutting right to the crux. “This is legal private life, not public health. You don’t own me like state property.

      Now if we could get the effing drones to see it that way. But if you’re in hock for a student loan, or cashing a government check, you are in a sense state property. Ditto for the insurance pool aspect of ObamaCare. They’ll use the ‘free’ preventative coverage to badger us all into mandatory Champix or Nicorette just watch. Gotta’ maintain that state vehicle. Same goes for the corporate pools: Great, now we’re both guvmint and private property.

      Who was it that said that if you don’t like Uncle Sam, get your hand out of his pocket.

      Depending on the day of the week I share your pessimism at times, but in the long run I’m an eternal optimist. And I don’t turn the other cheek, I hit back. And hard.

      Audrey Silk always gives me hope and inspiration.

  4. Walt says:

    More.
    ¶ Bloomberg’s last gasp: Suing FedEx for $51M for having shipped cigarettes to NYC residents. (DeBlasio, the new mayor, will continue the case.)

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101302168

    ¶ China, “the world’s largest tobacco consumer,” is weighing a nationwide smoking ban. In the meanwhile, it now bans Party leaders from smoking in public places because–(irony does not have enough levels to deal with this one–) “it harms the image of the Communist Party.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101300795

    • smokervoter says:

      China.

      That’s disappointing. The newly installed Peoples’ Emperor’s wife is leading the effort, it’s her little pet project a la Let’s Move Michelle.

      I was hoping it would fail miserably and it still might.

      Geographically here’s way. When you think back on it, this all started on the west coast in San Fran and then spread eastward – clockwise. It then hopped the Atlantic to the UK/Europe and then spread ever eastward to the Middle East and Russia. China completes the running firestorm. I was kind of hoping that if it stopped there that maybe it would reverse course and work counter clockwise and westward back to San Fran.

      And Stanton Glantz would finally meet his freaking Waterloo pinned down with nothing but the vast Pacific Ocean at his back. And then he’d jump off the Golden Gate bridge like so many others in Frisco have in the past.

    • Frank Davis says:

      I must say that I kinda hope that the Chinese will introduce a ban, because I believe Chinese smoking prevalence is pretty high, and so I expect bans to cause maximum social division and economic damage (same in Russia). So it’s in these countries that bans are most likely to be recognised as economically and socially damaging. There’s also likely to be collateral damage to the Communist Party, although not quite in the way they imagine.

      I’m beginning to think of smoking bans as weapons of mass destruction that cause damage in direct proportion to smoking prevalence. A smoking ban in a country with 0% smoking prevalence will have no adverse effect whatsoever. A smoking ban in a country with 100% smoking prevalence would bring it to its knees. The USA and UK and much of western Europe with 20% prevalence are damaged, but not fatally. Russia and China with 60% prevalence are likely to be far more greatly damaged.

      Is this how WW3 is being conducted?

      • harleyrider1978 says:

        WW3 would be started by the vast political upheavel the UN mandates and treaties are causing. Its pursuing the same objectives we fought Hitler over in ww2……….

        Eugenics policies are but one issue in a vast stew of other causes but mostly the common man on the street is affected and when the fight comes he will have already identified what his fight is for…….He will need no encouragement from the government for its own designs to fight.

        • harleyrider1978 says:

          Frank you and all the rest of us fighting back daily inspire the reasons for the Individual. We spread truth and expose the lies………….This in effect causes dissention and turmoil to the body politic, we are in effect The Revolutionists in our time.

      • smokingscot says:

        For a bunch of reasons, some not that far from yours, I wholly agree.

        Bring it on Vlad! Go for it Mama Peng!

        http://www.npr.org/2012/02/18/147063808/wife-of-chinese-vp-shows-off-vocal-pipes-stripes

        And may I take this opportunity to wish you all a great hogmanay.

  5. Rose says:

    I’ve now seen that much heralded new anti-smoking advert a couple of times.
    A bit of a damp squib really, definately not one of their best. For £3 million I was expecting a bit of decent CGI but it was more like something from the early days of Doctor Who.

  6. harleyrider1978 says:

  7. roobeedoo2 says:

    Frank and the other wonderful knowledgeable posters here, can I ask your opinion on something?

    A while ago, somebody here posted links to some articles relating to tobacco, comets and the black death

    http://www.sott.net/article/234667-Pestilence-the-Great-Plague-and-the-Tobacco-Cure#
    http://joequinn.net/2012/10/09/comets-plagues-tobacco-and-the-origin-of-life-on-earth/

    I’ve been thinking about Earth travelling through the debris of comet Ison (left on it’s way to the sun) and found this video which says the trail will be full of cyanogen, which is toxic.

    I’m sure cyanogen is one of those trace chemicals found in tobacco smoke. And yesterday Rose linked the article about tobacco plants being used for the rapid creation of vaccines. My question is, could having regular contact with tobacco smoke help work to build resistance to a larger dose of cyanogen?

    I’m sorry if this question seems silly but I trust you all to be honest in reply. Thanks.

    And Happy New Year!!

    • Frank Davis says:

      When I looked at Ison’s orbit a few months back, I also looked to see whether the Earth would pass through any debris train left by it. And according to my model, the Earth never came closer than 3.5 million km (about 10 times the distance of the Moon) from any debris train around 15 Jan 2014. So I discounted any danger from it. What seemed much more dangerous to me was what might happen if Ison broke up at perihelion on 28 Nov 2013, and a spray of outbound debris caught the Earth between 29 Dec and 15 Jan. But even that danger seemed tiny, because comet debris would be scattered over a very large area, and Ison was a small comet.

      So in my view the dangers – from both Ison’s inbound debris train, and outbound debris spray – were both approximately zero.

  8. Pingback: Welcome To Wonderland (Must Read Outstanding Ar...

  9. Barry Homan says:

    I loved the little twerp who spoke before Audrey. It supports my theory. Look at him. The little freak who uses anti-smoking and the public health facade to draw attention to himself; he’s got nothing else. I wonder how many parties he doesn’t get invited to.

  10. smokervoter says:

    Just a little background on that song. I was working on building a house with the radio blaring away as usual in order to create the white noise necessary to cancel out the horrific sounds of hammering and sawing when, out of the blue, I heard for the first time “Pencil Neck Geek”. I could scarcely believe my ears. I laughed so hard that I practically had to call it a day afterwards.

    I called the radio station up as soon as I got home to find out the source of the song. I subsequently ordered a copy of the album first thing in the morning the following day. It turned out to be just one song from the album Pencil Neck Geek by the famous American wrestler Freddie Blassie.

    I kid you not, I was so blown away with how wild and crazy the whole concept and presentation of this album was that I seriously thought about buying 1,000 copies of it and selling them at the weekend open air flea market in town.

    There are several lines from this song that I still regularly use in conversation, among them:

    “Soon the geeks were poppin’ up all over town. You couldn’t hardly sneeze without knockin’ one down.” — usually in reference to the dweeb takeover of modern society.

    “I won’t give up ’til the last geek bites the dust.” — in reference to all antismokers and nannies.

    And finally “They say these geeks come a dime a dozen. I’m lookin’ for the guy who’s supplying the dimes.” — and I really am doing so, and on a daily basis.

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