Isis Survey Analysis

Since the New Year I’ve been looking at the 400+ completed questionnaires that came out of the Isis Social Impact Survey. I’ve written a programme that can pull out particular groups (e.g. women), and display their responses, either as pie charts or completed questionnaires.

I’ve put up one of these over on the private Social Impact Survey blog (accessible only by Isis pollsters), but there’s been little response so far, except from Roobeedoo. So I thought I’d post something about it here, to see if I can raise a bit more interest. Because I’m finding it very interesting.

The survey questionnaire asks a number of questions (you can see one of the questionnaires here), and the responses indicate whether, in the aftermath of smoking bans, people are going to pubs and cafes and restaurants more or less, seeing friends and family more or less, spending more or less time at home, and so on. They’re also reporting in which places they’ve been adversely affected. And quite often they’re adding their own comments.

All of this can be reported. But I’ve come to realise that some quite interesting things can be teased out if combinations of answers are considered.

For example, some people say they’re going to pubs and cafes less, and spending more time at home, but also seeing the same or more of friends and family. It seems to me that such people are the ones who have started having smoky-drinkies at home. Their social lives have shifted from the pubs and cafes to their homes. And they may indeed see more of their families if their behaviour has changed in this manner. They might also be people whose overall quality of life has diminished little or not at all. It might even have improved.

But then there is the group that goes to pubs and cafes less, spends much more time at home, and also sees less of friends and family. These would seem to be the people who have become socially isolated by smoking bans. (I should know, because I’m one.)

So that’s two quite interesting bits of information that might be teased out of the survey.

Also I’ve been wondering if something might be said about the economic impact of smoking bans. If people say they are adversely affected by smoking bans in pubs and cafes and restaurants, and got much less to them, then it would follow that the pub and cafe and restaurant trade would lose custom. But also, if people spend much more time at home, they’re probably spending a lot less. For example, I spend a lot of time at home, and on the days when I don’t go out at all, I spend absolutely nothing. And whenever I do go out, I seem to dribble money wherever I go. The only way I can spend money at home is by buying things online. But I only ever buy a book or two that way occasionally. But maybe other people spend their money online buying music, or games, or whatever. What fraction of the population is online, and how much do they buy online? And do they buy online from their own countries, or do they spend the money elsewhere?

Also, if people say that they are adversely affected at pubs, and also that they go less to them, doesn’t that suggest that if they are adversely affected at hotels, clubs, beaches, etc, they’ll be going less to them too, and spending less money in those places?

Anyway, it seems to me that more information can be teased out of the survey than is readily apparent.

I haven’t thought about what the final report is going to look like. I’m inclined to keep it short and simple, and use graphic displays (e.g. pie charts).  And also write it in the same way that I write this blog, rather than pretending to be ‘academic’ or ‘official’.

I haven’t thought about publication either. I tend to do things one at a time, crossing bridges when I get to them. Once the analysis is complete, and the report is written, I’ll think about that.

I won’t post up any of my findings here until the report is ready. But I’ll periodically post stuff on the Isis Social Impact Survey blog. So if any of the pollsters who took part in the survey want to contribute their thoughts, that will mostly be the place to do it.

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25 Responses to Isis Survey Analysis

  1. smokervoter says:

    This has been one of those days in Southern California where the bar smoking ban really bites in. High temp today here was 10C and the low was -1.67C.

    Brrrrrrr. I can hear the wind machines trying to save the citrus crop. -2.78C is the critical tipping point with oranges.

    • Edgar says:

      The critical temperature for oranges is known to one-hundredth of a degree C?

      • smokervoter says:

        Actually Celsius is Greek to me. The app that I use to do comments with, NoteTab Light, has a nifty little module that converts Fahrenheit to Celsius and that’s what it spit out. I’ve wondered about the two decimal accuracy level myself. I never see it used in practice.

        Oranges go bad at around 27 degrees Fahrenheit. I was a ‘Teenage Citrus Farmer from Mars’ in my youth.

  2. Marie says:

    I have recently come across another unintended consequence of smoking bans that I thought might interest you. Two of my colleagues attended a conference in Austria recently. They stayed in a medium priced family run hotel that appeared to be rather nice and they tell me was very comfortable. Unfortunately they came back from this trip with an unexpected bonus, fleas. Both were covered in bites and had to seek medical attention. When smoking was permitted in hotel rooms, bars and restaurants owners had to have soft furnishings and upholstery steam cleaned regularly. This not only kept the place fresh it reduced the risk of infestation. Now hoteliers are saving on cleaning bills (and no doubt putting specialist cleaners out of business) and guests are getting nasty surprises. I did a little checking and apparently bed bugs and fleas are a growing problem in the hospitality industry and private homes in both the USA and Europe. Whether cigarette smoke has any direct effect on parasite infestations (it certainly keeps mosquitoes away) I cannot say.

    • Rose says:

      Yes it does.

      “Tobacco Stalks – What many fanciers consider to be the ideal nest material, enhancing the breeding results. Provides a soft natural bed for baby birds. Parasites stay away. A natural product that is easy to use. Also ideally suited as floor covering in baskets”.
      http://www.siegelpigeons.com/catalog-loft-stalks.html

      One of my favourites : )

      Nicotine as an Insecticide

      Production and Use of Nicotine 1950

      “One reason for the rapidly growing market that developed for nicotine products was that entomologists and veterinarians who joined agricultural pest-control agencies relied more and more on the products in the fight against increasing infestations. They suggested that the sources of tobacco then available be improved. Tobacco solutions that once were poured away after having served their purpose in tobacco factories were reclaimed and sold for insect control. The effective control of sheep mites and ticks with nicotine dips created a large market for nicotine products. Outbreaks of the parasites during the 1890′s brought about Federal regulations in the United States and made sheep dipping mandatory for interstate shipments. Important markets for nicotine had also been developed in other sheep growing areas. The chemist and chemical engineer were brought into the tobacco business in order to manufacture concentrated products more efficiently”

      “By 1884 tobacco was described as one of the three most valuable insecticides in general use, the other two being white hellebore and soap. Tobacco was then used as a dust or water extract, or the leaves and stems were burned as a smudge for fumigating greenhouses.”

      “BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED strong demand for nicotine, the increased prices of low grades of leaf tobacco, and increased freight rates for moving the raw material, experiments have been under way for several years to find an environment in the United States where high nicotine-producing strains of Nicotiana rustica might be profitably grown. Extract plants in the growing areas might put out the finished product, like 40-percent nicotine sulfate, or a semifinished product of perhaps 10 percent nicotine content which can be shipped to a central plant for purification and concentration. In the absence of available low-grade leaf tobacco, the American production of nicotine now is confined to large plant operations, where the supplies of raw material consumed are thousands of tons annually. Such raw material now is of relatively low nicotine content from 0.3 to I percent. In order to use high-nicotine material llke N. rustica, which has 6 to 10 percent nicotine content in the leaves and a correspondingly high ammonia content, special methods were developed at the Eastern Regional Research Laboratory.”
      http://tobaccodocuments.org/ness/10063.html?zoom=750&ocr_position=above_foramatted&start_page=1&end_page=9

      EPA Pesticide Chemical Code 056701
      http://www.chemindustry.com/chemicals/485135.html

      See synonyms

      “NAC, NAH, Naotin, Natriumnicotinat, NCGC00016268-01, NCI60_001041, Niac, Niacin, Niacin hydrochloride, Niacin [USAN], niacine, Niacor, Niacor (TN), Niaspan, Nicacid, Nicagin, Nicamin, Nicangin, NICO, Nico-400, Nico-span, Nicobid, Nicocap, Nicocidin, Nicocrisina, Nicodan, Nicodelmine, Nicodon, Nicolar, Niconacid, Niconat, Niconazid, Nicorol, Nicosan 3, Nicoside, Nicosyl, Nicotamin, Nicotene, Nicotil, Nicotinate, Nicotinate Ion, Nicotine acid, Nicotinic acid,”

    • Frank Davis says:

      Yes. Tobacco smoke is antibacterial, antifungal, and insecticidal. I think pretty much all smoke is. It’s called fumigation.

      • Rose says:

        True, but not all plants make a pesticide so good that the chemical companies try to imitate it’s action.
        Making cigarettes isn’t the only reason that the tobacco companies got so big.

        ‘Neonicotinoids do not affect bee populations’ – Syngenta

        “EXPERTS from agro-chemical firm Syngenta will give evidence today (Wednesday) at a parliamentary hearing on the use and effects of neonicotinoids.
        The UK Parliament’s Environmental Audit Committee started taking evidence at the beginning of the month and yesterday (Tuesday) heard from the Soil Association, Pesticide Action Network and Buglife.

        The hearing was called to scrutinise Defra’s decision not to revise its pesticide regulation or follow other European countries and temporarily suspend the use of some insecticides.
        Campaigners argue there is evidence to suggest the chemicals have caused a ‘significant’ decline in bee numbers and other pollinators.

        However, Syngenta said laws surrounding agro-chemicals were already ‘very rigorous’ and evidence of bee decline was not ‘field based’.”

        “Mr Gibbs said the chemicals were most commonly used to tackle pests such as aphids and flea beetles in oilseed rape”
        http://www.farmersguardian.com/home/arable/neonicotinoids-do-not-affect-bee-populations-syngenta/51606.article

        Nothing like quite like the real thing though, is there?

        Tobacco companies always seem to lose on price, it’s all that growing and harvesting and processing rather than just dumping assorted chemicals in a vat.

    • Messalina says:

      That’s interesting. I went to Canada last year and I heard that bedbugs were a big problem in Canada and the USA – I think there is a correlation there: nicotine being a natural insecticide and the fact that since a lot of establishments banned smoking, they seem to think that it’s no longer necessary to do any cleaning!

    • smokingscot says:

      Expanding slightly on Marie’s comment.

      Seems the delicate misocapnist’s were none too keen on the underlying stench in some pubs either. Many whinges about mould and other odors once we quit providing a suitable cover for bad plumbing and hygiene.

      And airlines have been reducing the ventilation in their aircraft. Huge numbers of complaints about nausea headaches and picking up all manner of bugs from fellow passengers (colds, flu etc).

      And, to save costs, many are running their air filters well past their recommended service intervals. Rarely heard any of that when they all had a smoking section

      • Messalina says:

        Yes, exactly! Well everyone knows smoking causes every disease under the sun as well as make everything dirty and smelly. So now that smoking’s banned in public places, there’s no need to clean the ventilation filters, toilets, plumbing, upholstery, carpets, floors – or anything! And people no longer need to bathe or wash their hair or clothes ever again!

    • cherie79 says:

      My friend’s daughter has just returned from Germany, Berlin, with the same problem so must be something in what you say

      • smokingscot says:

        It’s worse in winter with aircraft. It’s hellish cold at 30,000 ft and it costs a bundle in fuel to heat the cabin, so they reduce fresh air to just above passing out and recycle it so you can have seconds and thirds of every bug or sniffle on the aircraft.

  3. harleyrider1978 says:

    Legislation approved to ban smoking in cars with children present

    12/01/2013 – 08:31:45
    Smoking in cars, where children are present, will become illegal this summer.

    Radical legislation banning smoking in vehicles carrying children has been approved by the Health Minister James Reilly.

    Under the draft legislation, to be completed by the end of this month, passengers as well as drivers face fines of €3,000 if they smoke in a commercial or private vehicle where children are present.

    It is expected this new law will come into force this July.

    A stumbling block for the planned legislation was the issue of how gardaí would enforce it, how would you prove the age of the child, as well as the rights of a driver.

    But it is understood, under the new legislation gardaí will be allowed rely solely on visual evidence if cases come before the courts.

    The Irish Cancer Society has welcomed plans for the extended smoking ban and said it must be backed by an awareness campaign.

    http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/legislation-approved-to-ban-smoking-in-cars-with-children-present-580884.html

    • harleyrider1978 says:

      The Bloody Nazi Basterds did it anyway and with a 3000 euro fine to boot! Bet the JackBoots were Goose Stepping lastnite!

    • beobrigitte says:

      The Irish Cancer Society has welcomed plans for the extended smoking ban and said it must be backed by an awareness campaign.

      To avoid this disproportionally high fine I urge the Irish to have as from Summer CHILDREN-FREE cars.
      According to the media our children are too fat, anyway. A great opportunity to give children more exercise and let them WALK/take the bus to school. The latter also helps the congestion around schools!

  4. harleyrider1978 says:

    Anon > John Davidson • 16 minutes ago −

    John Davidson,
    What is your opinion of these meta-analyses?

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pm

    http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/

    The site blocked me and I was trying to post this back if anyone wants to for me:

    Lung Cancer a Different Disease in Smokers and Nonsmokers

    PHILADELPHIA — Lung cancer that develops in smokers is not the same disease as lung cancer that develops in people who’ve never touched a cigarette, a new study finds.

    There are nearly twice as many DNA changes in the tumors of people who have never smoked than in the tumors of people who smoke, which suggests the cancer of “never-smokers” is different from smokers’ cancer, said Kelsie Thu, a Ph.D. candidate at the BC Cancer Research Center in Canada.

    “We think this finding provides evidence that never-smoker and smoker lung cancers are different, and suggests they arise through different molecular pathways,” Thu told MyHealthNewsDaily. “Never-smokers might be exposed to a carcinogen, not from cigarettes, that causes their tumors to have more DNA alterations and promotes lung cancer development.”

    http://www.livescience.com/11090-lung-cancer-disease-smokers-nonsmokers.html

  5. harleyrider1978 says:

    harleyrider1978 says:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    January 12, 2013 at 2:58 pm

    Anon > John Davidson • 16 minutes ago −

    John Davidson,
    What is your opinion of these meta-analyses?

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pm…

    http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/…

  6. harleyrider1978 says:

    The site blocked me and I was trying to post this back if anyone wants to for me:

    Lung Cancer a Different Disease in Smokers and Nonsmokers

    PHILADELPHIA — Lung cancer that develops in smokers is not the same disease as lung cancer that develops in people who’ve never touched a cigarette, a new study finds.

    There are nearly twice as many DNA changes in the tumors of people who have never smoked than in the tumors of people who smoke, which suggests the cancer of “never-smokers” is different from smokers’ cancer, said Kelsie Thu, a Ph.D. candidate at the BC Cancer Research Center in Canada.

    “We think this finding provides evidence that never-smoker and smoker lung cancers are different, and suggests they arise through different molecular pathways,” Thu told MyHealthNewsDaily. “Never-smokers might be exposed to a carcinogen, not from cigarettes, that causes their tumors to have more DNA alterations and promotes lung cancer development.”

    http://www.livescience.com/11090-lung-cancer-disease-smokers-nonsmokers.html

  7. harleyrider1978 says:

    Now even Anon’s post is missing……………freeking great

  8. harleyrider1978 says:

    I go back again and now everything is showing up WTF!

  9. harleyrider1978 says:

    Mixed reaction to smoking ban move

    Anti-smoking campaign group ASH Ireland has welcomed reports that new legislation to ban smoking in cars with children could be enacted later this year.

    Under the draft legislation, which has been approved by Minister for Health James Reilly, both passengers and drivers could face large fines for smoking in a commercial or private vehicle carrying children under the age of 16.

    “ASH Ireland first raised this issue, as a possible health initiative, with Minister Harney in 2005,” said chairman Dr Ross Morgan. “In April 2010 ASH Ireland met the newly appointed Minister James Reilly and again pushed for this health initiative to be introduced – and then received a commitment from the Minister that he would proceed as soon as was feasible.

    “We now again encourage the Minister to ensure that there are no further delays with a proposal, which has been with his Department for over seven years” Dr Morgan added.

    However, smokers’ lobby group Forest Éireann described the move as “disproportionate, illiberal and a distraction from the many more serious issues facing our country”.

    Spokesman John Mallon said that while his organisation does not condone adults who smoke in vehicles carrying children, it believed education is far better than legislation.

    “For most people their car is a private space so this is a worryingly illiberal step. What next? A ban on smoking in the home if children are present?” he asked.
    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2013/0112/breaking14.html

  10. smokingscot says:

    Completely O/T.

    There are medics who can think. We are not alone!!!

    http://www.health-matrix.net/2012/12/15/nicotine-the-zombie-antidote/

  11. smokervoter says:

    There’s a fellow with one of those high tech talk shows by the name of Leo Laporte – The Tech Guy, who I guardedly sort of admired. I’m thinking he’s popular in the UK too because many of his callers are from there. I say guardedly because his studio is smack dab in the middle of pink-neck Antismoker Klan Country in coastal Northern California.

    Today he and his guest caller were reporting from the CES conference in Las Vegas and they were swapping tales of health paranoia over contacting the flu. They both were big believers in Purel hand sanitizer. Alas, they both ended up with the flu.

    Leo then complained that they allowed smoking there, something that thankfully was ‘banned in California where I live’. I should have known better all along, he’s a POS (that’s one obvious acronym I’ll resort to using) new age California Glantzhead and I’m not going to boost his ratings anymore. F-you Leo Laporte – The Tech Guy. F-you.

    How much you wanna’ bet the people who smoked at CES got far, far fewer cases of the flu. I know I haven’t picked it up yet. I’m temporarily increasing my tobacco intake just in case.

    Oh yeah, CES stands for Consumer Electronics Show. Undefined acronyms suck eggs.

  12. lysistratatheoriginal says:

    Hi Frank, have been offline (new laptop, changing countries to Greece again) and appear not to be able to log into the Isis site any more. Will keep on trying. Ah – will try logging in to WP.

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