Another Global Cooling Prediction

Via Climate Depot. Russian scientists have been predicting global cooling for some years. Now two German scientists add to the chorus, finding multiple temperature cycles.

Climate reveals periodic nature, thus no influence by CO2

Prof. H. Luedecke and C.O. Weiss (Original German version here.)

We reported recently about our spectral analysis work of European temperatures [1] which shows that during the last centuries all climate changes were caused by periodic (i.e. natural) processes. Non-periodic processes like a warming through the monotonic increase of CO2 in the atmosphere could cause at most 0.1° to 0.2° warming for a doubling of the CO2 content, as it is expected for 2100. Fig. 1 (Fig. 6 of [1] ) shows the measured temperatures (blue) and the temperatures reconstructed using the 6 strongest frequency components (red) of the Fourier spectrum, indicating that the temperature history is determined by periodic processes only. On sees from Fig. 1 that two cycles of periods 200+ years and ~65 years dominate the climate changes, the 200+ year cycle causing the largest part of the temperature increase since 1870.

cyclesFig. 1: Construction of temperatures using the 6 strongest Fourier components (red),  European temperatures from instrumental measurements (blue). It is apparent that only  a 200+ year cycle and a ~65 year cycle play a significant role.

The ~65 year cycle is the well-known, much studied, and well understood “Atlantic/Pacific oscillation” (AMO/PDO).  It can be traced back for 1400 years. The AMO/PDO has no external forcing it is “intrinsic dynamics”, an “oscillator”. Although the spectral analysis of the historical instrumental temperature measurements [1] show a strong 200+ year period, it cannot be inferred with certainty from these measurements, since only 240 years of measurement data are available. However, the temperatures obtained from the Spannagel stalagmite show this periodicity as the strongest climate variation by far since about 1100 AD.

That dotted line at the end of the graph must be their predicted future values. Temperatures look set to drop quite sharply. They end:

Summary

The analysis of solar activity proves the existence and the strength of the 200+ year periodicity which we found from historical temperature measurements, as well as from the Spannagel stalagmite data. This 200+ year cycle is apparently the one known as “de Vries cycle”.

This solar “de Vries cycle together with the AMO/PDO determine practically completely the global climate of the past  (Fig. 1) and the coming time. A significant influence of CO2 on the climate thus has to be excluded. This latter is not surprising in view of the small amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and its weak infrared absorption cross section (also in view of the various proves of N

If they’re right, all these global warming alarmists are going to look pretty stupid.

About Frank Davis

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31 Responses to Another Global Cooling Prediction

  1. Tony says:

    A must watch video for all the global warming denialists out there. Please be sure to watch it in full:
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/06/denier-land-how-deniers-view-global-warming/

  2. Lord Galleywood says:

    I did see a comment somewhere in which we should laugh at the warmists and point fingers – Bollocks to that, we need the whole lot of these scamsters being be brought to book and loads of gaol time for those that have been misleading the people that they serve.

  3. junican says:

    Two things before I go to bed.
    The Millennium Goals which UN delegates accepted were vague. They entailed “The banishing of Poverty and Disease throughout the world”
    Delegates voted for these aspirations, of course.
    Little did they know (or care) that the Zealots (aka communists/fascists/nazis/prohibitionists/eugenicists) interpreted the word “Poverty” to mean wealth distribution via the ‘global heating’ scare. Nor did they know that the word “Disease” meant ‘the enjoyment of tobacco’.

    The UN, WHO, EU need to be torn apart and reorganised. If there is one “£2 per month” charity ad on the TV at this time, there are a hundred, all using the same soggy music and sentimental slop. The problems that these appeals seek to address ought to have been sorted by the WHO years and years ago. How much money has the WHO received and embezzled? What checks exist and who are the checkers?

    • Tom says:

      “The UN, WHO, EU need to be torn apart and reorganised.”

      I would almost nearly agree, except in my mind I am thinking more like, the UN, WHO, EU need to be torn apart and disbanded, forever and permanently, after criminal prosecutions and punishments are doled out in the process against the scoundrels and perpetrators of AGW, SHS and other global frauds of major significance that have ruined so many lives, businesses, economies, stolen peoples’ freedoms and liberties, encouraged and legitimized hateful discrimination against entire classes of innocent individuals and even led to peoples’ deaths.

      For that, there can be no reorganization, only permanent disbandment along with punitive measurements along the lines of the Nuremberg Trials after WWII.

      • Frank Davis says:

        the UN, WHO, EU need to be torn apart and disbanded, forever and permanently,

        I agree. And to think that I used to be supportive once of what I saw as benign institutions!

      • beobrigitte says:

        “The UN, WHO, EU need to be torn apart and reorganised.”

        When can we vote on that?

        The UN: – useless. Abolish.
        The WHO: – a waste of money and time. Abolish.
        The EU: – Individual countries trading: FINE.

        I used to support the idea of an EU without considering the possibility of this EU forming a much lobbied “elite” that that created a dictatorship to it’s members.

  4. harleyrider1978 says:

    December 7, 2013 14:38

    Bar owner charged in the shooting of country singer Wayne Mills

    Chris Ferrell says he shot the singer in self-defence

    Bar owner Chris Ferrell has been charged over the shooting of country singer Wayne Mills

    Wayne Mills was shot dead last month in a Nashville bar after reportedly arguing with the owner over a smoking ban, lighting up a cigarette in the non-smoking area of the downtown bar, called Pit and Barrel.

    Mills was rushed to hospital, but died at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center, police said. Ferrell states that he opened fire in self-defence. No arrests were made at the time, but Ferrell was arrested yesterday (December 6) on a second-degree murder charge, reports the Tennessean.

    Ferrell’s lawyer David Raybin says that his client surrendered as soon as he found he had been indicted on the charge of second-degree murder. Raybin said: “I have every intention of contesting this charge. My client denies that he’s guilty of any degree of homicide.”

    The Wayne Mills Band had been playing for more than 15 years, performing mostly on the college circuit. Country music stars Jamey Johnson and Blake Shelton and American Idol winner Taylor Hicks had opened as support acts for the band early on in their careers. Shelton tweeted: “Extremely sad to hear about the death of my old friend Wayne Mills.”

    The pub where the incident took place, Pit and Barrel, was due to have featured on a TV programme called Bar Rescue, which features struggling bars given makeovers by a nightclub expert on the Sunday following the death, but cable network Spike TV subsequently decided to pull the episode.
    Read more at http://www.nme.com/news/various-artists/74286#HG8DH58T984bWqTJ.99

    • Tom says:

      It is shameful to say, but more than likely the attorney for the murderer will attempt to sway the jury to voting for not-guilty by inciting hateful prejudice against smokers and saying that the bar owner was only defending himself against a smoker, thus should be acquitted. It’s disgusting and horrible, but I bet that is the line of defense that is going to come to surface, something about it being “understandable” “given the circumstances”, meaning, the deceased was smoking, thus “deserved it” no doubt.

      Already they have it at 2nd degree instead of 1st degree, which would seem more appropriate, given it was in direct response to the deceased smoking a cigarette and quite possibly having shot him square in the back – no “self defense” about it, other than how jurors’ minds can be manipulated, using anti-smoking nuances to invoke hate and prejudice – being the key.

      • harleyrider1978 says:

        He is charged because his stories didn’t jive with the physical evidence on several counts……..as said by the police.

      • harleyrider1978 says:

        Tom in Tennessee this case maybe the turning point,I know tennesseans and they are not apt to see people shot over smoking………This could blow up big enuf to possibly end in repeal of the statewide ban.

        • harleyrider1978 says:

          You can be assured I will be wearing out ten state legislators over the next year with it!
          Never let a good tragedy go to waste as they say. If the bastards had listened to me to start with over the last several years with my incessant phone calls to the govenors and lt govenors office this murder might not have occurred at all!

        • harleyrider1978 says:

          Yes Im a ROYAL PAIN IN THE ASS WHEN IT COMES TO THE SMOKING BAN! ASK ANYONE………….

    • smokingscot says:

      Pit and Barrel. Opened in January this year and in deep trouble within 9 months.

      The comments on this link explain much about the owner

      http://www.barrescueupdates.com/2013/11/bar-rescue-pit-and-barrel-boondoxxx-bbq.html

      It’s a dump.

      Google images have it in more detail, including many photos of your family friend.

      https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1024&bih=484&q=pit+and+barrel+nashville&oq=pit+and+&gs_l=img.1.1.0l10.1913.5916.0.8714.8.6.0.2.2.0.714.1974.0j1j4j6-1.6.0….0…1ac.1.32.img..0.8.2031.Q69lVObSHXU

      “Self defense”, by using a gun against an unarmed man! Wrong. Very wrong.

  5. waltc says:

    @ Tom:
    1st degree murder is premeditated and only premeditated murders are charged as 1st degree. 2nd degree is spontaneous. IIRC, there’s something below 2nd that’s called ( think) voluntary manslaughter which is (I think) the first and worst scenario you imagine: the acknowledgment that shooting the guy was provoked by the victim and the shooter at the time thought it was factually or emotionally justified. e.g., the smoker was threatening the lives, not only of the shooter but of everyone in the nonsmoking section with his SHS.

  6. Pingback: We may have the Climate sums wrong | roddem

  7. Here’s an interesting one from the WHO about their past and future plans.
    Know thine enemy!!

    http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-12-06/despite-sky-high-tobacco-taxes-and-ad-bans-some-europeans-are-smoking-more
    “Is Europe losing the war against smoking? The prevalence of smoking has risen in France, the Czech Republic, and Albania since 2005, and smoking by girls and women is increasing at an “alarming” rate” across much of the Continent, the World Health Organization says in a report issued this week.”

    Click to access European-Tobacco-Control-Status-Report-2013-Eng.pdf

    • Rose says:

      Is Europe losing the war against smoking? The prevalence of smoking has risen in France, the Czech Republic, and Albania since 2005, and smoking by girls and women is increasing at an “alarming” rate” across much of the Continent, the World Health Organization says in a report issued this week

      I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that were true.
      These miserablists that go on and on about smoking to people who had no intention of smoking in the first place, calling their loved ones filthy addicts and making their relatives stand outside hospitals were bound to cause a reaction in the end.

      They caught my attention with all those posters of dripping engine oil after 1962 , previously I could see no benefit in smoking but if they were going to lie to me about the nightshades, there had to be something I’d missed.

      • beobrigitte says:

        I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that were true.

        It is true. Just travel. Even in the States (in a very strong anti-smoker’s stronghold!) I was offered at least twice daily 1$ for a cigarette!
        On arrival at the airport (after the hug you give to one you rarely get to see!!!) the first thing my non-smoking relatives told me: “Don’t worry about the smoking lark – everyone smokes here. It’s just like England, you know…. the pubs get fined more than you would get if you run someone over in the streets….”
        On visiting a brewery I announced to my travel companion (in my usual voice) that I was just going for a ciggie and half the room followed me out…

        There is even one tiny little country in Europe in which people just ignore the laws they don’t like!! The smoking ban is one of them.

        These miserablists that go on and on about smoking to people who had no intention of smoking in the first place, calling their loved ones filthy addicts and making their relatives stand outside hospitals were bound to cause a reaction in the end.

        This reaction is what these miserable existences are so desperate to avoid by trying to extend existing nonsensical laws.
        In economic turns, politicians are creating one financial bubble after the other; all of which eventually burst. The long time, STEADY, income from ESTABLISHED businesses, such as the tobacco industry, is being pushed into a corner.
        An old saying is that: ” if you are told you can make fast money, you make no money, you lose all you’ve got”.

    • beobrigitte says:

      Click to access European-Tobacco-Control-Status-Report-2013-Eng.pdf

      A roadmap for a tobacco free Europe…..
      Furthermore, the specific endgame policies addressing tobacco as a commodityshould be sufficiently robust to withstand challenges under the World Trade Organization…

      SPECIFIC ENDGAME policies… Interesting.

      And this “withstanding challenges under the World Trade Organization”?

      The possible next 6 steps to a tobacco free Europe …..

      No. 3:
      “Prevent interference of the tobacco industry & their friends in public health and tobacco control policies.”

      HOW will tobacco control do that? Some of tobacco control’s friends might just strap explosives around their waste and enter a tobacco producing plant? Or, shoot smokers on sight?
      Or maybe, just maybe, tobacco control sends out it’s lobby force again…..

      “TRANSPARENCY in the eventual interaction between government representatives and the tobacco industry.”

      Bring it on!! At the same time, though, just to be fair, we want TRANSPARENCY in past, current and eventual interaction between government representatives and tobacco control!
      Furthermore, we would like to see how much of the tax payers cash is thrown at the tobacco industry and tobacco control.

      What is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.

      European Tobacco Control is a Geisterbahn (ghost train) full of members mirroring the ultimate Gruselkabinett (chamber of horrors).

      Btw, I heard the the MPs were just awarded a wage rise since it has become increasingly difficult for them to survive on £66 000 p.a. I trust their European counterparts will are currently looking at their income, too.

      Financial incentives work? TRANSPARENCY HERE!!! And NO detail omitted, however small it may seem…..

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      Frank you best use this chart and breakdown on the cancer run a few days back……….its pretty convincing on the fallout theory

  8. Steve Kelly says:

    No, no, they’re all wrong. The real and oncoming threat is Global Stasis. It won’t heat up. It won’t cool down. The temperature is going to lock in, probably today, right where it is. It will never change again.

    Anyway, comparing the omniscient scientific reports from various infallible scientists, I don’t see how else they can be reconciled into an “irrefutable consensus of scientific opinion” except as a determination of Global Stasis.

    The result of Global Stasis, surely, will be boredom, lassitude, depression, and the eventual suicide of every human being on Earth. So we’re doomed by Global Stasis, just as we were by Global Warming, and also by Global Cooling. I’d say that was a scientific inevitability. In fact I just checked with “Dokta” Stanton Glantz and he agrees. So that’s that.

  9. garyk30 says:

    “If they’re right, all these global warming alarmists are going to look pretty stupid.”

    The ‘man caused’ type already do.

  10. junican says:

    The German research, assuming that it is correct, rather puts paid “The Pause” claim as well, doesn’t it?

  11. beobrigitte says:

    Climate reveals periodic nature, thus no influence by CO2

    Time permitting, in recent months I have been reading much about this “man-made” global warming disaster. There is plenty of of alarmists’ literature out there but they did not answer my questions.
    We all know our planet wobbles and the poles do shift.

    The in the 1970s (!) predicted global warming did not happen. Yeah, there is this thing about the “from man created holes in the ozone layer”, glaciers melting at a higher than previously observed rate etc. etc. My question: WHAT EXACTLY CAUSED the last ice age? And the one before that?
    I do lean more towards a natural cycle.

    That does not mean that I am for knocking down the rain forests for more stuff none of us really needs or, indeed WANTS, until it is presented.
    This is a spiral, not continuous, steady, stabilizing growth!

    Right now we all are spiralling in all directions; “this planet’s destruction is man made”…. “We need more health laws” … “Living longer – work longer” (even though the youngsters at the start of their working life can’t find a job as the 70-year old is still forced to occupy his) …
    “A vaccination that delays Alzheimer’s disease/dementia”… “Recycling waste – we got too much of it, the landfill sites are full” … “You must be competitive, it’s good!”… “you are too fat!!!” … “You are anorexic”… “to become a somebody you have to deny yourself toilet breaks and work mob everyone around you”…

    It’s a great world, isn’t it? Can I have the one in which there are pubs, a work-life balance thus mental health (much more important than physical health!) where I can after work sit with friends inside a pub?
    Can I have nothing about ‘destroying the environment’ if I choose e.g. the good old fashioned light bulbs or take a plane because it is so much quicker and less stressful?

    CAN I HAVE A LIFE?

  12. Tony says:

    In case people have been put off by my description of the video I posted at the top of this thread, I should point out that it is a spoof. The funniest thing I’ve seen for years.

  13. Pingback: Another Global Cooling Prediction - LOL! | Vape...

  14. Pingback: Lexington Libertarian | Oh ,Oh Now It’s Global Cooling

  15. Mike says:

    If you take any finite data set you can do a Fourier decomposition and derive a set of frequencies that will repoduce the data. But this has no predictive value. Some of the preiods may happen be part of long term natural oscilations, but not the whole set.

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