The long slow count of mail-in votes on Proposition 29 (to add $1 tax to a packet of cigarettes) in California seems to be approaching its end, and it’s getting quite nail-biting.
Currently, with about 5 million votes counted, the No vote is 27888 ahead of the Yes vote, with an estimated 111,472 uncounted votes remaining. Given those figures, for Yes to win, it has to get over 62.5% of the remaining votes.
H/T Junican for this link to a pdf showing the current remaining uncounted votes, by county. It appears to be being updated as votes come in.
I’ve taken a map of all the counties in California and marked it up with dark red for counties with the most votes remaining, light pink for the counties with least, and added the actual numbers in white.
Is it likely that Yes can get 62.5% or more of the remaining votes? As best I know Northern California (NorCal) is all antismoking counties and Southern California (SoCal) is all smoking counties. So far the antismoking counties seem to have gone 2/3 Yes, and the smoking counties 2/3 No.
So if all the counties north of San Luis Obispo are antismoking, then that’s 64,765 votes, with 2/3 Yes amounting to 43,177 Yes, 21588 No.
The southern counties add up to 46,714 votes in total, with 15,571 Yes, 31,143 No.
So the total number of Yes votes is 58,748.
And the total number of No votes is 52,731.
So Yes picks up another 6017 votes, but that only reduces the No lead to about 22,000. So that’s my prediction. And Stanton Glantz can kiss goodbye to $735 million. And a few days ago, with the lead down to 13,000 it must’ve seemed like they could pull it out.
But it may only be on 6 July that the final tally will be declared. Yet more uncounted votes may show up by then.
Smokervoter (in San Bernardino?) with his huge spreadsheet and encyclopedic knowledge of his home state may have different ideas.