I remain unconvinced that Theresa May actually is going to invoke Article 50 next Wednesday, 29 March 2017, and thereby start the process whereby Britain leaves the EU.
Her reason for not invoking it right now was recently given as: her wish not to spoil the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome, on 25 March 1957. How very thoughtful of her.
But on the 31th of March, new provisions come into effect across the EU, whereby member states will only be able to leave the EU with the permission of several other member states. All the member states of the EU are about to become locked into it. Nobody will be allowed to leave (I’ve
haven’t yet now managed to find Rose’s link again).
So my reading of it is that all Theresa May has to do, having delayed invoking Article 50 for 279 days since the Brexit vote of 23 June 2016, is to delay just one more day, and – bingo – the new provisions come into effect on Thursday 30 March, the 280th day, and Brexit will require the permission of other EU countries before it can come into effect.
And it shouldn’t be too difficult to arrange for a single day’s delay. Somebody could forget to bring their pen. An official car could have a blow-out. There’ll be snow on the ground, or else that old staple of British Rail, “leaves on the tracks.”
I have a lot of reasons for suspecting that this might happen. First and foremost among these is that, up until the Brexit vote, Theresa May had been a Remainer. But somehow or other, almost overnight after the vote, she changed her tune, and declared that “Brexit is Brexit.” But did she really change her mind? Why should she have?
For another reason for suspecting that something like this will happen is that the political class in the UK has been more or less wedded to Europe for the past 40 years. In fact, the political class across the whole of Europe has been, and remains, wedded to the idea of the EU for even longer. It’s the ordinary people of England, particularly those outside the cities, who never signed up to the EU “project”. And when have the ordinary people of England ever really mattered to the British government? When have the people ever had a say in affairs of state – particularly ones this important? When, for that matter, have any of the peoples of Europe ever had a say in matters of state policy?
It would of course be a huge betrayal of faith if Article 50 isn’t invoked next Wednesday. Theresa May would have double-crossed the British people. But it won’t be the first time that they’ve been double-crossed in recent years.
After all, the UK Labour government double-crossed the British people by introducing a complete and comprehensive public smoking ban on 1 July 2007, after promising in their manifesto that they would only impose a ban in pubs that sold food as well as alcohol. That manifesto promise went out the window after Labour were re-elected, and the 20% – 25% of the UK population that were smokers were thrown under the bus. They’ve been completely ignored ever since. And if the British government can ignore 25% of the British population, what’s to stop them ignoring an additional 25% or so? If you can ignore 25% of the population, why not 50%? Or, in the case of the EU referendum, 52%? In fact, why not simply ignore everybody? And we’d then be back with something like either an absolute monarchy, or – more likely – an oligarchy.
The EU “project” is one in search of political power and influence. A century ago, more or less the whole world was run by Europe. Many European states had overseas colonies or empires. Britain’s Royal Navy ruled the waves. That world was shattered first by WW1 and then again by WW2. And ever since Europe has never enjoyed the status it once had. It’s been instead just a buffer zone between the USA and the USSR, and a shadow of its former self. So the EU “project” is really one of recovering Europe’s lost status and power and influence. To achieve this, the lost overseas empires are being replaced by a single European empire, which will be able to bang its shoe on the table in the UN, and be heard once again.
The EU has been slowly and patiently pieced together for over 60 years. That’s why they’re having a big 60th anniversary celebration right now. The departure of the UK from the “project” is a catastrophe for it. It more or less torpedoes it completely. Are they going to allow that to happen? Are they going to roll over and accept the death of this dream? Of course not. Particularly when the European political class is fully on board with that dream. Referendums have been ignored before, many times. And this one must be ignored too. Silly ordinary people can’t be allowed to capsize a project of such global importance.
It’s no different in the USA, where silly ordinary Americans had the temerity to vote for that silliest and most ordinary of Americans, Donald Trump, as their 45th President. Is the US “Deep State” – i.e. the entrenched US political establishment – going to allow this maverick to ride roughshod over all their plans? Of course not. They’re going to thwart him at every opportunity they get. They’ve already managed to stifle his attempts to stop Muslim terrorists entering the USA at will. They’ll probably also manage to stop him building his Wall as well. And just yesterday they managed to stifle his plans for replacing Obamacare. Donald Trump may well have become President, but it increasingly looks like he may not be able to preside over very much more than his own desk in the Oval Office of the White House.
For the political class of both the USA and Europe have no interest whatsoever in what silly ordinary people want. Nothing is clearer and sharper about this division than in the matter of immigration. Ordinary people want to preserve their own cultures and languages and national identities. But the political classes want to destroy those cultures and languages and identities. That’s why they want, like Angela Merkel, to import millions of Muslim migrants and terrorists into Europe. For an essential part of the “project” is the destruction of national identities and national cultures and national languages. What better way to do that than to flood Europe with millions of people from a completely different culture? Even the terrorists are welcome, as part of this process. Because the terrorists can be used to demoralise the people. And the rapists are welcome too. What better way for a people to be reduced to subjection than to have their women raped en masse? And for the rapists to then be protected by the state? And for prominent politicians to tell people to “get used to it”? If there’s rapine and murder all over Europe right now, it’s because those in authority want rapine and murder. Because they want to suppress national identity and national culture and national language, and create a docile society of obedient serfs. Rape and murder have always been political weapons: prior to her revolt in 60 AD against the Roman occupation of Britain, Boudicca was flogged, and her daughters raped.
Anyway I won’t be very surprised if there’s some hiccup, and Theresa May won’t actually invoke Article 50 next Wednesday. And the very next day, on the 280th day after the Brexit vote, it will become impossible for her to invoke Article 50. If this happens there’ll be something like an insurrection in England, much like there was after the Brexit vote, and the election of Donald Trump. The Remainers will be jubilant, of course. And the political divisions in England will deepen sharply. But they’ll also deepen everywhere else in Europe. Although I think they were going to deepen anyway. And they were going to deepen anyway because the aspirations of ordinary people are now more or less completely opposite to those of the ruling European political classes. They are, in fact, almost perfectly contradictory. For, Brexit or no Brexit, Europe is heading for a civil war that will pit all the peoples of Europe against their ruling classes, as the contradictions become intolerable. It’ll be a Spanish Civil War, but on a European scale.
Of course, Theresa May actually invoke Article 50 next Wednesday. I’ve just been setting out what seem to me to be a few good reasons why she may not.